JOINING ME NOW FOR HIS TAKE ON
EARLY MORNING TRADING THAT
WE'VE SEEN THAT
AS FAR AS WE KICK OFF TODAY'S
TRADING SESSION ON THIS MONDAY
AS JIM THE CAMP WHO IS THE
SENIOR VP OF INVESTMENTS ARE AT
MORGAN STANLEY
JEN THANKS FOR JOINING US THIS
MORNING, STOCKS O PEDRO ARE
CERTAINLY SOX OPENING LOWER TO
KICK OFF THE REEF.
WHAT FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE IS
DRIVING SOME OF THE SENTIMENT
AND OUR COVID CONCERNS ANYWHERE
IN THE MIX HERE AS WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE DELTA VARIANT.
>> I LOOK TO PRISE AGO THE
MARKETS TO REALLY LOOK THAT
WEEKEND THAT
THE PHONE IF YOU HAVE A BIG
SELL OUT HERE WE'RE HITTING
THAT TIME PER YEAR WHICH IS
REALLY BEEN HISTORICALLY MORE
VOLATILE THAT MID JULY BEEN
MADE ARE CAREER.
JUST WANT TO LOOK LIKE
THAT SO I WAS GOING TO COME
THAT VOLATILITY WAS GOING TO
COME RIGHT
ON CUE. BUYER STEPPED RIGHT
BACK AND THAT THEY'RE STILL
ABOUT 4 AND A HALF TRILLION
DOLLARS ON THE SIDELINES AND SO
FAR IT APPEARS THAT EVERY TIME
THIS MARKET HAS EVEN APPEARED
TO GO INTO DEBT MOTOR SELLOFF
MOTOR CORRECTION
ABOUT BARS AND COME RIGHT BACK
AND WHICH IS REMARKABLE
CONSIDERING ARE WORRIED ABOUT
30 TIMES HURTING SO THE MARKETS
ARE PRETTY MUCH PRICED TO
PERFECTION IN TERMS OF AN
ECONOMIC RECOVERY. AND YOU'VE
YEAH, THE COVID NUMBERS RAMPING
BACK UP NOW THAT THE NUMBERS
ARE MORE OF MY HOUSE,
THOSE NATIONS THAT THEY ARE
ABOUT THAT STORY GET THAT BUT
WE ARE STAYING SEEING SOME
SELECTED SPOT SHUTDOWNS ACROSS
THE COUNTRY WHICH COULD HAVE
ECONOMIC IMPACT. SO I WOULD SAY
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT THIS
MARK IT IS VERY
♪
RIGHT FOR. AND THAT COULD BE 10
TO 20%. BUT SO FAR.
THE DIP BUYERS HAVE BEEN
WINNING OUT.
>> AND SO ONE OF THE RISKS AND
I THINK YOU'RE SO CORRECT AND
BRING THIS UP AND THAT
THE CONCERNS EARLY IN THE
PANDEMIC LAST YEAR IN MARCH
APRIL WAS THAT WE WOULD SEE
AN OVERWHELMED HOT HOSPITAL AND
HEALTH CARE SYSTEM MORE BROADLY
THAT WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE AMOUNT OF INFECTIONS
COVID CASES HOSPITALIZATIONS
AND EVEN THE MORTALITY THAT WE
HAD SEEN COME A AND SO WITH
THAT
IN MIND FAST FORWARD TO THIS
PART OF 2021 NOW WHERE WE DO
A PART OF THE MAJORITY PART OF
THE POPULATION THAT IS A SEAT
RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF
THE VACCINES AVAILABLE
AND THEN ADDITIONALLY YOU HAVE
THEIR REOPENING EFFORTS THAT
HAVE RAMPED UP SO
WITH THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT
THAT WE FIND OURSELVES IN RIGHT
NOW WHAT IS THE BIGGEST
HEADWIND RISK THAT WE SHOULD BE
CONTINUING TO MONITOR.
>> AND THE BIGGEST HEADWIND
RISK IS REALLY
THE VALUATION IF WE DON'T KNOW
WHAT THE SPOTS THAT YOU KNOW IF
YOU'RE GOING TO METASTASIZE
INTO WE REALLY DOWN AND I
THINK THERE'S A BIG PUSH BACK
AND IN SELECTED AREAS.
