TO YOU ALL RIGHT NOW TURNING
BACK TO THE MAJOR AVERAGES
JOINING US NOW IS REBECCA WALTZ
OR PRESIDENT OF
ALSO HEALTH MANAGEMENT AND BIG
DAY FOR THE MAJOR INDEXES.
REBECCA, WHAT ARE YOUR BIGGEST
TAKE AWAYS FROM
♪
TODAY'S ACTIVITY.
WELL OBVIOUSLY I'M REALLY HAPPY
CAN BUT I DON'T WANT TO GET
GOOD THING.
>> CART BEFORE THE HORSE HERE
BECAUSE I ACTUALLY THINK WE'RE
STILL AND FOR A SLEW
OF VOLATILITY. YOU KNOW YOU CAN
SEE HOW RECOVERY IS WHEN YOU
GET BAD NEWS AND THE MARKET
STARTS TO CRASH AND AS YOU
MENTIONED EARLIER BLACK FRIDAY
WAS ONE OF THE BEGINNING OF
THIS LAST BALL LITTLE CYCLE.
AND AS YOU SAW LAST WEEK YOU
KNOW WE WERE TO
THE PA POSITIVE ON MONDAY
RECOVERING FROM BLACK FRIDAY
AND THEN WE WERE DOWN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECAUSE
OF JEROME POWELL MENTIONING
BEFORE
THE SENATE THAT INFLATION WAS
NO LONGER POTENTIALLY
TRANSITORY AND SO WE HAD 2 BAD
DAYS AND RECOVERED ON THURSDAY
THEN WENT BACK DOWN ON FRIDAY
NOW RECOVERING AGAIN ON MONDAY.
SO YOU CAN SEE THE AND THE KIND
OF PING PONG THAT
RIP LANE. WELL I THINK IT'S
GOOD NEWS CAN IS THAT THE THE
WORLD HAS MADE ME REALIZE THAT
THEY DON'T NEED TO OVERREACH
BACK EVERY SINGLE TIME A NEW
VARIANT COMES OUT WE SHOULD
PROBABLY WILL GUIDE GIVE
OURSELVES TIME TO DIGEST DATA,
I KNOW THAT THERE ARE COUNTRIES
AUSTRIA, SPECIFICALLY IN EUROPE
THAT ARE SHUTTING DOWN LOCKING
DOWN AGAIN AND YOU KNOW YET
WE HAVE THIS AFRICAN DOCTOR WHO
DISCOVERED IT SAYING THAT THE
SYMPTOMS ARE VERY MILD THAT
THERE'S NOT EVEN THE
HOSPITALIZATIONS I THAT TIME
SHE MADE THAT STATEMENT IN
SOUTH AFRICA. SO I THINK THAT
IT'S GOOD NEWS THAT THE MARKET
IS HEY MAYBE WE OVERREACTED ON
ON THIS NEW
VARIANT BUT WE NEED TO SEE THAT
MORE OFTEN THAN NOT BE SO
FICKLE AS THE MARKET AND THAT'S
HARD BECAUSE THAT RECOVERY HAS
BEEN SHALLOW SO
FAR KEN.
>> SPEAKING ON THE OMICRON
VARIANT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT
HOW IT WENT UP IT WENT DOWN WE
KNOW WE STILL GOING TO SEE THAT
BECAUSE ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS LIKE
YOU'RE SAYING THAT FOLKSY TO
INGEST THE
DATA FIRST A LOT OF PEOPLE
AREN'T BUILT THAT WAY SO WHAT
DO YOU THINK THE INVESTOR
SENTIMENT IS GOING INTO YOU IN
THROUGHOUT THE MONTH.
>> YEAH, WE'RE EMOTIONAL
INVESTORS, YOU KNOW BECAUSE OF
SOMETHING CALLED OUR MONEY AND
SO YEAH I CARE ABOUT OUR MONEY.
HAPPENED WITH THE
VARIANT IT CAN STILL AFFECT
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL WHICH THEN
WILL PREP PRESSURE DOMESTIC
TRAVEL. IT WILL IT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESSURE THE
MARKETS AND THE MARKETS DON'T
LIKE UNCERTAINTY AND ANYTHING
THAT'S NEW AND IS ON CERTAIN WE
REACT NEGATIVELY TO INITIALLY
AND THEN WE BECOME DEFENSIVE
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT WE'RE SORT
OF UNWINDING THAT FROM LAST
WEEK'S TELL, BUT I DO THINK IF
WE HEAR OR YOU'RE LOCKING DOWN
IF WE DO START TO
SEE BACK DATA AND IT'S NOT
GOING TO BE GOOD FOR THE
MARKETS CAN WE ARE IN A REALLY
UNUSUAL POSITION
WHERE WE HAVE SOME STRONG
ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS BUT MOST
OF THAT IS STILL BEING PROPPED
UP WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE
SUPPORT OF A 120 BILLION A
MONTH, WE KNOW NOW THAT OUR
TALKING NEXT WEEK AT THE F O M
C ME ABOUT TAPERING FASTER SO
THAT WILL CONCLUDE IN MARCH
INSTEAD OF NEXT JUNE AND THAT
WELL THAT WOULD PUT A LOT MORE
PRESSURE ON THE MARKETS TO GO.
