IN JUST A MOMENT FOR MORE ON
WHAT IS MOVING THE MARKETS THIS
MORNING, I'M JOINED BY JORDAN
JACKSON VICE
PRESIDENT AND GLOBAL MARKET
STRATEGIST FOR JP MORGAN ASSET
MANAGEMENT JORDAN. IT'S GOOD TO
HAVE YOU WITH ME THIS AS SOON
AS 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD
CERTAINLY RISING. NOW ABOVE
1.6% AFTER HOVERING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS BELOW THAT LEVEL
AS THE FED IS SET TO GIVE US AN
INTEREST RATE DECISION THIS
AFTERNOON. WHAT ARE YOU
EXPECTING FROM THE CENTRAL
BANK.
>> REALLY NOT MUCH. WE'RE
EXPECTING AT LEAST FOR THIS
MEETING FOR THE FED TO TRY TO
CONTINUE TO PROFESS
THIS EASY ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE
THAT THEY'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT
FOR QUITE SOME TIME HERE WE
DON'T EXPECT ANY CHANGES TO
THEIR ASSET PURCHASE PROGRAM
AND AGAIN WE THINK THEY WANT TO
KEEP INTEREST RATES ON HOLD I
THINK THE BIG QUESTION
MARK IS. IN THIS RAPIDLY
IMPROVING ECONOMY WE'RE GOING
TO SOME INFLATION LATER ON THIS
WEEKEND. WE GET GDP TOMORROW.
THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT THAT WE'VE SEEN IN
THE LABOR MARKET NUMBERS ARE
GOING TO BE SEEING IT IN THE
MANUFACTURING SECTOR FROM FROM
THE PM EYES. IT SOME OF THE
INFLATIONARY MONTH OVER MONTH
INFLATION, EVERY THAT WE'VE
HAVE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT, BUT I
STILL THINK IT'S TOO PREMATURE
FOR THEM TO BE COULD BEGIN
SPEAKING POLICY. NOW WHERE I DO
THINK THEY MAY START YOU CAN
TALKING ABOUT THIS JUST IN THE
BALANCE SHEET OR OR OF THEIR
PROPERTY SAYS IT'S PROBABLY AS
SOON AS JULY THAT'S WHEN WE'LL
HAVE 2 BACK-TO-BACK QUARTERS OF
VERY STRONG
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND I AT LEAST
HAVE TO BEGIN START TO TALK
ABOUT A TAPERING OF ABOUT YOU.
>> OKAY SO I I THINK THAT IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT AT JORDAN
WITH WHAT WE EXPECT ACROSS THE
STREET FROM THE OTHER BANKS AS
WELL NO MOVEMENT ON INTEREST
RATES BUT OF COURSE ANY
COMMENTARY ON THE ECONOMY I
THINK IS GOING TO BE KEENLY
AND FOCUS AND THE PACE OF THE
ECONOMIC RECOVERY. THE PACE OF
THE EMPLOYMENT PICTURE GETTING
BACK TO A LEVEL OF FULL
EMPLOYMENT WHEN WE CAN ACTUALLY
ACHIEVE THAT LEVEL
AND OF COURSE INFLATION AS YOU
MENTIONED AS WELL DO EXPECT IT
WILL BE A MARKET MOVING EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON.
>> I DON'T THINK SO I THINK IF
ANYTHING YOU MIGHT
A LITTLE BIT OF UNEASINESS
LEADING INTO THE BEATING.
BUT I THINK.
>> O PAOLO ADOPT THE A GOOD
BEDSIDE MANNER.
>> TO TRY TO EASE MARKET AGAIN
BY CONTINUE TO PROFESS THAT
VERY ACCOMMODATIVE STANCE AT
LEAST FOR FOR THE TIME BEING.
