we know what could happen if the Thwaites glacier
in Antarctica does collapse within the next five years.
The ice sheet does have the potential to change
global coastlines if it breaks up due to rising ocean temperatures,
well, millions of people could be displaced in cities like Miami London and new york
would be at least partially underwater.
But is the term doomsday event 100% accurate here.
Joining me now is David Holland,
professor of mathematics and atmospheric science at N.
Y. U.
And a principal investigator for
the international Thwaites glacier collaboration.
Uh, Professor, it's so good to have you on the show. Thank you for joining.
So,
tell me about the risks here that this glacier does pose
if it does indeed collapse within the next five years.
Uh, thanks for having me, kristen um, the issue here is that if you,
what we've seen in the news is the part of the ice, the ice sheet depart in front,
the ice shelf shown a fracture.
So it's it's breaking and this may trigger a larger event
where the inland ice may in fact fall into the ocean
over the next decades to this century. So we may be seeing the beginning of some event
at the moment.
What are the chances, David that that happens that this does collapse?
Um, It's let's just say it's possible
we don't yet have the research in place to be able to definitively answer that.
Uh, if I could, you're familiar with the weather forecast,
which is a very well developed technology in which
we can say what the weather will be tomorrow.
We don't really have the equivalent for a glacier, such as weights.
So we really can't say with certainty what it is. All we're seeing is some
alarming or disturbing events happening at the moment.
And David, I do see that you're joining us from New Zealand
currently there.
As you yourself prepared to travel to this glacier,
talk to me about that journey that your team will
take and what will happen once you get there.
Yes, we're in beautiful new Zealand south of Christchurch,
as they say in New Zealand.
Welcome Key Aurora.
So we're on our, this icebreaker, the south korean ice breaker ship.
It's a joint program with south Korea, the United States and United Kingdom.
So we're supported well by our science foundations
from this ship.
Once we clear quarantine and we get some shipments
sent to us big delays with global shipping challenges.
We'll head south over the next week and our first challenge there will be the sea ice,
which is the ice in the ocean in front of the glacier.
This year, it looks like a very heavy sea ice year.
So we're challenged at first to even get to the antarctic
continent and once we get there we have another bunch of
get off our helicopters off this helo deck
and onto the glacier to set up our camp.
So how are you planning David to manage those
challenges in this huge endeavor that you're taking on.
Alright.
So uh as I always say,
um I have no expectations because expectations lead to disappointments?
Uh Field campaigns are very much by the moment we do
our best to planet No plan ever is actually implemented.
We do our very best the vagaries of weather
and other emergencies make it very challenging indeed.
But we've been successful enough to get there two years ago and now
we're going to a very exciting part of the glacier where it's really,
we believe melting like crazy due to warm ocean water.
Okay,
so let's talk about that because it's my
understanding that you are going to drill into
the ice shelf of this glacier will wait to see whether or not that ocean water
is beneath the surface of the glacier, if you find that,
what does that indicate about the melting process?
That's exactly right.
We'll drill about a half a mile to the glacier into the ocean that goes beneath it.
So the pacific ocean actually goes underneath
the antarctic ice sheet in this place.
We suspect the warm water is there.
But we're going to drill to confirm it and then
we're going to install the equivalent of a weather station,
but an ocean weather station underneath and monitored over the coming year,
water melts ice really, really fast compared to air.
And so this may be the fastest melting glacier on earth.
And if that's the case,
then we'll be able to see that and be able to
understand it and build the physics around it to forecast David,
When will you have these findings?
I know you're preparing to make the trip.
Do you anticipate that these findings
could come within weeks or potentially months
in terms of getting the warm water?
We certainly hope to be able to see that when we arrived
in february and then the understanding of the modeling will go forward over
the next year or two as that data is fed into models that ultimately
later or so we'll feed the policy.
We were talking earlier.
I was noting in the intro that if indeed this glacier does collapse.
Um, as I know you're set to study that we could see cities like Miami new york London
see some of their cities come under water.
Talk to me about that. What are the chances that that happens?
And is that a doomsday scenario?
I think David down hundreds of feet.
Yes, yes, yes. Keep talking. You froze your image froze for us, David.
Um, but I hope that you're still with us. Maybe we can sort that out.
I just want to know to what extent this is potentially a doomsday scenario
and what it does mean for cities like Miami like New york city like London
that could potentially
sea water levels rise if this does collapse.
Okay. Unfortunately, I think we lost David there.
He was joining us all the way from New Zealand which we appreciate.
But hopefully we can get David back
once he does complete this mission.
Of course,
we wish David and his crew a safe and successful mission as they make their own way
to the Thwaites Glacier.
That was David, Holland, professor at N. Y.
U,
and principal investigator for the
international Thwaites Glacier collaboration.