A PERCENT. WE DO WANT TO BRING
IN OUR NEXT GUEST ON THIS PHOTO
FINISH FOR THE DOW JONES
INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE WE'VE GOT
GOOD FOR THE SHOW JOHN
TREATIES WHO IS THE PORTFOLIO
MANAGER AT TOCQUEVILLE ASSET
MANAGEMENT JOHN GREAT TO SPEAK
WITH YOU ON THE DAY HELP US
MAKE SENSE OF SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY THAT WE SAW
LATE DAY APPLE PUSHING THE
MAJOR AVERAGES JUST A LITTLE
BIT LOWER HERE ULTIMATELY DID
CLOSE POSITIVE THOUGH PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD ACTUALLY.
>> I THINK WHAT WE'VE HEARD
THANKS FOR BEING ON. BUT I
THINK WHAT WE'VE HEARD. OVER
THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND SOME OF THE
CONFERENCES THAT HAVE BEEN
GOING ON AROUND THE STREET IS
THAT VIRUS
REALLY IMPROVING. YOU SEEN A
WHOLE BUNCH OF COMPANIES ACROSS
DIFFERENT SECTORS, NOT JUST
TECHNOLOGY THAT ARE
EITHER COULD FROM ING THEIR
REAFFIRMING AND IF YOUR NUMBERS
IMPROVING THE END OF YOUR
NUMBERS YOU'RE SEEING NOW
MERGER MONDAY IS BACK WHICH IS
A VERY GOOD SIGN OF CONFIDENCE
WE SEE A LOT OF
LEADING INDICATORS. ACROSS THE
ONGOING ECONOMIC TV GOT
POINTING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
AND THEN CLEARLY WHEN YOU EVENT
LET APPLE HABITS TODAY IN THEIR
FOCUS IS ON A BUNDLED PACKAGE
AND SERVICES YOU KNOW THAT
THAT'S A GOOD THING GIVEN
APPLE'S WEIGHT IS HIGHER THAN
MOST SECTORS IN THE S AND P
500. YOU KNOW THAT'S GOING TO
MOVE
THE NEEDLE.
>> CERTAINLY AND SO AS WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ACROSS THE
SECTORS, I'M JUST TAKING
ANOTHER QUICK
LOOK AT WHERE THE SECTOR'S
NETTED OUT HERE ON THE DAY AND
YOU KNOW WE HAD SEEN STRONG
PERFORMANCE ON ON THAT FRONT IS
THERE ANY TYPE OF KIND OF ROAD
TCHEN THAT YOU SEE EITHER
EXISTING IN THE NEW YEAR TERM
AS WE HAD SEEN A LITTLE BIT OF
VOLATILITY. THE STOCK
OFF THE 1ST HALF OF SEPTEMBER
BUT NOW WE'RE SEEING A LITTLE
BIT OF TRYING TO FIND FOOTING
FOR THE MARKETS WHERE INVESTORS
ARE LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE
FUTURE AND TRYING TO LOOK AS
FAR AS THEY CAN BE ON TO
WHATEVER SENT THAT THE CAN
BEYOND THE ELECTION RIGHT.
>> YEAH, I THINK OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS, YOU HAVE SEEN
CLEARLY MONEY TAKEN OFF THE
TABLE TO AGREE THE
TECH SECTOR AND YOU'VE SEEN
ROTATION INTO
THE INDUSTRY REAL CYCLICALS I
KNOW WE'RE GOING TO HEAR FROM
FEDEX A LITTLE BIT BUT YOU KNOW
THOSE PARTS OF THE ECONOMY THAT
BENEFIT FROM OVERALL
ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT. NOW WHAT
WE'RE NOT SEEING ROTATION YET
INTO DEEP VALUE I WOULD
CLASSIFY THAT AS FINANCIALS AND
ENERGY THOSE 2 SECTORS. I HAVE
REALLY STRUGGLED THROUGHOUT THE
YEAR. HIT EM.
SO PERHAPS HARVESTING UP FOR A
LOSS TO
OFFSETS GOING TO BE A HEADWIND
BUT YOU'RE SEEING ROTATION TO A
BIT OF THE INDUSTRIAL SICKLES
HERE I THINK IS A IS A VERY
GOOD SIGN.
>> CERTAINLY AND SO AS I THINK
ABOUT WHAT SOME OF THE
EXPECTATIONS WERE OR WHETHER
THAT
BE FROM THE WHITE HOUSE AND
THEIR COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC
ADVISORS OR WHETHER IT BE FROM
SOME OF THE
MAJOR BANKS. THE PROJECTIONS
WERE THAT IN Q 3 THAT'S WHEN WE
WOULD ACTUALLY SEE THE BOTTOM
AND THEN START TO BOUNCE BACK
ARE WE STILL ON TRACK FOR THEM.
IT SEEMS
THAT WAY.
