Welcome back to Cheddars.
News wrap the most significant European conflict in almost 80 years
has begun after Russia launched a major invasion into Ukraine today.
The attacks began shortly before dawn after
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared declared war.
In a televised address
in capital Kiev. Ukrainians woke up to the sound of explosions and gunfire
as Russia launched a massive assault by both land and by sea.
President Biden responded with new measures taken against Russia. Take a listen
today, I'm authorizing additional strong sanctions
and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia.
This is going to impose severe costs on the Russian economy,
both immediately and over time.
We have purposefully designed these sanctions to maximize
the long term impact on Russia
and to minimize the impact on the United States and our allies.
Joining me now to discuss is David salvo,
deputy director of the alliance for securing
democracy and a former State Department official.
David, thank you so much for coming on as we try to make sense of what's happening,
the build up of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border as you well know,
has been going on for months now, during that time, the West has tried
to have multiple discussions with Russian
officials that typically ended in deadlock.
Do you think we failed. Ukraine by allowing Russia to put all the pieces together
for war.
It's a really tricky situation because unfortunately Ukraine is not a NATO ally.
So we're in a very delicate dance between wanting to
protect Ukrainian sovereignty and understanding of the reality that we
are not treaty bound to come to its defense militarily
Russia unfortunately knows this and therefore it has escalated.
I think beyond the point at which we're willing to, to match their activity.
One question I'm hearing a lot is for many americans,
they just don't know why Putin is so obsessed with Ukraine.
What is the history here between the two countries?
Well, a lot of,
a lot of Russian people see Kiev as sort of the birth of the
Russian nation was the first major Slavic state way back in the 10th century,
I believe.
And the two countries have always, in a lot of respects, been historically,
politically culturally intertwined.
There's of course the whole western side of Ukraine
that was not necessarily part of the Russian empire.
Historically, it was part of Central europe is boring empire.
But by and large, if you ask the ordinary Russian, you know,
as Ukraine's or Ukraine Russia sort of the same thing.
A lot of them would respond yes, they are.
So, you know, Ukraine has really seen as as integral to
Russia's identity in so many respects with that said,
what is Putin's justification for attacking Ukraine?
Well, there really is no justification.
I think it's built on a very flimsy premise,
which is that he wants to keep Ukraine permanently out of NATO.
What I'm sure he understands that his invasion of Ukraine
in 2014 probably ended the discussion of Ukraine joining NATO,
even if publicly we won't admit that, that's just the reality.
And I'm sure the President Putin understands that,
but I think he's trying to increase the ante here.
He's trying to exact more leverage on the West by taking more Ukrainian territory,
possibly bringing down the Ukrainian government and
using that as leverage to try to get
third security demands from the West. But I don't think he's likely to succeed.
I want to talk about Putin's tactics here.
We know he's attacking Ukraine from three different fronts.
What do you make of his offensives of the strategy?
Well,
it means business.
It's it's altogether dissimilar from the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008?
Where um they had, they had the country surrounded on more than one.
They came in from more than one side
And came within 30 miles of the capital city.
I think we're seeing a similar playbook here in Ukraine this time around.
And the idea is really to sort of bend
the will of both the government and the population.
Again,
I don't think he's going to be successful and I think
they're going to be significant costs on on both sides here.
But that's what he's hoping to accomplish. When we talk about significant costs.
Can you explain to me, David,
how does Ukraine's armed forces shape up against Russia.
I mean, there's no match really,
but the Ukrainian military is significantly stronger than it was in 2014
with Russia first invaded and that's partly due to the fact that,
you know, the United States and the West have provided security assistance,
defensive security assistance to the Ukrainian military since then.
And I think the Ukrainian military is going
to inflict real damage on the Russian military.
This isn't going to be
sort of a walk in the park where Russia has no casualties.
And then President Putin is going to have to justify to his
own population why there are Russian soldiers coming back in body bags.
I don't mean to be that glib about it, but that's the reality and it's a sad reality.
No, I think you're right. I think that is the reality.
A very sad reality that we might be looking at.
A lot of countries spoke out against the invasion. We've been seeing that all day.
Even those who are friendly with Putin like Hungary, for example, china.
However, David, as you know, kind of gave a muted response. Why do you think that is?
And what is their relationship with Russia?
Well, china and Russia have been cozying up to one another um for, you know,
quite some time now and I think there's maybe a little bit of a quid pro quo where china
turns a blind eye to Russian actions in Ukraine and
Russia is supportive of Chinese territorial claims over Taiwan.
There's also increasing economic ties between the two.
But there is a sort of historical mutual
suspicion on both sides of this relationship.
So I think this is probably a tactical alliance and not necessary,
thoroughly indicative of some,
you know, long term romance between the two.
I think it's really just a tactical play here
have less than a minute.
But do you think there's a point when NATO and the US has to get involved militarily?
When will that be? Do you think it could happen?
I don't see it happening.
And I really think that's because President Putin has made quite
clear he's willing to use the thousands of tactical nuclear weapons.
Russia has pointed at europe to defend its strategic interests in Ukraine.
And I just don't see the West having appetite for escalating
to that degree because I think they take him seriously.
Unfortunately,
David salvo,
deputy Director of the Alliance for securing
democracy and former State Department official,
thank you so much for coming on, David.
We hope you come back as we know, we'll be discussing this story a lot.
We appreciate your time