and welcome back everybody to politics, to baker machado new york.
Both new york and florida held their primaries this week and the elections in
those states look very different today than they did just a few months ago.
Both states experienced late changes to the congressional maps.
That could mean the big difference between
a democratic or Republican House of Representatives
come january.
So helping us break this all down in the big takeaways is alexander Salmon,
staff writer over at the american prospect.
Good to have you here alexander. So let's start with upstate new york.
I I have a house up in the Woodstock area and my
everywhere inundated with this big race. Pat Ryan Marc molinaro,
this is your Purple district that went from Obama
to trump to biden and Pat Ryan somehow,
at the end of the day, prevailing,
even though polls suggested that the republican marc molinaro would have won here,
how big of a deal is this, that democrats were able to pull this off?
Yeah,
it's not just that he won in a pretty
unfavorable electoral environment is that he was outspent 4-1.
The Republican was running against.
Uh, Molinaro was like an a plus recruit, like really one of the
the top political talent for republicans in this area
and for Pat Ryan to pull this out,
it is really substantial.
And I think it's, you know,
I've been very hesitant to say that this is different
political climate and the aftermath of the dobbs ruling.
You know, it's hard to draw conclusions.
There's so many things happening in american politics at once.
But this result is really shocking, I think, and, and for a candidate to be um,
to be out spent,
like Pat Ryan was 4 to 1 against a really top
shelf republican talent in a really
unfavorable environment just historically and,
and to win.
I think it really does indicate that this is a different political landscape today.
That was even a couple months ago and democrats have to be feeling good.
I mean, it's it's it's a surprise.
So how much of that do you think you mentioned the Dobbs case at the Supreme Court?
How much do you think of that?
Is that because, look, a year ago, maybe even january of this year?
All odds were basically saying that this was no doubt a slam dunk,
that Kevin McCarthy would be coming the next Speaker of the House
since the Dobbs, you know, decision,
we've seen a completely different change in polls as a result,
even in very Republican districts here.
So how much of this do you think is now a new motivated democratic voting base?
I think it's a big part of it.
I mean, I, you know, I can't tell you how much I would say the cautious side of me says,
well, you know, the Dobbs ruling also coincided with the highest gas prices.
We've seen at any point in a number of years, right?
And those gas prices trended steadily down since then. So you could say,
you know, this could be even just a gas price, this thing.
It could be so simple as that.
But I think the dogs does play a significant role and I think that um, you know,
since that decision, and since republicans have had to embrace, you know,
this incredibly stringent anti choice policy as part of their platform,
it's forced voters to to, you know, to decide it's made them more motivated.
And I think it has really helped democrats democrats distinguish themselves in,
you know, heading into a midterm election,
which is generally so unfavorable to the party of the president.
So um I think that it plays a serious role.
It's it's one of many things, but it's definitely important one.
Alright,
let's move now to Manhattan because this was also sort of interesting
because you had two longtime Democratic representatives going head to head,
you had Carolyn maloney who had never lost a congressional race versus
jerry Nadler Who also had never lost a congressional race ever before.
Because of now the New York Supreme Court
changing basically the the the very heavily gerrymandered districts
now to basically have these incumbents go up against each other.
You had Jerry Nadler getting all of the progressive vote.
You have aoc chuck schumer all these people coming out in the
campaign for him and he beat Carolyn Maloney by 30% points.
What was your take on this race?
Yeah, I thought that might be a closer race.
I was surprised by how Nadler dispatched bologna and
and Suraj Patel the third candidate in that race.
Um really interesting race.
I mean, to have two members who have both put in 30 years in congress, head to head.
It was very, very rare to see that happen. Uh and the race was really acrimonious.
I mean, it was it was nasty.
Uh the things that maloney said about Nadler,
you very rarely hear about amongst democrats talking about their colleagues.
So it was it was a fear
contested race.
It was one where, you know, these are two senior democrats,
both who have committee chair positions.
And uh and you know, Nadler,
I think rightfully uh ran on the fact that he's got
a has a has a pretty spotless progressive record in Congress.
