Joining me now on set is Jay Woods,
chief global strategist at Freedom at Capital Markets.
Hi, Jay. Thanks for joining me. It's great to be here on the set. I walk by every day.
So it's nice to finally sit down. I know you've been here for a while at the
S C. What do you make of a day like today in the market?
Yeah,
today was interesting and that 4200 level in the S and P 500 is all we are focused on.
That's all we're talking about right now.
The debt ceiling in principle has been resolved.
We trust, but we want to verify, we want to see a vote come through tomorrow,
pass on that first vote.
And then we can probably take a little bit of a leg higher.
A little relief rally from, you know, the team down here.
That's just waiting for that good news to be behind us.
And then we'll focus on the Fed after that.
But right now that 4200 line right in the sand, we're just hanging to it
right. So the X date right, as they've been calling it in Washington. June 5th.
So technically Monday, right,
that they had to really hash out a deal entirely to avoid a default.
The fact that we still have a few days left and some work to do
is do you think that's why stocks kind of deteriorated a bit into the close,
without a doubt, it was supposed to be June 1st.
Now it's June 5th.
That gives them a little wiggle room, a little more negotiating room.
That's kind of scary.
One sector I'm watching in the negotiations is the defense sector. The,
the E F I
is right at its 200 day moving average
at a
very crucial inflection point. Watch the stocks like Raytheon
Northman
because those are ones that may be used as a negotiating
tool when they say let's cut spending but not here.
So it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. OK.
So of course, as our viewers see on the screen, they
nada
continuing to hold up.
It looks like actually when it's all said and done closing up 3/10
of a percent today. And the, and P barely eking out a one point game.
So is this hype around NVIDIA semiconductors? And A I,
you think here to stay, I think it is here to stay.
I think it's going to be selective as to which ones continue to be the winners.
But right now there's euphoria there and you're seeing the tide lift,
all the boats in that space,
you have that A I attached to your name or that product in the wings.
And investors are going to go there trying to make that quick dollar.
But NVIDIA, what they did at earnings is something I've never seen.
That guy was epic. And then Marvell followed it up.
So we're watching Broadcom, uh, later on in the week to see what they do.
But yeah, right now it's, there should be Pullbacks.
They got a little too far ahead of their skis,
but I don't think the momentum is going to stop any time soon.
Do you think trading or investing in this market is still a stock by stock basis
without really kind of knowing for sure. Right.
What the fed is going to do at this mid June meeting?
Yeah, sadly it is because when we talk about the market, the bread has been horrible.
There are 10 stocks leading this market higher.
The charge has been led by stocks that made new highs. Today. Apple made a new high.
We're not talking about Apple making a 52 week high. That's pretty impressive.
You meta that comeback has been something fierce. And then of course, the video
just wow.
So the leaders continue to lead what we need are the rest of the stocks,
the rest of the sectors that have been beaten down that
made 52 weeks lows like three in the industrial side.
Bristol Myers in the health care.
Side, they're not jumping on board, they're not following the generals.
So hopefully
the tide turns, we get through this debt ceiling, through the fed.
And then you see some of the smaller caps,
some of the sectors that have been beaten down, start to follow the leaders.
Any concern about what's happening in the jobs market, layoffs are rising.
We've seen that obviously, throughout the year,
we'll have a lot of jobs data on top of these next few days and
we've seen it right.
The stock market can go higher even if the jobs market
isn't necessarily keeping pace with the gains that it did once.
See. Yes. And the jobs market is still at 50 year lows. The unemployment is at 3.4%.
We're expecting that number again on Friday when the report as sad as it sounds,
some people in this industry want to see
that number cool off and the unemployment number
tick up a little bit because all the other numbers haven't really cooled off as,
as the fed would like them to see, especially the PC, the CPI number.
So the unemployment number, if it
jobs continue to improve, that's a great thing.
No one is going to be upset about that.
But the market would like to see some cooling on that front
as well as some cooling and some inflationary numbers as well.
So it's interesting that actually I think a lot of
people were pricing in perhaps a pause by the fed or
at least a lot of market guests on my show before some of the data that we got last week.
And then that did seem to change in the wake of the latest inflationary read.
What's your pulse as to whether or not the fed does pause or raise come June 14th.
That is a great question. My poll is we still pause.
Jay Powell has been very transparent when it comes to raising the rates.
But he said he was data dependent and he wanted to look at the data.
Well, wait a second. Now, the data is saying another quarter,
a quarter point hike is in the cards. So this is a coin
to us down here.
But I think they're going to pause,
see how things digest and then possibly a quarter point down the road in July.
But right now, hopefully a pause,
but the market isn't really scared at that quarter
point hike either as we are still about 4200
P. Yeah. Very good point.
Of course,
all of this gets priced into the market often times before it actually happens.
So
Jay Woods Chief, global strategist at freedom capital markets, Jay, thank you.
Thank you.