Welcome back to cheddar news is closing bell.
Everyone the opec oil cartel announcing today decided to
boost production in september by 100,000 barrels a day.
Well, it is a much slower pace than in previous months and does come at a time of steel,
high gas prices and unstable energy supplies
around the world as Russia continues to rage, its war in Ukraine.
But meanwhile here in the U. S.
Gas prices have fallen for seven straight weeks and
they're approaching an average of $4 a gallon nationwide.
Joining me now is Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at Gasbuddy Patrick.
It's always good to see you Can you give me more
good news on prices at the pump and where they're heading?
Well, certainly as you mentioned, seven straight weeks,
I think we could make it eight or nine oil prices now down another $3 a barrel today,
I'd have to look but I think this is the lowest intraday level since just ahead
of Russia's invasion of Ukraine or I should say just after the invasion of Ukraine.
So looking at some of the lowest oil prices and that will
continue to translate into gas stations that are lowering their prices.
You mentioned that opec the opec increase of 100,000 barrels a
day and just did some quick back of the envelope calculations
that's enough oil by the way to last about 7.5 minutes. So pretty insignificant.
But gas prices still likely to trend down 20
states where average prices are under $4 a gallon
now eight or nine weeks.
We could make it instead of seven weeks as we
get closer to and train the back to school season.
Patrick,
could we see an uptick in prices or do you
think that consumers can perhaps breathe a sigh of relief?
That we might continue to see
some of these lower prices at least destabilization going forward.
I'm a little bit worried headed back in the back
to school period and as we progress towards Labor Day,
we are entering the peak or prime of hurricane season.
Of course,
last year we saw hurricane ida shutting down
gulf of Mexico oil production for several weeks.
Also shutting down refineries,
inventories have improved slightly but we're still not to
the point where a hurricane will make no effect.
So hurricane is one of those things that could push prices up as we progress through
the month of august into september but barring
a hurricane or any other unexpected outage,
I do expect that prices will continue to moderate
toward the end of the year.
Is there an average price point this year, Patrick that we might be looking at?
I think a lot of americans just simply
there either living paycheck to paycheck or they're trying to plan ahead in budget.
What can you tell them?
Well,
I mean there's still a lot of headwinds that could or
fires that could flare back up and cause prices to reverse,
but I'm hopeful that by the end of the year, most of the U.
S. Borrowing the west coast will be under that $4 a gallon mark.
Some areas could be in the low three.
Some of those low priced areas,
even California could fall eventually back under the $5 a gallon
mark maybe into the mid four so expect additional improvement.
But again there's a lot going on
quickly now china and Taiwan especially not as big
of a role there as Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
But there's certainly a lot going on.
A very tight oil market remains and that's something that could
continue to impact prices And keep in mind to
Eu sanctions on Russian oil go into place towards the end of the year.
So there's still some things that could keep prices elevated.
But best guess by the end of the year,
solid threes for most areas California probably in the fours.
Uh we'll take it I think we've all been waiting for some good news.
Something to breathe a little bit of a sigh of
relief about Patrick and I know you crunched the numbers,
you know all about this so we always appreciate you coming on the show.
Do you think it was a disappointment that after the President's trip to Saudi
Arabia that we didn't see opec boost production even more at this latest meeting.
Yeah, certainly very interesting.
A lot of people have asked that is this a slap in the face of president biden.
I don't think it is.
I think the groundwork has been laid to improve the relationship with the Saudis.
On the same hand, they don't have much spare capacity anyway.
And they have highlighted the fact that unlike
2008 they don't want to run at 100% capacity
because that removes their ability to do something
if oil prices do see a super spike.
So I think the groundwork Slade, I'm not too surprised that Opec
or at least the Saudis haven't immediately responded
to the President simply because they really lack
the ability to bring on additional capacity quickly.
Alright Patrick DeHaan, a head of petroleum analysis at Gasbuddy Patrick.
We like when you come out, especially with good news. Thank you as always.