>> ALL RIGHT LET'S TALK ON THE
EVE OF BIDEN'S ONE 100TH DAY IN
OFFICE IT'S HIS FIRST JOINT
ADDRESS TO CONGRESS
AT THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
REALLY TRY TO DRUM UP FAVOR FOR
HIS AMERICA'S FAMILY PLAN AS
WELL AS INCREASES IN THE TAX
RATE OF COURSE TO ACCOMMODATE
SOME OF THIS INCREASE IN
SPENDING AND THAT
INFRASTRUCTURE
AS WELL INVESTORS LOOKING AT
WHEN IT COMES TO THIS SPEECH
THEY WERE GOING TO GET FROM
BIDEN THIS EVENING.
>> I REALLY THINK THEY'RE GOING
TO LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON
WITH TAXES READ HOW WE'RE GOING
TO TO TO TO PAY FOR ALL WE
RECOGNIZE THAT IT'S LIKELY THAT
SOME SORT OF INCREASING THE
CORPORATE
TAX RATES. IT'S GOING TO BE
LIKELY FROM 21%. WE DON'T THINK
IT GETS ALL OF THE 20 BACK UP
TO 28% BUT WE GET IT
AND SOMEWHERE AROUND 25%.
HE'S ALSO TALKED HIGHER CAPITAL
GAINS TAXES AS WELL AND LOOK I
THINK
THAT ONE WE'VE SEEN THIS
DISPLAY UP FRONT ABOUT 4 TIMES
IN THE PAST 50 YEARS WE SAW AN
INCREASE IN CAPITAL GAINS TAX
AND 69 AND 76 IN
87 AND IN 2013 2 OUT OF THOSE 4
TIMES IN THE SUBSEQUENT 12
MONTHS OF THOSE OF GET CAPITAL
GAINS HIKES. YOU SAW THE MARKET
BEFORE WELL, AND IT'S REALLY
JUST A FUNCTION OF HOW HOW WELL
THE ECONOMY IS PERFORMING AT
THAT GIVEN TIME AND SO YOU KNOW
THE ECONOMY IS PERFORMING WELL
AND WE THINK THIS MOMENTUM IS
GOING TO CONTINUE TO CARRY AS
THE PANDEMIC RECEIPTS IN
AND VACCINE DISTRIBUTION
CONTINUE TO BE A PRETTY ROBUST
SO I YOU KNOW I THINK WHILE
THERE WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
TAXES I THINK THE BROADER
ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS GOING TO
BE STRONGER TELL FOR STOCKS NOW
THAT ISN'T TO SAY IN 2022 A
HIGHER CORPORATE TAX RATE THAT
THEY'RE NOT
WE RAN THE NUMBERS ROUGHLY 8 TO
$10 AND EARNINGS PER THAT COULD
CAUSE A LITTLE BIT OF A WOBBLE
BUT AGAIN I THINK THE STRONGER
TAIL WIND IS GOING TO BE A
STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH.
>> SO WE HAVE HAD A PRETTY
STRONG START TO EARNINGS
SEASON. ACTUALLY RECORD
QUARTERS AFTER SEVERAL OF THE
MAJOR COMPANIES MICROSOFT S
LIKE GET THOSE STOCKS FALLING
AS MAJOR HUGE BOX WITH
OUTSIZE IMPACTS ON THE MAJOR
INDEXES, THE NASDAQ THE S AND P
500 AND IN MICROSOFT'S THE DOW
THOSE TALKS ACTUALLY FALLING IN
THE WAKE OF THOSE
RECORD REPORTS ALPHABET IS A
STANDOUT AT OPENING AT A RECORD
HIGH TODAY. SO THAT IS A
BENEFIT THOUGH IT ISN'T PART OF
THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
AVERAGE. WHAT CAN YOU GLEAN
FROM THE EARNING SEASON, SO FAR
WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THIS
ECONOMIC RECOVERY.