>> YOU AGAIN THE WHOLE THE
PREMISE OF AN
ECONOMIC RECOVERY WILL DEPEND
ON WHEN A VACCINE OR MULTIPLE
VACCINES ARE NOT PRUDE BUT THIS
TRIBUTE TO
THE MASSES AND THE LONGER THAT
THAT
PROCESS TAKES. THE LONGER THE
MORE TIME THAT IS THAT PASSES
THAT PEOPLE RUN OUT OF
LIQUIDITY. SO CLEARLY THAT
ANOTHER FISCAL STIMULUS PACKAGE
WILL BE HELPED TO GET TO
THE CONSUMER. BUT THE LONGER
THAT IT TAKES FOR A VACCINE TO
GET DISTRIBUTED. THEN THE
LONGER THIS ECONOMIC RECOVERY
WILL TAKE. BUT IT SHOULD AND IT
WILL TAKE
YOU KNOW THE IDEA THAT THAT
THAT COVID IS NOT HERE.
AND COVID IS NOT
HERE FOREVER IS THE KEY IF YOU
THINK THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE IN
THIS PANDEMIC SOCIAL DISTANCE
STYLE OF LIVING FOR THE NEXT
2 YEARS THEN YOU KNOW AND THEN
THE STOCK MARKET IS OVERVALUED
TO YOU IF YOU DO THINK THAT
THIS ULTIMATELY COMES TO AN END
AND WE DO GET TO YOU. OF COURSE
IT WILL BE A NEW WORLD BUT WE
WILL GET BACK
TO YOU. SOME SORT OF NORMALCY
THAT WE SAW PRE COVID YOU KNOW
IN MANY CHURCHES, EURO PERCENT
INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT.
YOU KNOW STOCKS ARE COULD OVER
TIME GRAND HIGHER.
>> I THINK THAT'S A GOOD
REMINDER
OF COURSE PEOPLE WILL
ADAPT SON. HOW THEY ENGAGE THEY
SOCIALIZE WITH ONE ANOTHER
SOLUTIONS WILL ADAPT AND THAT
WE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS A VACCINE WHICH
ALL OF US SHOULD HOPE THAT WE
GET BUT THEN AS WE CONTINUE TO
TALK ABOUT A VACCINE. WE ALSO
HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE FACT
THAT MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO
BE SKEPTICAL ABOUT IT BECAUSE
OF THE OVERALL SENTIMENT AROUND
THE BROADER
NAMES THAT ARE DEVELOPING A
VACCINE RIGHT NOW WHICH OF ALL
LAST WEEK PLEDGED TO ONLY MOVE
FORWARD SAFELY WITH REGARD TO
ANY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
WHICH KIND OF PUT INTO QUESTION
AT THE MOMENT WHETHER THAT WAS
EVEN ON THE TABLE FOR
DISCUSSION WHETHER IT WOULD OR
WOULD NOT
BE SAFE. BUT YOU KNOW THAT
ASIDE IT DOES ALSO DEPEND UPON
THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE
THAT ARE RECEIVING THE VACCINE
AND ARE WILLING TO DO AND THEM
BEING PART OF THE BROADER KIND
OF SOLUTION HERE
AS WELL. WHAT TYPE OF RISK DOES
THAT PLACE IN TERMS OF THE
ECONOMIC EQUATION.
>> YEAH, YOU'RE CLEARLY THE
LESS EFFECTIVE THE VACCINES OR
THE LESS BAD I AM THAT YOU
HAVE FROM A UN I-FOUR BE
WILLING TO GO OUT THERE AND AND
BE
A TEST. ON THIS THEN BUT THE
LONGER THIS POLL LONG AS THE
WHOLE SEE YOU.
WE NEAR THE END ZONE OF
SOME SORT OF SOLUTION TO ALL OF
THIS RIGHT AND THEN BACK WE
WERE IN APRIL MAY
JUNE WHEN YOU KNOW WE WERE
HOPING YOU KNOW COMPANIES WOULD
COME OUT WITH A VACCINE RATHER
THAN IT BEING IMPLEMENT IT SO.
>> YOU KNOW OR WE CROSS THAT
BRIDGE TO GET TO THAT POINT.
THAT THAT'S GOING TO
BE KEY AND OF COURSE IT'S NOT
GOING TO BE SMOOTH SAILING, YOU
KNOW WE HAVE TO EXPECT ROUGH
PATCHES IN AND THE BOTTOM LINE
IS THE MARKET WILL REMAIN
VOLATILE FROM NOW UNTIL THAT.
>> AND THEN JUST LAST YEAR
SINCE WE MENTIONED WE COME BACK
THE STIMULUS YOUR PROSPECTS FOR
A STIMULUS DEAL BEFORE THE
ELECTION VERSUS POST-ELECTION.
>> YEAH, IT'S A GOOD QUESTION.
I DO THINK WE GET SOMETHING
DONE BEFORE
THE ELECTION. I THINK ALL
PARTIES INVOLVED WANT TO GO
BACK TO THEIR CONSTITUENTS AND
GO TO
THE POLLS. SAYING THAT YOU KNOW
THAT
THEY HAVE FOUND NO COMMON