A record number of tornadoes tore through the United States in March,
devastating towns and communities
atop the record set in 2021 and shows a
trend of severe weather happening earlier in the year.
Historically. The peak of tornado season is from April to June
joining me now is Harold brooks,
senior research scientist in the forecast research and development division of
Noah and Oh, a Harold, can you break down the numbers for us?
How many tornadoes were observed last month?
And how is it different from typical years?
Well, we don't really even have the full reports yet for the month.
It'll take us a few months before we get the final numbers.
Uh And what we, what we, what we did have seen is that, yes,
March appears to have set a record for the most number of tornadoes in any March.
One of the things we've actually seen is the,
is the biggest effect over the last 20 years
has been in an increase in the variability of tornado
occurrence because also in the last decade we've set the
record for the fewest number of tornadoes in a,
in a month of March.
That was back in 2015. And, and if we actually look
In the last 20 years,
most of the records that we have set for either the most
or the fewest number of tornadoes have all occurred in the,
in this last 20-year period.
So what does it tell us about whether patterns in the us.
I think the biggest message we see is that
this is a sign of increasing variability for severe weather
and that's consistent
with what we see for rainfall also
that we're seeing without a real large change in the total amount of rain,
what we're seeing has been an increase in the frequency of really
heavy rain rants around the country and that's just variability increasing.
So what can you tell us about the intensity of the tornadoes?
Are the zF one, Z F to e F five's, What are they like?
Well,
what we're actually seeing is is a consistently
roughly 10% of tornadoes in the United States
or at least ef two intensity and about 1% each year are are Ef four.
And and that hasn't changed over the last
50 or 60 years, uh that we didn't basically, what happens is if a tornado occurs,
your probability of it being
A strong tornado F two are stronger
is about the same as it's always been.
So is climate change to blame? Are we just getting better at detecting tornadoes?
I think for certain for some things,
we can tell that it's not just that we're getting better or we're being stricter,
which is another option of reporting tornadoes that that things have changed now,
how we relate that to the planet warming up has been, is really, really difficult
for some aspects of whether
such as, you know, high temperatures,
it's pretty directly related to the planet warming.
But for tornadoes were looking at a,
at a really long chain that we have to make all the links work
and we just don't have all the, all the links made yet.
It's likely that it's related to the planet warming up.
But we we really can't conclusively say that yet.
Now, if so we're severe weather season is shifting.
What does this mean for the rest of this the year?
Well, I not really just because of a shift this year is appears for the next six weeks.
Like it's going to be uh a relatively active april
uh and perhaps into early May compared to normal years.
Our ability to to forecast say the next couple of months of
tornado activity is a lot better when we're looking at at winter.
So we can, we're pretty,
we're pretty good about forecasting that the winter will be
above normal or below normal this time of year.
Just because of the, as we ramp up into the normal tornado season,
it's a lot harder for us to be able to make that
kind of prediction because it depends on a lot of things that,
that
don't last very long in the atmosphere.
So is extreme weather kind of our new normal.
Well, I'm not sure if I'd say it's our that the,
that the normal has changed particularly for tornadoes.
We, we have seen us a little bit of an increase of tornadoes in the,
in the mid south of the United States, uh sort of Memphis and surrounding area.
And that's particularly important to us on a societal
level because there are higher population densities in the
in that part of the country than they are saying. The planes of the US
more of the tornadoes occur after dark,
there's higher levels of poverty and manufactured housing living there.
So the same tornado occurring in the mid south of the U. S.
Is likely to cause more problems than one occurring in the plains.
So how concerned are you about the shifting patterns and what
can people do to best prepare for these these shifts?
I think if you live between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachians,
you have a chance of having tornadoes occur near you.
And the biggest thing people can do is to have a plan for what to do.
If a if a tornado warning is issued for them,
you want to get to the lowest floor of the
interior room of the house with no windows around you.
Uh you need to get out of mobile homes
uh and you need to,
and as it really important is you need to know
that on the days when tornadoes are a possible threat,
you need to be in a position where you can receive information from local media,
the National Weather Service.
So, you know, now is the time I need to put my plan into action.
All right, Harold brooks,
senior research scientist in the forecast research and
development division at Noah and no double A
sir, thank you so much for being with us.