THE MAJOR INDEXES AGAIN
THAT WAS A STRONG UPDATE
YESTERDAY FOLLOWED BY A PRETTY
DECENT DOWN DAY TODAY ENDING
NEAR SESSION LOWS ON THE MAJOR
INDEXES AND FOR MORE ON THE
MARKETS AND JOINED NOW BY BOB
IACCINO CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST
AT PATH,
TRADING PARTNERS. A BAD IT'S
GOOD TO SEE THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WHAT LOOKED LIKE A ROTATION
BACK INTO SOME OF THESE AT TECH
HEAVY STACKS LIKE BIG
TECHNOLOGY LIKE THE STAY AT
HOME NAMES HAS CERTAINLY THAT
TREND REVERSING HERE TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY WHAT DO YOU MAKE
OF TODAY'S SESSION.
>> BUT HEY KRISTEN GOOD TO SEE
YOU AGAIN I THINK THAT TODAY IS
VERY MUCH BAD NEWS FOR THE
OVERALL MARKET WHAT WE'VE BEEN
SEEING LATELY IS LATE MONTH
WEAKNESS WE SAW IN JANUARY
WE SAW FEBRUARY IS A LITTLE
EARLY TO CALL IT THAT MARCH,
BUT
IT'S HALF AND AGAIN AND AGAIN
IT FEELS LIKE TO BUY AND HOLD
CROWD IS STARTING TO NOT WANT
TO HOLD
THAT MUCH AND I THINK THAT'S
QUITE A BIT TO DO WITH WHAT
WE'RE SEEING SPECIFICALLY IN
GERMANY. BUT THE RESURGENCE OF
THE COVID-19 CASES EVEN WHEN
YOU'VE SEEN. CHECK GO UP AND
THE OTHER 3 MAJORS GO DOWN HERE
IN THE U.S. THAT'S NOT
NECESSARILY
GOOD SIGN. I ALONG WITH MANY
OTHERS BEEN PREACHING THAT THE
REOPENING TRADE THE
REFLATION TRADE HAS TO TAKE
HOLD HAS TO LEAD FOR IT TO BE A
SOMEWHAT HEALTHY SORT OF A
RESURRECTION FROM
THE PANDEMIC AND A 3RD WAVE
THAT WE'RE SEEING IN EUROPE
SOME OF THE RISING CASES THAT
WE'RE SEEING HERE THE IN THE
U.S. IS VERY TROUBLING I
BELIEVE TO THE MARKET AND I
THINK THAT'S PART OF IT ALSO
THE OLD STORY I DON'T THINK
THAT'S ANYWHERE
NEAR OVER A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE
SAYING THAT THE SHORT TERM HIGH
FOR THE 10 YEARS THAT ONE 76 IN
CHANGE THAT WE GOT I DON'T BUY
THAT AT ALL I THINK THE 10 YEAR
NOTE AND GO TO 50 BEFORE
ANYBODY KNOWS IT.
>> INTERESTING BUT I THINK ALSO
INTERESTING TO
YOUR POINT. BOB OF COURSE WE
EXPECT A 10 YEAR YIELDS RISE AS
THE ECONOMY IMPROVES AND THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT ONCE WE CAN
GET AND THE REOPEN UNDER WAY
THAT THAT WILL HAPPEN
BUT THAT YOUR JUST ONE 0.6 2%
TODAY. SO CERTAINLY WELL OFF
ITS HIGHS ABOVE THAT 1.7%
THRESHOLD THAT WE RECENTLY SAW
I WAS ALSO READING UH TAXES AT
BIDEN'S TAX POWER SEE THAT WE
DID HEAR COME BACK INTO THE
FOREFRONT JUST LAST WEEK A BIT
OF A CONCERN
FOR INVESTORS. HOW CLOSELY ARE
YOU WATCHING TAXES AND DO YOU
THINK AT SOME POINT THAT COULD
DERAIL THE STOCK MARKET RUN
THAT WE'VE SEEN OF LATE THOUGH
IT HAS BEEN OBVIOUSLY VOLATILE
IN THE PAST MONTH.
>> WELL IT COULD BE THE
CONVERSATIONS NEED TO GET MORE
SERIOUS FOR ME TO START TO TAKE
THAT INTO ACCOUNT TERMS OF THE
THINGS THAT WE BUY A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF THAT WE'RE GOING TO
BE $2000 CHECKS AROUND ELECTION
TIME. THEY ENDED UP IN ABOUT
1400 I DON'T BELIEVE THAT
ANYWHERE NEAR THAT TAX PLAN
THAT'S BEEN PUT OUT SO FAR
WOULD BE THE
ONE THAT COME OUT RIGHT,
ESPECIALLY CALL CALL IT AND CA.