HELLO. WE HAVE A LOT
OF RESILIENCE AND YOU RELIANCE
IS THE RIGHT WORD, I'M LOOKING
FOR ON THE FED RIGHT NOW IN
FED POLICY.
>> NOW AIRLINES WERE AMONG THE
BIGGEST WINNERS TODAY THEY'VE
BEEN LOSERS
A FEW TIMES LAST WEEK SO DO YOU
ANTICIPATE THE TRAVEL AND
LEISURE STOCKS TO FIND
♪
CONTINUED SUCCESS. IN DECEMBER
OR ARE THEY A RISK AIRPLAY.
>> YOU KNOW, I'D SAY RIGHT NOW
CAN TRAVEL IS AND LUXURY IS
RISKIER ONLY BECAUSE AN AD ARE
JUST LITERALLY READ A OF A
NORWEGIAN CRUISE WHERE
EVERYBODY ON THE CRUISE WAS
VACCINATED AND THEY STILL CAME
DOWN WITH THE COVID OUTBREAK.
SO I THINK AS WE START TO SEE
STORIES LIKE THAT THAT WE'RE
STARTING TO WORRY STILL ABOUT
TRAVEL MORE IN THE SECOND THAT
THE ECONOMY STARTS TO MARKET
STARTS TO WORRY ABOUT THE
TRAVEL BEING A REALITY AND
REALIZABLE THE THE MORE THAT
PEOPLE ARE GOING TO PULL BACK
AND SAY LET ME JUST WAIT AND
SEE AND WE DON'T WANT THAT WAIT
AND SEE BECAUSE THAT'S WHEN
PEOPLE DON'T ACTUALLY INVEST OR
BUY THE DEBT BECAUSE THEY STILL
THINK MAYBE THE WORST IS NOT
YET TO COME IT IS YET TO COME
SO, YOU KNOW TRAVEL IS
SO INTERTWINED, YOU KNOW CAN
WITH THE VIRUS UNLESS
WE GET SOME REALLY POSITIVE
NEWS LIKE I JUST DISAPPEARED ON
US AND THERE'S NO THINK WE'RE
GOING TO SEE NOTHING
BUT A POSITIVE NEWS ON ON THAT
ON THE
TRAVEL STOCKS.
>> UNFORTUNATELY ALL RIGHT WHEN
IT COMES TO VOLATILITY ARE
♪
>> WE CONTINUE TO SEE THIS
THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER AND IF SO WHY OR WHY
NOT.
>> YES SO WE'RE DEFINITELY
GOING TO END MY OPINIONS
CONTINUE TO SEE VOLATILITY AND
THAT IS BECAUSE WE'RE IN A
TRANSITION TO A TRANSITION ERIC
PERIOD AND WE ARE LOOKING NEXT
WEEK FOR MORE GUIDANCE FROM THE
FED AT THEIR MEETING
NEXT WEEK ON THE 14TH AND 15TH
THAT WE'RE GOING TO FIND OUT OK
HOW FAST ARE
WE GOING TO TAPE ARE WE GOING
TO DO IT AS FAST AS MARCH AND
THE BEAR CONCERN CAN BESIDES
THE TAPERING OBVIOUSLY THAT
120 BILLION OF SUPPORT EVERY
MONTH IS SOMETHING THAT THE
MARKET HAS SORT OF COUNTED ON A
REALLY ENJOYED, BUT BEYOND THAT
TAPERS THE INTEREST RATE
INCREASES AND IF WE TAPE FOR
ALL THE WAY BY MARCH BECAUSE
THEY WANT THAT TAPER
TO FINISH BEFORE WE CAN EVEN
LOOK AT INTEREST RATE INCREASES
ON THE TABLE AND IF THE FED
STARTS TALKING RATE INCREASES
THE MARKETS NOT TO REACT TO
POSITIVELY
TO THAT WE'VE GOT A VERY
ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY THE
CORONAVIRUS AND THE MARKET IS
ENJOYED THAT AND NOW WE HAVE TO
REALLY SEE HOW STRONG THIS
MARKET IS WITHOUT THAT THAT
SUPPORT BEING PULLED BACK SO
WE'RE STILL IN TRANSITION
ANYTIME YOU'RE IN TRANSITION,
YOU POTENTIALLY COULD HAVE
REVERSION TO THE MEAN US THE
FED STARTS TO TAKE AWAY SOME OF
THAT SUPPORT ALL RIGHT SO IT
WAS JUST
LAST WEEK THAT FED CHAIR JEROME
POWELL DISCUSSED ACCELERATE THE
TIMETABLE FOR THE TAPERING OF
MONTHLY BOND PURCHASES NOW IN
YOUR OPINION.
