>> WELCOME BACK TO OUR POLITICS
EVER WANTED TO REACH OUT ALWAYS
THE
2020 PRESIDENTIAL ICE CONTINUES
TO HEAT UP ALL EYES ARE ON
THOSE EARLY STATES LIKE IOWA
NEW HAMPSHIRE AS DEMOCRATS
BATTLE TO BE THE CLEAR
NOMINEES THERE WHEN WE TURN TO
THE GENERAL ELECTION, IT'S
WIDELY ASSUMED THAT PRESIDENT
TRUMP WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT AT
WINNING REELECTION. ONLY IF HE
HANGS ON TO ONE OF THE 3 OF THE
BLUE WALL STATES THAT HE CRACK
BACK IN 2016
ONE OF THOSE HE'S WISCONSIN THE
STATE COULD DECIDE THE UPCOMING
ELECTION AFTER PRESIDENT
TRUMP'S SNAGGED IT BY JUST
22,000 VOTES IN 2016. NEW
POLLING SHOWS THAT THE
PRESIDENT COULD CAN
2 NEW TO MAINTAIN THAT LEAD
JOINING US NOW TO BREAK IT ALL
DOWN IS CHARLES FRANKLIN
DIRECTOR OF MARQUETTE LAW
SCHOOL OF
POLLING INSTITUTE CHARLES GREAT
TO HAVE YOU HERE, THANK YOU
SO MUCH. THE POLL SHOWS THE
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS BEATING ALL
THE DEMOCRATIC LEADERS OUT
THERE, WE KNOW DEMOCRATS KNOW
WISCONSIN'S VERY IMPORTANT FOR
THEM THAT'S WHY THEY HAVE THE
DNC IS GOING TO BE THERE THIS
YEAR. BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN
FOR DEMOCRATS HEADING INTO 2021
ALREADY THERE KEY STATE THAT
THEY NEED TO WIN. THEY'RE
ALREADY BEHIND THE PRESIDENT M.
>> YEAH, IT'S GOING TO BE A
CLOSE STATE YOU HAVE TO REALIZE
THAT IN 3 OF THE LAST
5 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS,
WISCONSIN HAS BEEN DECIDED BY
LESS THAN ONE PERCENTAGE POINT
SO THIS IS NOT UNUSUAL
FOR US. A MONTH AGO WE HAD
DEMOCRATS WITH SMALL WAGE BIDEN
SANDERS WARREN WERE ALL
WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR BUT
AHEAD OF TRUMP THIS MONTH
TRUMP'S AHEAD OF THEM BY MOSTLY
WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR
THAT'S WHAT YOU EXPECT IN A
BATTLEGROUND STATE THAT'S WHY
IT'S A BATTLEGROUND. IT'S CLOSE
AND IT'S GOING TO US WINNING A
LITTLE BIT ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
THIS MONTH WAS A GOOD MONTH FOR
THE PRESIDENT.
>> ALL RIGHT CHARLES TALK A
LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THE
DYNAMICS AS TO WHY WISCONSIN
HAS STARTED TO TREND CLOSER FOR
THE POOR THAT WE KNOW
WISCONSIN HAS TRADITIONALLY
ALWAYS BEEN A VERY RELIABLY
BLUE STATE FOR DEMOCRATS FOR
YEARS, WHAT HAS IT BEEN OVER
THE LAST COUPLE YEARS OF THE
DEMOGRAPHICS OF CHANGE TO
THE PRESIDENT.
>> WELL THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
THINGS ONE IS WHILE WE ARE THIS
PART OF THE BLUE WALL AS WE
WERE DOG. A LOT OF THOSE RACES
WERE VERY CLOSE LIKE I WAS JUST
TALKING ABOUT ALSO WE HAVE A
HISTORY OF DIVIDED GOVERNMENT
IN
THE STATE. RARELY OVER
THE LAST 35 OR 40 YEARS HAVE WE
HAD THE SAME PARTY IN CONTROL
OF BOTH THE GOVERNORSHIP AND
THE LEGISLATURE THAT CHANGED IN
2010 WITH THAT TEA
PARTY WAVE. SCOTT WALKER WON
THE GOVERNORSHIP OR TOP
REPUBLICANS TOOK THE
LEGISLATURE, SO WE'VE BEEN
RATHER DIFFERENT IN THAT TIME
SINCE 2010, BUT HISTORICALLY
WITH BIN A PRETTY CLOSELY
DIVIDED STATE BUT IN
PRESIDENTIAL RACES HAD HAD GONE
DEMOCRATIC IT BY SMALL MARGINS
SINCE 19 88 UP THE THING THAT
HAS CHANGE CENTS
26 THING IS
WHITE MEN WITHOUT A COLLEGE
DEGREE WHO MAKE UP ABOUT 27% OF
THE VOTING POPULATION
HAVE GONE FROM BEING 5 POINTS
MORE REPUBLICAN
TO NOW. 18 POINTS MORE
REPUBLICAN THAN DEMOCRAT IN
THEIR PARTISANSHIP OTHER GROUPS
HAVEN'T MOVED
VERY MUCH BUT WHAT THAT HAS
DONE IS SHIFT THE STATE FROM
BEING A NET 4 POINTS MORE
DEMOCRATIC TOO DEAD EVEN
IN PARTISANSHIP.
