Welcome back to Cheddars.
News wrap after months of negotiations,
officials in Vienna say a nuclear deal with Iran is closer than
ever and an agreement could be reached within the upcoming days.
The deal is expected to reinstate the original 2015
agreement formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
spearheaded by former President Barack Obama.
It was designed to prevent Iran from being able to
build a nuclear bomb and offered relief from harsh economic sanctions
in exchange for curbs of 10 to 15 years of its nuclear activities.
Former President Donald Trump you may remember withdrew the
us from the negotiating negotiating table in 2018.
He re imposed those sanctions and Iran ramped up its progress
in response
joining me now to discuss this christian
White and former State Department senior advisor.
Christian welcome back to the show. Always a pleasure.
How close are we really from a nuclear agreement with Iran?
And can you give us a breakdown of what's in the deal brokered in Vienna?
Sure.
It looks like we're very close based on
not so much statements of specificity from the
biden administration but some leaked reports from other
negotiators and also a demure from the Israelis,
the Israelis and and frankly other Middle East countries
that aren't quite as vocal as the Israelis.
Not happy with the deal, But it appears to be very similar to the original J. c. p. O.
A which does put some constraints on
Iran's nuclear program but also has sunset provisions
including some that in the original plan where expected to take effect in 2025 and
so if we just re enter that plan really it just buys perhaps a few
years um of slowing down stopping whatever you want to say Iran's nuclear program.
Yeah there's also a report from Russian diplomats
who are also involved in these discussions in Vienna
that there'll be a prisoner swap between the United States and Iran.
We haven't heard that from the White House or
from the State Department but it's out there.
It's almost been five years since the US left the agreement in 2018 time has flown by.
I can't believe it's been five years.
But what advances in nuclear technology has Iran made in these past few years.
The original deal actually allowed Iran to keep some of its nuclear technology.
There are two ways to a nuclear bomb. Two main ways. One is through plutonium to 39.
The others through uranium 2 35 bomb we dropped on Hiroshima was that uranium 2 35.
We were so confident in its ability to function. We didn't test it first.
What we tested first was the plutonium bomb.
So Iran is pursuing mainly that uranium project
using centrifuges to make uranium 2 35.
The problem is once you get enough of that all you really have to do is combine it
at high speed and you have a crude nuclear
explosion like the one we used on Hiroshima.
Uh and so there's this concern that Iran has been
refining a rather enriching uranium up to higher levels,
20%,,
80% by some accounts.
Uh and it really, you know, once um you know,
once they have just enough time and enough will to do this,
they can probably amass enough nuclear material that if they want to,
they can cross that barrier to become a nuclear power.
Opponents of the deal warned that the new agreement
will keep the original deadline that was set in 2015
with key restrictions on Iranian nuclear activity that expires
in just a few years as soon as 2025,
which as you know, Christian will be here before we know it.
Why is it so important for the Biden administration
to reach an agreement now under these conditions?
Well, the administration is concerned,
I think frankly they would like a foreign policy win.
What's going on with Russia and Ukraine is obviously unfolding,
but we don't need to remind people that last
summer there was the situation in Afghanistan that was
widely seen as a debacle for the administration and
certainly sunk the president's approval ratings in foreign affairs.
If there's anything in terms of an appropriation that is required.
Um So this isn't a treaty,
it doesn't have to go through the Senate and get two thirds vote,
but it may need appropriations.
The last Iran deal actually did provide some funding
some relief uh and certainly sanctions relief for Iran.
So if the president needs anything from Congress, he's gonna want to get it done
potentially sooner rather than later because no one
knows what's going to happen this november.
And of course the Iranians are, are eager to proceed with this.
There's one other angle, the White House isn't touting this, but if Iranian oil,
whether in part or whole comes onto the world market,
if a lot of those sanctions and restraints on Iranian oil exports come off
the price of oil and therefore the price of gasoline could come down,
even though we'll never import Iranian oil ourselves.
Once you dump it onto the world market, the price of oil should come down globally,
in your opinion, how effective will the will this deal be christian?
I don't think various, but you know,
Iran has had somewhat of a capability to to enrich that uranium all along.
So this sort of enshrines that capability.
I think when they calculate whether or not they're going to create,
build a nuclear bomb themselves in a delivery system,
they'll be looking at other factors rather than this deal,
whether they will be struck by Israel by the United States, whether a cyber attack,
there's a widely sort of reputed cyberattack that's disabled or
at least harm their production capability in the past.
So I think they'll look at real world factors like that also, you know,
there's always talk that Saudi Arabia Egypt and
Turkey might pursue their own nuclear weapons capability.
If Iran gets someone so Tehran is going to have to think long and hard about whether
it wants that to happen.
We know the agreement is going to unfreeze
billions of dollars of Iranian assets overseas.
Could this give Iran more resources to develop its nuclear program moving forward?
Yeah, that's always the fear.
And also that when Iran is flushed with cash,
it can also pursue its other malevolent activities,
it remains the chief exporter of terrorism.
You see Iran extending its reach not only
inside its country with a clerical theocratic regime,
but also next door in Iraq all the way over
in Syria, who knows what's going on?
It's it's traditionally enjoyed fairly warm
relations with its neighbor Afghanistan.
Um so you know,
if you if you avail the Iranian government of more money and
the Iranian government does have a monopoly on oil production and export,
then
sometimes bad things can happen
if a deal is reached. How can we ensure that Iran keeps its promise.
It only enriches uranium for civilian purposes
that will come down to inspections and in the past,
Iran has thwarted some of those activities
or even when violations have been detected,
given answers that don't really make a lot of sense.
So it will come down to how much this deal allows to be inspected.
Is it anytime anywhere including military facilities which have been off
limits in the past or is it going to be constrained.
There are a couple of,
there's an underground facility in Natanz in another and comb that
are particularly worrisome because those are
thought to have centrifuges underground,
um where it'll be difficult to understand what's going on without direct access.
Christian is always a pleasure talking to you.
You really simplify very, very complex issues around the world,
christian White and former State Department Senior Advisor.
Thank you for your time as always.