>> HOW MOST THE FED PROCEED
WITH VARIABLES IN THE
♪
>> MARKET LIKE THE OMICRON
VARIANT AND I DON'T NOW
INFLATION.
>> THIS IS THEIR PROBLEM CAN
YOU KNOW THEY THEY
REALLY ARE THEY BACKED
THEMSELVES INTO A CORNER, BUT
THEY REALLY TOOK A STRONG
STANCE INITIALLY SAYING THAT
INFLATION IS TRANSITORY AND NOW
WE'RE STARTING TO SEE DATA OVER
THE LONGER TERM
WE'RE GETTING OBVIOUSLY OVER A
YEAR NOW AND WE'RE STARTING TO
SEE REAL YEAR OVER YEAR
INCREASES AT AND CORE CPI OVER
5% YEAR-OVER-YEAR OF CORE CPI
AND AS YOU
KNOW CANNON OUR OUR WATCHERS
KNOW COURSE HE HAD PBI DOES NOT
INCLUDE FOOD OR ENERGY SO WHEN
YOU INCLUDE FOOD AND ENERGY
HE'S GOT 20 TO 30% IN
SOME SECTORS OF INCREASES
SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE SUPPLY
CHAIN ISSUES BECAUSE OF THE
VIRUS AND IT IS A PROBLEM.
SO I'M
THE ASSISTANT HAS A VERY
DELICATE ROAD TO WALK US IS THE
MOST BALANCE AT BALANCED ACT
THEY HAVE
TO PERFORM OF ALL OF THEIR JOBS
HOW TO STIMULATE TO KEEP AWAY.
A DEPRESSION THAT WOULD TAKE US
YOU KNOW PROBABLY DECADES TO
RECOVER
FROM YEAH NOT OVER STIMULATED
THAT WHEN THEY START TO PULL
BACK THE MARKET STARTS TO
REALLY GO CRAZY AND SO IT'S A
VERY DIFFICULT TASK FOR THEM
AND I WOULD I WOULD TELL PEOPLE
TO EXPECT VOLATILITY IN
DECEMBER AND JANUARY ABSOLUTELY
ALL RIGHT SO ON THAT SENTIMENT
WHAT ADVICE
TO YOU.
>> HAVE FOR THE NEWER INVESTOR
IN NAVIGATING THE MARKET DURING
THE HOLIDAY SEASON IF NEW
INVESTOR
YOU'RE WATCHING. GOOD LUCK IT
HAS BEEN A WILD RIDE. THE
ADVICE DO YOU HAVE FOR THEM
THAT THEY GAVE THE AUDIENCE IS
IT. IT'S A
GREAT QUESTION.
>> A LOT OF PEOPLE AND MAYBE
NOT NEW INVESTORS BUT A LOT OF
OUR TRADITIONAL INVESTORS,
LONG-TERM INVESTORS KNOW THAT
THERE'S A SANTA CLAUS EFFECT IN
DECEMBER WE MIGHT NOT GET THAT
THIS YEAR BECAUSE OF THE LABOR
MARKET PROBLEMS WE HAVE
OBVIOUSLY WE SAW IN NOVEMBER
A FAD JOBS, WORST JOBS RECORD
OF THIS ADMINISTRATION
KNOTS FAR AND NOT EVEN THE
SEASONAL EMPLOYMENT OF YOU KNOW
THE CHRISTMAS HIRES REALLY
HELPED WE WE MISSED OUR JOBS
REPORT BY 300,000
PLUS LAST FRIDAY. YOU KNOW I
WOULD JUST SAY IF YOU'RE
EXPECTING A SANTA CLAUS EFFECT
MAYBE THINK MORE LIKE 2018
WE'RE GOING THROUGH A TAPER AND
REMEMBER THAT CHRISTMAS EVE
THAT WAS NOT FUN FOR HALF A DAY
OF THE MARKET WE LOST A 1000
POINTS. SO I'M JUST WARNING
PEOPLE TO BE PRETTY REALISTIC
AND THIS TIME WHERE WE ARE
GOING STILL A GLOBAL CRISIS
THAT IS NOT YET FINISHED
REARING ITS UGLY HEAD AND NOW
WE'RE STARTING TO TAPER BE