And and over the course of 30 years, he's been really consistent.
He's helped grow the left within new york city and he ran on that uh you know,
the in the state and the city came to his aid.
And I think that made a big difference where maloney,
you know, was against the Iran deal supported the war in Iraq.
She has kind of played footsie with vaccines
causing autism in the pre covid vaccine era.
There were some stuff on a record that was
a little spotty and I think that they hammered
that and and Nadler got the support of high
profile progressives and that made a big difference.
Let's move down south now and let's talk about florida, I think, you know,
it was obviously, you know, Ron Santo was going to win the Republican nomination,
but it was maybe sort of a question mark between Nikki for Reed,
who is obviously using abortion as one of
the center issues on her campaign versus somebody like
charlie chris who has had a very interesting
political life over the course of his career,
Chris ends up prevailing here.
And it's interesting charlie chris's strategy essentially says he
wants to be the big hug in in florida.
He essentially wants to be the kinder, nicer,
wanting to have joe biden coming campaign for him.
So how do you sort of see this race shaking out between chris and de Santis,
even though Ron DeSantis has over $100 million in the bank here?
Yeah, I'm not so optimistic about this one.
I I think that, uh, you know, I think florida politics as,
as we've seen in recent years.
I mean,
the embrace of Ron Sanchez's popularity would show you that this
is a voter base doesn't really want a big embrace.
This is a voter base is not motivated by bipartisan committee.
And I, you know, I understand democrats are trying to compete in florida,
it's gotten harder and harder and harder to do that over
the last Handful of years and they're looking for an answer,
I mean, 2018, we saw Democrats almost pull off that governor's race
and you know, nearly miss and and nearly missed on the Senate seat?
It looks much more difficult now.
I mean,
it's just hard to say that it hasn't gotten much more unfavorable for
Democrats and and Chris I think we'll probably get a lot of attention.
I think Democrats are hopeful that they can compete because
the centers is so controversial in a lot of ways.
I don't know, I, you know, I would love to be proven wrong here,
but I think that it's really uphill sledding for,
for democrats and and chris obviously is it
fits the profile of a certain Democratic politician,
former Republican, as you mentioned,
the sort of guy who you think they hope they hope will split the difference uh,
and kind of bring people in the middle.
And I think our politics has shown us recently that there aren't
that many people in the middle and uh in in recent years,
and it's gonna be really hard to stitch
together a winning campaign doing things like that.
Yeah.
And really quickly,
also charlie chris's rig embrace of joe biden and and basically even
saying he wants joe biden to come out and campaign for him,
given joe biden sagging poll numbers usually if you are
a democrat or any party that is running against,
you know,
basically the that year you're running as far away from the person in power,
as much as humanly possible.
What do you sort of, what's your take on him embracing biden here?
Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. It's right.
The biden's poll numbers are obviously super low rock bottom,
but they've also trended up a little bit lately I think now
that democrats are actually doing things in the eyes of democratic voters,
you know, passing legislation, uh you know, doing a student loan,
debt executive action.
Um I think, you know, probably his his favorables are trending up.
I mean, I, you know, I don't know, my instinct would be to agree with you that,
you know, if you have any shot, you got to run away from biden.
Um and you know, probably you run away from biden to the left, not to the right, but
again, you know, it's it's florida, democrats have really struggled there,
The party is a little bit rudderless there and, and you know,
I think that they're hoping something sticks and um you know,
I wouldn't hold my breath for that.
I think democrats probably have a better chance of succeeding in in other,
other parts of the country that are, that are,
you know, a little purple er but but florida, you know,
if florida goes for democrats were talking about a much
different political environment than even I would have expected,
I think you're so smart,
I think florida has sort of been this elusive state since 2000 for
democrats that they've kind of always sort of wanted to go back after,
but never been able to get alexander.
Sam and staff writer at the american prospect.
Good to have you here, alexander thanks so much for joining us.
And after the break, everyone,
president biden announcing his plan to address student loan debt.
We're giving you all the details next. Don't go anywhere.