INVESTMENT STRATEGY ANALYST
AT BAIRD.
>> ROSS WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF IT,
IT'S SORT OF PUZZLE.
>> BECAUSE WE GOT THAT GREAT
JOBS REPORT FOR THE MONTH
OF MARCH WHO ARE THE PEOPLE WHO
ARE AT THIS POINT IN THE
PANDEMIC OVER A YEAR IN AS
THINGS
ARE REOPENING THAT ARE FIRST
LOSING THEIR JOBS.
>> WELL I FIRST OF
ALL YOU SAID IT'S A
DISAPPOINTING NUMBER AND WHILE
THERE
CAN BE. SOME SHOPPING IN
VOLATILITY IN ANY ANY DAILY OR
WEEKLY DATA IT'S
IT'S DISAPPOINTING.
>> YOU KNOW THAT THE REALITY IS
THAT WE'RE WE'RE STILL IN A
PANDEMIC YOU KNOW I THINK WE
GET CAUGHT UP REALLY IMPROVING
BACK.
>> THE
SOME REOPENING DATA AND
MOBILITY DATA IMPROVING BY AND
PLENTY OF PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
THERE ARE STILL HOT SPOTS THERE
ARE
STILL STRONG THE THING WITH THE
WITH THE PANDEMIC CONTINUED ON
A STATE BY STATE BASIS OF ALL
PLENTY ARE MOVING IN A
BETTER DIRECTION. THERE ARE
ENOUGH MOVING IN THE WRONG
DIRECTION THAT ARE THAT ARE
PROBABLY CAUSING SERVICE SECTOR
EMPLOYS YOU FLUCTUATE ON
WHETHER THEY CAN GO
INTO WORK YOU KNOW THERE'S
THERE'S UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
WHICH WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE I THINK FOR PEOPLE TO FILE
BUT YEAH, I MEAN THAT YOU
KNOW THAT THE ULTIMATE THING IS
WE'RE STILL IN A PANDEMIC AND
WE'RE MOVING IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION BUT WE'RE JUST NOT
THERE YET.
>> I THINK THAT IT'S A GREAT IT
SEEMS LIKE THE
MARKET THOUGH DOESN'T THINK
WE'RE STILL IN A PANDEMIC OR AT
THE
VERY LEAST. IS LOOKING AT LEAST
A FEW MONTHS AHEAD, BUT HAS
BEEN DOING SO YOU KNOW
WE ALWAYS IN THE BEGINNING OF
THE PANDEMIC AS WE'RE SEEING A
BOUNCE BACK EVERY ANALYST I
SPOKE WITH WAS LIKE WELL WE'RE
FOCUSED ON
6 MONTHS. WELL 6 MONTHS LATER
THINGS WERE WORSE. THEY WERE IN
THE BEGINNING OF THE PANDEMIC
AND NO ONE CARES. SO
IT IS I DON'T KNOW WHAT DOES
THE MARKET JUST IT IS THE
PANDEMIC A NON-ISSUE AT THIS
POINT.
>> I DON'T THINK IT'S
A NON ISSUE, BUT IT'S CERTAINLY
NOT SOMETHING THAT THE MARKET
IS ESPECIALLY CONCERNED YOU
KNOW TO YOUR POINT OVER THE
PAST YEAR,
IT'S RALLIED, THERE YOU
KNOW WAVED THEM OF COVID-19
ACROSS THE COUNTRY ACROSS THE
GLOBE, IT RALLIED TOWARD
NEGATIVE
THROUGHOUT AND THE REALITY IS
THAT IT'S ABLE TO TO KIND OF
TAKEN THE STIMULUS TAKEN SOME
OF THAT SOME OF THE TRENDS AND
JUST LOOK LOOK OUT PASSES.
YOU KNOW NOW NOW UNDERNEATH THE
SURFACE OF THE MARKET,
YOU KNOW IT'S EASY TO LOOK AT
THE HEADLINE NUMBER AND HE
STRAIGHT STRAIGHT LINE UP.
BUT THERE'S BEEN A PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL ROTATION INTO THE
CANAL YOU STOCKED THERE'S BEEN
A. KIND OF A RECALIBRATION OF
WHAT THE MARKET LOOKS LIKE AND
WHAT IT'S DOING WELL. BUT THE
HEADLINE NUMBER HAS BEEN UP AND
TO THE RIGHT ESPECIALLY NOT
STOPPED BY MARCH RIGHT
ABOUT THAT.
>> WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING FOR
THE REST OF THE JUST IN TERMS
OF THE MARKET AND IS THERE
ANYTHING THAT COULD POTENTIALLY
CAUSE SOME TYPE OF PULL BACK.
