So joining us now to discuss is chad
Anderson managing partner over at space capital chad.
Good to have you as always. So how historic is this launch? Especially for Nasa.
Well, today's a big day.
This is the first time in 50 years that
a crew capable spacecraft has entered lunar orbit.
Um, it's the inaugural flight of the space launch system, the sls,
which is a massive government rocket.
Um,
and it's really coming online in a period where we're seeing
low cost solutions enter the market at the same time.
So we're seeing really the importance of a dual path where
the government sees a capability that it needs and commercial um,
solutions are coming online and able to offer at lower costs.
So like you said,
this kicks off the Nasa's Artemis program is a series of
missions to get humans back to the surface of the moon.
This is a 25 day unproved mission.
That's really a test to stress the vehicle and
buy down risk ahead of future crude missions.
So Artemis two
Um, potentially no earlier than 2020 for um, you know,
the success of this mission um, will really determine what happens next.
Artist has sort of had a really long slog to get to where it's at today.
I mean it's already years behind launching.
What were technically the issues that led to all of these delays here.
Well, I mean, um, it's been a couple of things but really it is,
there's a lot of criticism um, focused on,
on this rocket and probably for good reason.
I mean we're using really old technology.
Um we're using space shuttle era technology.
So these rocket engines for example, were in production in the sixties.
Heritage goes all the way back to the sixties and seventies.
Um they flew for the first time on shuttle missions in the eighties.
So this is, you know, very old technology.
Um there's criticism that this is based on, you know,
this is more of a jobs program for Nasa's workforce than anything else.
Um and uh you know, it costs a lot, so it's a very big expensive engine.
It's over time and over budget.
Like a lot of these government programs are,
and it's going to cost something like $4 billion dollars per launch.
Which makes, you know,
you really question the sustainability of a program like this.
But again, I mean,
I think it's really the importance here is the
focus on the fact that the government would buy
The lower cost solution if it exists. And they're starting to do that with SpaceX.
They've given them $3 billion dollars for a human landing
system and they just gave them another billion plus,
you know, over um over the evening.
And so um uh they would buy a low cost of They can,
but they want this capability regardless
chad out of NASA's 135 space shuttle missions,
only about 40% of them actually launched on time.
Is this just a typical thing that typically happens here. Why?
Why is sort of the low numbers here?
Yeah.
Well, I mean the chain,
the struggles that this SLS launch had um were very similar to space shuttle because
it used a lot of the same technology and so it uses liquid hydrogen fuel.
So the issues stem to the um, to the engine and the rocket design.
It's the um, it's a very small and so it leaks very easily.
It's very difficult to keep it contained.
And so that's what we saw with the previous delays were primarily due to that.
Most of the shuttle delays were due to that.
Um, uh, starship and other systems that are coming online um,
use a different type of fuel,
which will hopefully make them a little bit more reliable.
Um, so what happens next now that this is launched?
What happens sort of the next phase here?
So Artemis two will have people on board.
Um, you know,
what happens in in this test mission will really determine the timeline,
but they're saying no earlier than 2024.
So we're, you know, a year and a half fish away potentially.
But what's really interesting from our perspective as investors is that,
is that this is just one of several lunar missions that are
underway capstone is a small satellite that just entered the lunar orbit
last week I believe.
And they're testing um, the elliptical orbit around the moon,
which is where the gateway the lunar gateway is going to be, which is seen as,
you know,
Nasa's launch pad to the to the lunar surface and beyond SpaceX
for example will go from the gateway to the lunar surface,
delivering humans to the surface.
And we've also got commercial lunar payload
services which are robotic precursor missions to
these human missions that are gonna be launching um starting in Q1 next year,
a couple of our portfolio companies will be going to the moon next
year delivering rovers and payloads for now Nasa as well as commercial customers.
It also sort of makes you marvel chat at how we were able to put a man
on the Moon so many decades ago with the advancements of technology that we have now.
Why has it been so long since we've put a man back on the moon?
Well that's really comes down to the way in
which the government was contracting with these commercial companies.
So it's it,
the government wants a capability and the commercial market um is now
just becoming ready for for to to deliver on that now.
Um they, you know,
with cost plus contracts where they would pay the Nasa
would design the spacecraft and the rocket and they would
pay the defense contractors to build the system and they
would pay them whatever it cost plus some margin,
which means that they ultimately would make more money
if they went over budget and over time.
And so I think that this misalignment
of incentives really um worked against incentivizing innovation
and that's how you see we went from launching a satellite to orbit to a human
to orbit um to putting somebody on the moon and then regressing from there back to
low earth orbit and having a space station and then not even having a U.
S. Launch capability after shuttle was retired.
So this resurgence that we're seeing is really um driven in large part by SpaceX
and the efforts that they made a little over a decade ago to make launch,
low cost, bring transparency to the market and stimulate innovation that we've,
you know in a way that we've never seen in the space economy either way,
still a marvel to see it happen chad Anderson,
managing partner of Space Capital chat.
Thanks as always for joining us.