>> WHAT'S INTERESTING MANY OF
THE TRENDS THAT WE SAW THERE
WERE A TAIL WIND TO A LOT OF
THESE TECH STOCKS THROUGHOUT
THE PANDEMIC ARE CONTINUE TO BE
A
TAILWIND TODAY. YOU KNOW WE'RE
STILL AT HOME. WE'RE STILL
CONDUCTING THIS VIA ZOOM SO
THAT'S STILL GOING TO CONTINUE
TO BE I TELL WHEN THAT SO
WE ARE PRETTY MUCH FULLY BACK
TO NORMAL WE LOOK AT ALL THE
OTHER SECTORS SECTORS AND AREAS
INDUSTRIALS
AND ENERGY. NO STINGS ARE STILL
LOOKING CHALLENGE THAT THAT
YEAR-OVER-YEAR GROWTH STILL
POSITIVE JUST BECAUSE THE LAST
THE 1ST QUARTER OF 2020.
IT WAS REALLY THE BOTTOMING
OUT, BUT IT'S REALLY ABOUT THE
EXPECTATIONS GOING
WHEN WE LOOK AT SOME OF THE
SOME OF THE AIRLINES AND WHAT
THEY'RE THE EXPECTATIONS ARE
YOU KNOW BY THE END OF THIS
YEAR MOVING INTO 2022 THEY
FINALLY REACH SOME OF THOSE
THAT TWENTY-NINETEEN ADJUSTED
EARNINGS LEVELS. BY THE BY THE
END OF THIS YEAR THAT THE 2022
AND I THINK AGAIN THOSE
EXPECTATIONS ARE ONLY THROUGH
THROUGH SOME OF THOSE
INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES THOSE
DEFENSE SPENDING COMPANIES
AGAIN AND SO
I THINK WHILE WE EXPECT THOSE
TO REBOUND REALLY STRONGLY.
YOU KNOW THIS QUARTER, THE NEXT
COUPLE QUARTERS MAY CONTINUE TO
BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE THERE
WHAT.
>> INVESTI NIGHT
JORDAN INVESTORS BY RIGHT NOW
WHERE DO YOU SEE OPPORTUNITY
AND WHAT DO YOU RECOMMEND THAT
THEY SELL.
>> SO GENERALLY SPEAKING WE
STILL THINK THAT THERE'S THERE
ARE SOME OPPORTUNITIES IN THE
VALUE PARTS OF THE MARKET WHEN
YOU LOOK AT VALUATIONS
VALUATIONS STILL BIT
STILL FAVOR SOME SEGMENTS OF
VALUE OF FINANCIALS HAVE HAD
REALLY REALLY
IMPRESSIVE QUARTER. AS WELL AND
SO FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR FOR
INCOME, YOU KNOW SOME OF THOSE
FOR ITS WE THINK COULD BE COULD
BE AN INTERESTING PLAY AS WELL.
AND YOU KNOW WE STILL THINK
THAT GENERALLY SPEAKING RIGHT
YOU WANT TO BE RIGHT SO I STILL
THINK THERE SHOULD BE
A TILT TOWARDS EQUITIES IN THE
PORTFOLIO OVER OVER THINGS LIKE
FIXED AND SO
WHILE WE WERE SEEING WORST THAT
WOULD GENERALLY TAKING SORT OF
A RISK BUT MORE
RISKY APPROACH. I THINK
ELSEWHERE EVEN COMMODITIES
RIGHT I THINK THERE'S A STRONG
A CASE OR
A PICKUP IN AND WE'VE SEEN
COPPER PRICES OF REACH NEW
ALL-TIME HIGHS AND SO I THINK
AS THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
CONTINUES
TO RECOVER IT'S A DEMAND FOR
FOR TRANSPORT AND TRAVEL IN US
GETTING BACK TO NORMAL. I THINK
DOES I COULD CONTINUE TO BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR COMMODITY PRICES
WELL, MORE BROADLY.
>> LET'S HOPE ADD THAT THAT YOU