>> I WANT TO SHOW OUR VIEWERS
THE POLL ONCE AGAIN BECAUSE
AGAIN YOU GUYS THAT MARK HAD A
REALLY THE GOLD STANDARD FOR
WATCH OUT FOR BASICALLY
PREDICTING WHAT'S HAPPENING
WITH
THE STATE. WHAT'S INTERESTING
CHARLES IS JOE BIDEN IS REALLY
NECK AND NECK WITH PRESIDENT
TRUMP WHICH IS ALMOST EVERY
OTHER STATE. BUT ONE THING
THAT'S REALLY INTERESTING IS
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS REALLY
PULLING AHEAD OF BERNIE SANDERS
ELIZABETH WARREN AND EVEN PETE
BUTTIGIEG HERE. IT IS THIS
REALLY KIND OF A SHOWCASE THAT
JOE BIDEN NEEDS TO BE THE
NOMINEE FOR DEMOCRATS FOR
DEMOCRAT TO EVEN HAVE A HOPE OF
WINNING A STATE
LIKE WISCONSIN.
>> WELL HE HAS BEEN THE
STRONGEST OF BOTH FOR DEMOCRATS
WE'VE REALLY
FOCUSED ON BIDEN LED BY
9 IN AUGUST BY 6 IN OCTOBER BUT
NOW TRAILS BY 3 THAT'S STILL
THE STRONGEST OF
THE DEMOCRATS WHITE ON THE
OTHER HAND WAS TIED
IN AUGUST UP BY ONE AND OCTOBER
AND NOW DOWN BY THIS IS SORT OF
A LOW POINT OF FOR WARREN IN
HER NATIONAL POLLING IS
AS WELL SO THAT MAY BOUNCE BACK
UP OR OR
SANDERS HAS BEEN KIND OF STABLE
A CLOSE RACE EITHER LITTLE
AHEAD ARE A LITTLE BEHIND
PEOPLE TO JUDGE WHO IS TRAIL
THE PRESIDENT IN OUR PREVIOUS
POLLING TRAILS BY MORE IN THIS
RACE. THIS TIME WHAT'S GOING ON
IS REPUBLICANS ARE REALLY
COMING HOME TO THE PRESIDENT
BOTH IN SUPPORTING HIM ON
IMPEACHMENT AND IN VOTING
FOR HIM AND IN IN THIS NEW
NOVEMBER DATA DEMOCRATS ARE A
SHADE LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THE
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES. THAT'S
WHERE YOU GET A SHIFT OF 46
POINTS FROM LAST MONTH TO THIS
IN A
HORSE RACE.
>> I TRUST THE OTHER
INTERESTING THING THAT WAS IT
AND IT WAS IN
THIS POLL IS IMPEACHMENT 50% OF
WISCONSIN RESPONDENTS. I OPPOSE
IMPEACHMENT AND UP AND THROWING
OUT PRESIDENT TRUMP FROM OFFICE
THAT STEP WE WANT TO HIRE A
PERCENTAGE IS AGAINST
IMPEACHMENT WE'VE SEEN A LOT
OF STATES AND WE'VE SEEN A LOT
OF REPUBLICANS, ESPECIALLY
THOSE CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT
USED THIS POLL HAS REASON AS TO
WHY THE TRENDS AGAINST
IMPEACHMENT
HAVE CHANGED. WHAT IS IT ABOUT
IMPEACHMENT AS TO WHY WISCONSIN
VOTERS DO NOT FAVOR IT.
>> YEAH, I THINK WE SAW 4 POINT
DIP IN SUPPORT FOR IMPEACHMENT
BETWEEN OCTOBER AND NOW FROM 44
TO 40 ALL IN THE OCTOBER POLL
AND IN THIS ONE WISCONSIN HAS
BEEN A LITTLE LESS PRO IMPEDE
BUT THEN THE NATIONAL DATA
HAS SHOWN. I THINK YOU MIGHT
EXPECT THAT IN A BATTLEGROUND
STATE AND EVENLY
BALANCED STATE. THE SAME
REPUBLICAN RALLY BEHIND THE
PRESIDENT IS PART OF THIS ALSO
AN INCREASE IN ON CERTAIN THE
AMONG THE INDEPENDENTS WHO
BECAME A LITTLE BIT MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF IMPEACHMENT A
LITTLE BIT
LESS OPPOSITION BUT FIVE-POINT
INCREASE TO 15 PER CENT
UNDECIDED SO I THINK THERE'S
SOME MONTHS FOR ME THEY'RE THE
ONE THING WE SAW WAS THE
EVIDENCE BEGINNING TO GET
THROUGH THAT FOOTBALL TEAM YOU
WERE TALKING ABOUT EARLIER
SHOWED THAT IT'S OUR BELIEF
THAT TRUMP ASKED FOR AN
INVESTIGATION WAS OVER 50%.
BUT IT WAS JUST ABOUT 40% THE
BELIEVED HE HAD WITHHELD
MILLET, KERRY AIDE IN ORDER TO
PRESSURE UKRAINE OUR INTERVIEWS
WERE CONDUCTED DURING THE FIRST
WEEK OF
TESTIMONY BUT DID NOT INCLUDE
THE SECOND WEEK OF TESTIMONY SO
WHEN WE GO BACK IN THE FIELD
FOR THE NEXT INTERVIEW WE'LL
SEE WHETHER
PIECES OF EVIDENCE THAT WERE
PRESENTED IN
A SACK AND WEEK HAVE CHANGE
PEOPLE'S VIEWS ABOUT WHETHER
THE AID WAS WITH HELD OR NOT
AND THAT'S AIMS TO A FACT
PEOPLE'S VIEWS OF IMPEACHMENT
SO RAISING THE VIEWS THAT THOSE
THINGS HAPPENED MAY CHANGE THE
IMPEACHMENT. BALLOTS IN THE