I JUST KNOW VERGE MACRO
ECONOMIC PLAN. IT'S NOT
SPECIFICALLY ATTACHED TAX PLAN.
YOU CAN'T REALLY HAVE IT
BOTH WAYS. I HAVE THE ECONOMY
IS WEAK AND PEOPLE NEED TO
STIMULUS OR ECONOMY IS STRONG
AND IT CAN TAKE A BIG
TAX CUT. ONE
SAC TAX HIKE ONE OF THE LARGEST
ONES WE'VE SEEN IN QUITE SOME
TIME GRANTED IT'S SHIFTED
TOWARD THE WEALTHY YOUR
SIDE OF OF THE ECONOMY WHICH IS
A GOOD THING THEY CAN CERTAINLY
AFFORD IT. BUT I
THINK AT A TIME LIKE THIS YOU
DON'T NEED ANY SORT OF TAX
HIKES, ESPECIALLY IF YOUR CAR
COMFORTABLE RELEASING FIRST THE
900 BILLION
UNDER THE LAST ADMINISTRATION
THAN THE 1.200 THIS
ADMINISTRATION WITHOUT ANY SORT
OF TAX HIKES TO
PAY IT. NOW THEY ARE
INTRODUCING AN ECONOMIC PLAN
YOU'RE SAYING THIS PARTICULAR
THING WE NEED TO
PAY FOR IT'S INCONSISTENT.
I THINK IT WOULD BE VERY
CONCERNING TO THE INVESTMENT
COMMUNITY AND I THINK IT WOULD
TAKE A HIT ON STOCKS. WHAT'S IT
BECAME A MORE SERIOUS
CONVERSATION.
>> TALK MORE ABOUT WHERE
OPPORTUNITIES EXIST IT SOUNDS
LIKE YOU
ARE WORRIED THAT THAT THE BUY
AND HOLD INVESTORS ARE ACTUALLY
SELLING THIS MONTH, BUT THEY'RE
A LITTLE BIT APPREHENSIVE
UPHOLDING OF COURSE AS WE DO
SEE THESE LOCKDOWNS ARE GOING
TO PLACE YOU MENTIONED MOST OF
FRANCE NOW IN A LOCKDOWN AT
LEAST UNTIL MID APRIL AS WELL
DO YOU SEE ANY OPPORTUNITIES IN
THIS MARKET.
>> WELL, I SUSPECT YOU'LL GET A
LITTLE BIT OF A BIT AND THINGS
LIKE ZOOM AGAIN BECAUSE I DON'T
THINK IT'S GOING TO END WITH
EUROPE. I THINK YOU'LL AT LEAST
SEE SLOWING OF THE
REOPENINGS HERE IN CERTAIN
PARTS OF THE U.S. I MOVED FROM
CHICAGO DOWN TO FLORIDA THAT
HASN'T HAPPENED HERE
AND IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'S
HAPPENING HERE, BUT YOU ARE
GETTING MORE AND MORE CALM.
WE'RE SAY SHUNS WHETHER IT'S IN
MY HOUSEHOLD.
MOST A FRIEND GROUP OR LARGER
CONVERSATIONS TO MAYBE GO OUT A
LITTLE BIT LESS JUST ASKED
THESE THESE CASES START TO
SPIKE AROUND THE REST OF THE
COUNTRY I THINK IT'S NAIVE TO
THINK THAT IT WON'T LEAD TO
SOME OF THE OTHER STATES THAT
CURRENTLY HAVE
DECLINING CASES. SO I THINK
YOU'LL START TO SEE SOME OF
THOSE LOCKED DOWN STOCKS CATCH
A BIG GUNS AND WOULD BE THE
ONE. I'D BE LOOKING AT THE
CLOSEST I'M PROBABLY GETTING
OUT OF SOME OF THE GAINS THAT
WE PERSONALLY HAVEN'T THINGS
LIKE UBER LIVE NATION AND SOME
OF THOSE COULD KIND OF LOSE
SOME OF THOSE GAMES SO SHIFTING
BACK INTO SOME OF THOSE
LOCKDOWN SOCKS, IT MIGHT BE A
VERY SHORT SHIFT IN TERMS OF
TIMEFRAME WE SHOULD GET BETTER
NUMBERS IN THE SUMMER
IF IT HOLDS TRUE, SO WHAT
HAPPENED LAST YEAR DURING THE
SUMMER WE GOT A SLIGHT TAILING
OFF BUT IT'S CONCERNING FOR
SURE FOR THE
INVESTMENT COMMUNITY.
>> AS SPEAKING OF ZOOM THAT
STOCK UP MORE THAN 3% TODAY,
BUT STILL ABOUT
200 CALLERS, SHY OF ITS
ALL-TIME HIGH AT THE HEIGHT OF
THE PANDEMIC WE SAW THAT HIT
JUST SEVERAL MONTHS AGO.