>> AGAINST THOUGH SHOULD BE OUT
AND WHETHER THEY REALLY WORK IN
THE ROOM.
THAT BEING
SAID THEY DON'T SEEM TO HAVE A
GRIP ON THIS YEAH IN EUROPE,
THERE'S A MAJOR ISSUE SO WE
DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT'S GOING TO
LOOK LIKE IF YOU LISTEN TO
RIGHT THERE. WE ASK THAT PEOPLE
ARE STILL FLYING THEY ARE NOT
CANCELING THEIR FLIGHTS THEIR
TRAVEL PLANS ARE INTACT AND
THERE'S A LOT OF
AREAS THAT HEADS HAVE
THREATENED TO SHUT DOWN, BUT
HAVEN'T DONE IT YET SO THERE'S
A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY. ONE THING WE
KNOW WHAT THE STOCK MARKET IS
THAT DOESN'T LIKE UNCERTAINTY
SO THAT
UNCERTAINTY ITSELF, GOOD CAUSE
PROBLEMS AND THEN YOU LOOK AT
THE 10 YEAR WHICH IS SITTING
IN ONE POINT TO 6% DOWN FROM
NEARLY ONE POINT PERCENT AND
YOU'VE GOT TO WONDER WHAT THE
BOND MARKET STEALING I THINK
THE BOND MARKET IS TELLING YOU
THAT THERE COULD BE A SLOW DOWN
AND SO THE ECONOMIC REPORTS
THAT WE'VE SEEN OUT HAVE
BEEN UNDER WARMING SOME OF THE
GROWTH WE SAW IN THE FIRST AND
2ND QUARTER IS STARTING TO
TAPER A LITTLE BIT IN
TERMS OF JUST THE THE RATE OF
ACCELERATION SO THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS TOO ABOUT THE PACE
AND THE DURABILITY OF
THE SECOND I REGRET RECOVERY
FINALLY WE HAVE SOME CONCERNS
STILL OUT THERE ABOUT
INFLATION. I THINK THOSE
CONCERNS WILL DIE DOWN AND THEN
THE BOND MARKETS CERTAINLY
TAYLOR YOU THAT, BUT THERE ARE
THOSE CONCERNS
OUT THERE.
>> I CAN DO OR EXCUSE ME, I'M
SORRY CAN IS MY CO
ANCHOR JIM.
>> WE'VE JUST SEEN THE DOW
TURNED POSITIVE THE S AND P 500
HAS TURNED POSITIVE AS WELL
RIGHT NOW THE DOW LOOKS LIKE
IT'S JUST ABOUT 5 POINTS
OFF OF A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH AND
SO CONTINUING TO KEEP THIS IN
MIND AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE'RE
JUST ABOUT TO HIT A NEW
ALL-TIME HIGH. ON THE DOW UP BY
ABOUT
ONE-TENTH OF PERCENT WE SHOULD
HAVE HAD THAT JUST CROSS RIGHT
NOW AT 35,097 AND SO WITH ALL
THAT
IN MIND. COMING INTO TODAY'S
ACTIVITY AND THEN EVEN LOOKING
OUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
EARNING SEASON WE'VE GOT
A HOST OF HOUSEHOLD NAMES THAT
ARE SET TO REPORT THIS WEEK
WHAT MOST NOTABLY WILL YOU BE
WATCHING FOR WHETHER IT BE FROM
SOME OF THE BIG TECH NAMES OR
FROM THE SORE FROM SOME OF THE
MORE CONSUMERS. BASE NAMES I
THINK OF COMPANIES LIKE
STARBUCKS, EVEN THAT ARE GOING
TO BE REPORTING AND WHAT WE
SHOULD BE EXPECTING GOING
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS
EARNINGS SEASON.
