>> AND GOOD NEW
YEAR'S EVE, EVERYONE WELCOME
BACK TO WAKE UP WITH CHEDDAR
I'M BAKER MACHADO IN NEW YORK
CONTINUE VACCINE ROLLOUTS
AROUND THE WORLD GIVING HOPE TO
THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY BUT
THE SHIFTING ALMOST SEE
OBVIOUSLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
OVERNIGHT IT POSSIBLY EVER
JASON GUGGENHEIM THE GLOBAL
HEAD OF TRAVEL AT BOSTON
CONSULTING GROUP JOINS US NOW
TO DISCUSS THE FUTURE OF THE
TRAVEL INDUSTRY JASON GOOD TO
HAVE YOU HERE, THANKS SO MUCH
FOR JOINING YESTERDAY THE TSA
SCREENED ROUGHLY HALF THE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT THEY
SCREENED LAST YEAR IN
2019. SO LOOKING AHEAD TO
TRAVEL FOR NEXT YEAR IN
2021. WHEN YOU REALLY EXPECT
THINGS TO REALLY PICK BACK UP
AGAIN FOR THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY.
>> YEAH, THANKS FOR HAVING IT'S
A GREAT QUESTION. I THINK IS AS
YOU START TO SEE THE VACCINE.
ROLLOUT THEY'RE DEFINITELY
SEEING MORE OPTIMISM ABOUT
CREDIBLE RETURNING TO MORE
NORMAL IN TERMS OF RETURNING TO
2019 LEVELS THAT OUR VIEW IS
THAT THAT'S GOING TO TAKE
SEVERAL YEARS PROBABLY MORE
LIKE 23. IT TOOK
2024. AND SO YOU SEE THE FULL
EXTENT OF
2019 BUT I THINK WITH VACCINE
CONFIDENCE. I THINK YOU WILL
SEE IN THE U.S. AND LEVELS
REACH MORE
MORE NORMAL SLIGHTLY MORE
NORMAL LEVELS AND THEY HAVE
BEEN DURING
2020.
>> JASON WE LOOK AT THE LAST
YEAR WHAT SORT OF LAW LASTING
IMPACTS DO YOU THINK THIS
LAST YEAR WILL HAVE ON THE
TRAVEL INDUSTRY THAT THEY MAY
NOT RECOVER FROM.
>> YEAH, I DO THINK THERE'S
BEEN A LOT OF PRESSURE ON COST
STRUCTURES IN THE TRAVEL
INDUSTRY AND SO I THINK YOU'VE
SEEN A LOT OF THE CREDIBLE
PLAYERS WITH ITS ALLIES CRUISE
LINES, THE
AUTO COMPANIES. REALLY LOOK ALL
THAT THEY COST STRUCTURE AND I
THINK IT'S GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE FOR THEM TO TO BE TO
BECOME US PROFITABLE AS THEY
WERE IN 2018 2019 SO
I THINK THE LAST THING IMPACT
AND JUST TO REDUCE THE MONS
INCREASE COST ALL OF HEALTH AND
SCREENING AND PPE IT SET TO
PLACE PRESSURE ON THEM FOR FOR
A NUMBER OF YOU KNOWS ALSO
THINK TECHNOLOGY AND
SUSTAINABILITY WILL HAVE LOST
HIM. THAT'S THAT'S YOU KNOW I
DON'T THINK WE REALIZE WE COULD
GET BY DOING INTERVIEWS AND IN
A WAY LIKE THIS AND MEETING
PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY AND SO I
DO THINK THERE WILL BE ELEMENTS
OF BUSINESS TRAVEL THAT WILL BE
PERMANENTLY AS YOU MOVE FORWARD
WHAT ABOUT THE VACCINE
ESSENTIALLY HOW.
>> HOW CRITICAL IS THIS
VACCINE. JASON GOING TO BE TO
GET THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY BACK ON
ITS
HEELS AGAIN AGAIN A LOT OF
EXPERTS ARE SAYING WE MIGHT NOT
SEE MOST OF AMERICANS GET
VACCINATED BEFORE THE END OF
THE FALL BEFORE THE START OF
THE FALL SO CLEARLY IT'S GOING
TO TAKE A WHILE BUT JUST HOW
CRUCIAL IS THAT VACCINE.
YEAH OUR RESEARCH TELLS US IT'S
IT'S THE MOST CRUCIAL ON LOT TO
TRAVEL
THEM ON.
>> AND THE RESEARCH WE'VE DONE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF 2020 WILL
TELL US THAT OVER 50% OF THE
PEOPLE SO BELIEVE THAT THE
VACCINE IS ON LOCK FOR THEM
PROBABLY YOU DID MENTION THE
TSA NUMBERS YOU KNOW PLAY WE
WERE SEEING TSA NUMBERS
HITTING FIRST HE JUST BEFORE
CHRISTMAS YOU SAW IT HIT 60% OF
THE 2019 LEVELS
AND SO YOU ARE SEEING MORE
CONFIDENCE EVEN PRE VACCINE
WITH THE HOPE OF VACCINE I
THINK AS IT ROLLS OUT SLOWLY
THROUGH 2021 WHICH I THINK IS
MOST PEOPLE SAY
SPECULATIONS AS THE MOM COMES
BACK, I THINK YOU'LL STILL SEE
SOME PEOPLE
THAT THAT REFUSED TO UNTIL THAT
IS FULLY FULLY ROLLED OUT ON SO
THERE IS YOU KNOW OPTIMISM BUT
I THINK
STILL MEASURE.