>> I LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE
BIGGEST RISK THE MARKETING THE
ONE WE DON'T USE I CAN OPINE ON
IT ON A HANDFUL OF DIFFERENT
THINGS BUT THE REALITY IS
THE BIGGEST RISK TO THE MARKET
ARE LOOKING OUT THERE THAT
PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT RIGHT
YOU KNOW
THEY'RE THERE THE DATA THAT WE
DO WITH THAT RECENTLY AND OUR
RE SEARCH FROM ITS UK JUST AS
HAS BEEN TALKING
ABOUT IT WHAT YOUR WHAT YOUR TO
OFF OF A BEAR MARKET LOW,
TYPICALLY LOOKS LIKE
AND THE REALITY IS THAT AFTER
YOU KNOW USUALLY A STRONGER ONE
UP THAT BEAR MARKET YOUR
TO IS STILL YOU KNOW RETURNS IN
THE DOUBLE DIGITS ON AVERAGE
OVER OVER THE COURSE OF HISTORY
BUT MORE VOLATILITY CONTRACTION
ALONG
THE WAY. SOMETIMES EVEN YOU
KNOW 1015 20% PULL BACK SO
WE'RE LOOKING FOR A STRONG
YEAR, I MEAN IT'S HARD TO
TOO BEARISH WITH THE
THE ECONOMY DOES START TO RAMP
UP THE WAY IT IS AND A LOT OF
THE FACTORS WORKING IN THE
FAVOR OF THE BULL CASE, BUT
WE'RE EXPECTING MORE VOLATILITY
AND WE'RE WE'RE EXPECT YOU KNOW
LIKELY A PULL BACK ON
THE WAY.
>> ANY SPECIFIC SECTORS THAT
YOU THINK I HAVE A LOT OF ROOM
FOR GROWTH RIGHT NOW.
>> YEAH, I
MEAN WE STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK
AT THE CYCLICAL SECTORS, I KNOW
THEY'VE HAD A REALLY STRONG
RIGHT HAND OF
ALL THAT THE VACCINE NEWS IN
NOVEMBER, BUT THEY HAD
A HIDEAWAY TO GO TO CATCH UP TO
THE TO THE PERFORMANCE AND
RIGHT NOW STARING DOWN THE
BARREL.
REAL GDP GROWTH OF 6% PLUS
MULTIPLE YEARS OF REAL GDP
GROWTH WELL ABOVE TREND IF YOU
SAW JAMIE DIAMOND BUT IT'S LIKE
ABOUT 2020
3 WE THINK THE CYCLICAL AND
VALUE SECTORS REALLY HAVE SOME
LEGS TO RIGHT NOW THERE WILL BE
POSITIVE AND AND THE GROWTH
COMPANIES ARE STRONG OPERATORS
TO THAT
THEY YOU'RE PROBABLY CONTINUE
TO DO ALSO BUT THINGS LIKE
INDUSTRIAL FINANCIAL MATERIALS.
WE'RE LOOKING AT THOSE THAT ARE
THAT ARE MORE ECONOMICALLY
SENSITIVE AND TIED TO THE REAL
ECONOMY AND I THINK THERE'S
LIKE THAT.
>> WE HEARD FROM THE FED
YESTERDAY OR AT LEAST WE GOT
THOSE MINUTES FROM THE LAST
FED MEETING AND MORE OF THE
SAME REALLY NOTHING NOTHING
THAT WE WEREN'T EXPECTING JUST
INTERN BECAUSE OF OF THE FED
CONTINUING TO BE QUITE PATIENT.
IN TERMS OF RAISING INTEREST
RATES AND TO BE QUITE
ACCOMMODATIVE IS IT TO THE
POINT WHERE
THE MARKET.
>> THERE THEN YOU WILL NEVER
REALLY FALL IN ANY MEANINGFUL
WAY BECAUSE THE FED IS JUST
ALWAYS GOING TO BE
TO LIFT IT BACK UP AND IS THAT
HEALTHY FOR THE MARKET.
>> THAT'S A DEEP
>> IN THE MORNING,
>> YOU KNOW THERE THERE'S A LOT
YOU KNOW CHATTER ABOUT THE
KIND OF SAID PUT THAT THAT
KEEPS A PART OF THE MARKET I I
DO THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO
THINK
ABOUT THIS SPECIFIC RECESSION
IN CRISIS IN A DIFFERENT LIGHT
FROM YOU KNOW MAYBE MORE
TRADITIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE
WEAKNESS OR THE FLUCTUATIONS
AND AND THE ECONOMY THAT ARE
MORE NATURAL I MEAN THIS WAS
TRULY AN EXOTIC THE SHOCK.
A PANDEMIC
THAT THAT HER WORKERS THAT YOU
KNOW WE REALLY COULDN'T HAVE
DONE MUCH ABOUT NOW YOU CAN
ARGUE THAT COMPANIES SHOULD
HAVE BEEN BETTER POSITION THAN
HAVE STRONGER BALANCE SHEETS
POSITION FOR SOMETHING LIKE
THIS. BUT THE REALITY IS
THIS WAS THAT YOU KNOW
EQUIVALENT TO A NATURAL
DISASTER SORT SO I DO THINK THE
FED'S RESPONSE IN THIS
SITUATION. IS DIFFERENT FROM
WHAT THEY MIGHT DO GOING
FORWARD, BUT THERE IS A REAL
CONCERN THAT
THE MARKET. LIKE THE
ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY A LITTLE
BIT TOO MUCH AND IF THAT'S NOT
THEY'RE GOING FORWARD THERE
MIGHT BE SOME KINKS TO WORK
NOW WITH THAT SAID THAT YOU
KNOW THAT THAT THERE WASN'T
MUCH FROM THE FED YESTERDAY,
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE JOBLESS
CLAIMS NUMBER TO BRING IT ALL
BACK THIS MORNING.
THEIR FOCUS ON THE LABOR MARKET
AND THERE'S STILL OBVIOUSLY
PLENTY OF WEAKNESS
THEY'VE BEEN SUPER TRANSPARENT
ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE LOOKING AT
WHAT AND WHEN THEY'RE GOING TO
HAVE YOU KNOW COME OFF THEIR
YOU POLICY AND AS LONG AS THE