SO WHEN IT
COMES TO WHAT WE MAKE OF REOPEN
TRADES OF COURSE WHAT WE MAKE
OF THE CONCERN ABOUT THE
VACCINE ROLLOUT THAT THERE
STILL IS NOT ENOUGH VACCINE.
SUPPLY. I GUESS IN NEAR TERM
BOB IS THERE ANYTHING ELSE ON
YOUR RADAR THAT COULD BE A
POTENTIAL DERAILMENT TO THIS
MARK AND DO YOU THINK THAT A
10% FALL BACK COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH MORE LOCKDOWNS IN PLACE.
>> WELL WE ARE HEADED IN THE
KRISTEN WE HAD 10.9 3% ON THAT
PULL BACK TO WE JUST
RECENTLY EXPERIENCED SO
WOULDN'T BOTHER ME TOO MUCH TO
SEE IT IN THE OTHER 3 INDICES
ARE THINKING BRUSSELS WELL ON
ITS WAY THE VOLATILITY IN THE
RUSSELL IS EXTREMELY
HIGH LEVELS. AND IN CLIMBING
FROM THERE SO IT WOULDN'T
CONCERN ME AS MUCH AS MATTER OF
FACT IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE BIT
OF A RELIEF
TO SEE ALL THE OTHER 3 INDEXES
HIT THAT SORT OF DOWN 8 TO 10%
CORRECTION AND STABILIZE THEIR
LAST TIME I TALKED TO YOU,
YOU KNOW YOU SAID IT'S NOT
WORRY IF YOU LIKE EVERY TIME I
TALK TO US NOW WORRIED LAST
TIME I TALKED TO WERE ABOUT 20%
INVESTED RIGHT NOW ABOUT 40
BECAUSE WE CONTINUE TO GET
SIGNALS FROM OUR PARTICULAR
PROCESS THAT THERE'S MORE
UPSIDE CALMING POTENTIALLY
BECAUSE OF THE STIMULUS CHECKS
POTENTIALLY BECAUSE OF
THE REOPENING BUT THERE'S THIS
CONSTRUCTIVE FACTOR OF HOW MANY
BUSINESSES ARE CLOSED. SO WE
DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT NUMBER IS
IN SEPTEMBER LAST YEAR YELP
RELEASED THEIR ECONOMIC HIM
PACK SURVEY TALKING ABOUT 60%
OF THE BUSINESSES
THAT WE'RE CURRENTLY CLOSED DUE
TO THE PANDEMIC WE'RE GOING TO
REMAIN CLOSED. IF THAT NUMBER
IS REAL THEN SHORT-TERM
INFLATION IS UNLIKELY TO PULL
BACK UNTIL SOME OR ALL OF THOSE
COMPANIES GOING TO BE REPLACED
OR REOPEN. HE GIVES THE EXAMPLE
OF GOING TO DINNER IS GOING ON
TRIPS GOING TO CONCERTS YOU CAN
ONLY DO ONE OF THOSE AT
A TIME. NOW WE'RE EXPERIENCES
LONG WAIT TIMES AT THE OPEN
RESTAURANTS TO WHERE PEOPLE ARE
RACING ONCE THEY SEE A TABLE
OPEN. THEY'RE ALREADY ASKING
FOR CREDIT CARDS FOR
RESERVATIONS, OVERALL INFLATION
ARIE KINDS OF THINGS GRANTED
MAYBE 4. A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
SOCIOECONOMIC SECTOR BUT YOU'LL
SEE IT IN OTHER PLACES AS WELL
WE'LL SEE IT ALL THROUGH THE
CURVE. THE GOOD THING ON SCENE
IS COMMODITY PRICES FALLING
THAT'S FALLING BECAUSE
OF THAT OF LEICESTER MAN SAVED
FOR LUMBER TODAY BUT LOOK AT
COPPER THE LAST FEW DAYS CRUEL
DOWN 6 OF THE LAST 8 SESSIONS 2
OF THOSE SESSIONS MORE THAN 6%.
WE HAVEN'T HAD 2 OUT OF 8
SESSIONS BE DOWN THAT LARGE
GOING ALL THE WAY NOT APRIL
TWENTY-TWENTY THAT'S THE LAST
TIME THAT HAPPENED SO THAT'S
GOING A LITTLE BIT OF A BREAK
ON THIS INFLATION TRADE AND
PROBABLY MAKE ME WRONG. MY
TENURE,
NO PREDICTION.
>> LET'S TALK GAME STAB HAS SET
TO REPORT EARNINGS AFTER THE
CLOSE ACTUALLY EXPECTED BOB TO
SEE UP PROFIT ON AN EARNINGS
PER SHARE BASIS OF A DOLLAR AND
$0.35 AT A LONG-TERM STILL
CONCERNS COLLECTIVELY FOR THIS
HAPPENING
ABOUT PROFITABILITY ENDED THE
DAY DOWN ABOUT 7% MOVING UP
ANOTHER ONE AND A HALF PERCENT
LOWER AFTER HOURS IS GAMESTOP A
COMPANY THAT YOU'RE INTERESTED
IN BUYING.