>> FOR 2021. WELL AND ALSO
THERE'S BEEN SOME PROPOSALS OUT
THERE JASON THAT MAYBE WE MIGHT
SEE VACCINE PASSPORTS THAT
PEOPLE HAVE TO GET
IF ESPECIALLY IF THE WANTING TO
TRAVEL INTERNATIONALLY JUST TO
PROVE THAT THEY HAVE
THE VACCINE. EXECUTIVE THE
THING THAT YOU MIGHT SEE NOT
JUST INTERNATIONALLY BUT MAYBE
DOMESTICALLY AS WELL A LOT OF
THESE AIRLINE CARRIERS
ESSENTIALLY SAYING YOU HAVE TO
PROVE YOU'VE BEEN VACCINATED.
>> YEAH I THINK THERE'S THERE'S
A LOT OF MURKINESS AROUND THE
TOPIC I MEAN
MUCH LIKE AND TRAVEL OVER
THE LAST YOU KNOW 4 TO 5, 6,
MONTHS YOU'VE SEEN DIFFERENT
PROTOCOLS BY DIFFERENT
AIRLINES, DIFFERENT PROTOCOLS
BY DIFFERENT COUNTRIES TO ALLOW
PEOPLE IN REQUIRING YOU KNOW
NEGATIVE TEST WITHIN 72 HOURS.
I THINK YOU'LL SEE SIMILAR
STANDARDS. AROUND VACCINATION
AND SO PROOF OF
VACCINATION I I DO IMAGINE THAT
DIFFERENT AIRLINES CRUISE LINES
ET CETERA. LODGING POTENTIALLY
POSED
BY GOVERNMENTS. OR REQUIRE
PROOF OF VACCINATION BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS ON THE
DOMESTIC FRONT. I'M
NOT SURE WHETHER WHETHER
AIRLINES WILL WILL REQUIRE THAT
THEY HAVEN'T REQUIRED NO PROOF
OF
NEGATIVE TEST TO BE ABLE TO FLY
BETWEEN STATES OF THE
U.S. O I'M NOT THAT WILL
REQUIRE PROOF OF VACCINATION TO
FLY WITHIN THE COUNTRY BUT
CERTAINLY CROSSING
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS. I THINK
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THAT DOES BECOME
A REQUIREMENT.
>> THROUGHOUT THE LAST YEAR THE
AIRLINE INDUSTRY OF COURSE
WHICH WAS REALLY HURTING WITH
MONEY AND JOBS AND EVERYTHING
THE LAST YEAR REALLY TRIED TO
MAKE THINGS EASIER FOR US AS
CONSUMERS WITH THE LAST A
LITTLE WHILE OBVIOUSLY MAKING
BOOKING EASIER A LOT OF THE
DOMESTIC CARRIERS GOT RID OF
THOSE GUIDE. THOSE
CHANGE FEES THAT USUALLY COST
ABOUT $200 FOR YOU TO CHANGE
YOUR FLIGHTS OBVIOUSLY GOOD
THINGS FOR US FOR CONSUMERS.
BUT HOW MUCH LONGER DO YOU
ENVISION THAT STAYING AROUND
UNTIL THE AIRLINE CARRIERS
DECIDE TO GET RID OF THOSE
POLICIES AGAIN.
>> YEAH I THINK WITH I MEAN
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY EVEN AS
AS THE VACCINE. ROLL-OUT I
THINK YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MUCH
OF THOSE POLICIES REMAIN AT
LEAST FOR 2021 BROUGHT THE
PROBLEM OF IT'S GOING TO
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAIN.
I THINK I THINK FOR MANY A
LAUNCH THAT WILL ACTUALLY KEEP
THEM MET SOME OF THEM MAYBE NOT
ALL OF THEM PERMANENT RIGHT IT
IS A BENEFIT TO THE CUSTOMER.
AS I IS GOING TO BE HARD TO
COME BY CERTAINLY
TWENTY-NINETEEN LEVELS OF THEM
ON AND SO ITS CUSTOMERS VALUE
THINGS LIKE FLEXIBILITY.
AN AIRLINE'S BELIEVE THEY CAN
MAKE THE ECONOMICS WORK TO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THAT
FLEXIBILITY. I CAN IMAGINE THAT
THEY WILL TRY AND USE THAT TO
THEIR ADVANTAGE TO TRY AND
BRING BACK MORE CUSTOMERS GIVE
THEM CONFIDENCE BUT EVEN IN A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
2021. THE TRAVEL PLANS CAN BE
REFUNDS DATE CHANGES EXCEPT