>> SIMPLY BECAUSE THE
VOLATILITY I CAN'T
PLACE IT AND SO WHEN WE SEE
MOTILITY LIKE THAT WERE STOCK
STILL UP TRIPLE AND JUST THIS
YEAR EVEN THOUGH IT FELL OFF
FROM
ITS HIGHS. I CAN'T MODEL OUT
THAT VOLATILITY SO WE DON'T GET
INVOLVED IN IT, BUT THE
GAMESTOP IS WORTH 300 OR
$16. I THINK DEPENDS AS MUCH ON
THE GUIDANCE IN GAMESTOP AS IT
DOES ON THE EARNINGS FOR THIS
PARTICULAR CORNER. I DON'T
THINK THIS PARTICULAR COURT
MATTERS AS MUCH BECAUSE THEY
ALREADY RELEASED THEIR HOLIDAY
SALES. SO WE KNOW WHAT THAT IS
YOU EXPECTED
THAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE LARGER
SPIKE SO I'M NOT TERRIBLY
CONCERNED WITH THIS EARNINGS
REPORT I WOULD LIKE TO LISTEN
TO THE CALL THOUGH AND SEE IF
THEY'RE TRYING TO JUSTIFY
THAT VALUATION OR THEY'RE
SAYING THAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO
SOMETHING WITH THIS NEW
VALUATION TO TURN TO A DIGITAL
COMPANY WHICH I THINK IS WHAT A
LOT OF THE BELIEVERS ARE
LOOKING FOR AND THAT MIGHT
ACTUALLY MAKE ME INTEREST IN
THE STOCK. BUT I'D RATHER BUY
THE STOCK AT 300
LOW VOLATILITY THAN BIDEN $20
THINKING IT'S GOING GO
300.
>> ABOUT LET'S TAKE A LOOK BACK
HERE TODAY IS THE ONE YEAR
ANNIVERSARY
THAT THIS STOCK MARKET BOTTOMED
ON MARCH 23RD OF LAST YEAR WHEN
WE DID GET THE UNPRECEDENTED
STIMULUS ANNOUNCEMENT FROM BOTH
THE FEDERAL RESERVE AND FISCAL
STIMULUS OUT
OF CONGRESS. ONE YEAR LATER
WHAT WE LEARNED ABOUT THE STOCK
MARKET.
>> BUT THE STOCK MARKET CAN BE
VERY DETACH FROM
THE AIR ECONOMY, MAYBE THAT'S
NOT SOMETHING WE LEARN MAYBE
THAT'S SOMETHING
WE KNOW AND IT'S JUST KIND OF
LIKE RETAKING YOUR DRIVER'S
TEST AFTER 10 YEARS. AND
LEARNING THE RULES OF THE ROAD
AGAIN. IT'S ONE OF THOSE THINGS
WHERE WHEN YOU LOOK
AT WHERE WE ARE WE HAD A 33%
DROP IN GDP. NOW THOSE
PREDICTIONS OF 68% HIGHER,
BUT FROM A LOWER BASE PEOPLE
FORGET THAT THE GDP FIGURES WE
GET JUST A PERCENTAGE OFF OF
THE LAST LOCAL. WE'RE STILL
ABOUT 4 THE TRILLION I BELIEVE
BELOW
OR PRINT BECAUSE WHEN WE GET
BACK TO FULL JANET YELLEN HAS
BEEN
TALKING ABOUT THAT'S NOT MORE
PEOPLE EMPLOYED THAT PRE
PANDEMIC THAT'S FULL EMPLOYMENT
VERSUS PEOPLE IN THE
LABOR FORCE SO TO HAVE ALL THE
NEW ALL-TIME HIGHS IN
THE STOCK RIGHT SEEMS A LITTLE
SILLY TO
ME UNLESS I'M RIGHT ABOUT MORE
MONEY CHASING FEWER GOODS,
FEWER COMPANIES HAVE SURVIVED
SO THE OVERALL INDEX IS MORE
VALUABLE BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY THE
LARGE CAPS
AND SOME OF THE BIG TECH NAMES
DID SURVIVE MAY HAVE MORE
CLIENTS BECAUSE THEY HAVE LESS
COMPETITION SO I THINK THAT'S
THE BIGGEST LESSON TO TAKE FROM
THIS IS THAT THE ECONOMY AND
THE STOCK MARKET OR NOT IT
ACTUALLY THEY CAN SPLIT APART
PRETTY WIDELY.
>> A VERY GOOD REMINDER
FOR US ONE YEAR LATER ABOUT