>> I THINK THAT'S A GREAT
QUESTION BECAUSE I THINK WE'VE
ASKED ME TO LOOK FOR NOW NOW
THAT WE'RE SITTING IN THE
MARKET 30 TIMES
TRAILING EARNINGS IS LOOK FOR
COMPANIES THAT HAVE
CONSISTENTLY DELIVER GO LOOK
FOR THE BIG SWING PROPERTIES
THAT HAPPEN A LOT OF
VARIABILITY IN THERE AND LOOK
FOR COMPANIES
THAT HAVE CONSISTENT
PROFITABILITY CONSISTENT
REVENUES THAT CAN WEATHER ANY
ECONOMIC STORM AND THOSE ARE
THE COMPANIES THEY REALLY ARE
PAYING OFF. WELL RIGHT NOW THE
MARKET
IS REAL A LITTLE BIT OFF OF
THIS MORNING LOWS IN AND WHAT
YOU SAID WAS LEADING TO REPORT
THIS MORNING. FINANCIALS
MATERIALS ENERGY THOSE ARE
ECONOMIC RECOVERY THINGS THEY
HAVEN'T DONE AS WELL OVER
THE LAST WEEK-IN AND WHAT WE'RE
SEEING A LOT IN THIS MARKET IS
ROTATION ARE ON THE SERVERS
LIKE IT GOT
ON THE SURFACE IT EVERYTHING
LOOKS FINE AND 108 YOU HAVE A
LOT OF TURNING ALL YEAR
YOU HAD THE KEY THOSE RANKED
HIGH STARTS REALLY FINALLY
RECOVERED HERE OVER THE LAST
2 MINDS. WELL, THE FINANCIALS
MATERIALS AND INDUSTRIALS TOOK
A BREATHER NOW THOSE ARE REALLY
SO THERE'S A LOT OF ROTATION
UNDER THE SURFACE AND I THINK
YOU'LL SEE INTEREST RATES START
TO TRACK. AND
IF SO A NATURAL MATERIALS AND
JUST FOR A
FEW DO ALL RIGHT, BUT I STILL
SAY FOCUS ON THOSE COMPANIES
THAT HAVE
QUALITY EARNINGS THAT DELIVER
OUR REVENUES AND EARNINGS
QUARTER AND QUARTER. MENTIONED
A
COUPLE OVER. SOME OF THE
CONSUMER STAPLES COMPANIES THAT
HAVE CONSISTENT EARNINGS
REPORTS ARE GOING
TO LOOK THERE ARE MOVING
FORWARD, I THINK PLAYING IT IN
THAT AND IN THAT WAY YOU'RE
GOING TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE FAIRWAY.
>> ADDITIONALLY HERE AS WE'RE
TAKING A LOOK AT THE COMPANIES
THAT ARE REPORTING EARNINGS
THIS WEEK JUST THEY'RE KIND OF
RATTLE OFF A FEW OF THESE NAMES
WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO BE HUGE
DAY WITH NO BOEING.
EXCUSE ME SPOTIFY BOEING
MCDONALD'S PFIZER
FACEBOOK FORWARD.
>> BUT THEN ADDITIONALLY AS WE
GO ON THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK OF COURSE AMAZON GOING
TO BE IN FOCUS ON THURSDAY AS
WELL AND OF COURSE TUESDAY IS
HUGE TOMORROW IN EVEN LATER
TODAY, THE TOWN OF ACTIVITY
A GIVEN ALL OF WHAT WE'RE
TRACKING ON THE EARNINGS FRONT.
WE ALSO HAVE THE FED THAT'S
GOING TO BE IN PLAY THIS WEEK
JIM, WHAT DOES THAT ENTER THE
TOWN THAT YOU EXPECT THE FED TO
STRIKE.
>> THE FED HAS MADE IT VERY
CLEAR THAT THEY DON'T WANT TO
DO ANYTHING ANY TIME SOON AND
CERTAINLY THEY'RE
NOT ENOUGH. THE PRESSURE TO DO
THAT WITH THE 10 YEAR TREASURY
YIELD OF ONE AND A QUARTER SET
THESE EARNINGS ARE GOING TO
BE STRONG EARNINGS ARE GOING TO
BE STRONG FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3
QUARTERS AND THEY'RE PROBABLY
GOING TO BE WELL AHEAD
OF EXPECTATIONS. WE'VE SEEN
QUARTER AFTER GUIDANCE REALLY
BE PRETTY STRONG FROM THESE
CORPORATIONS WORK. WELL I THINK
THE GUIDANCE GOING TO BE REALLY
STRONG I THREW OUT A
PARTICULARLY THE COMPANY YOU
JUST REFERENCED THAT ARE GOING
TO BE REPORTING THIS WEEKEND.
A LOT VERY SOLID COMPANIES THE
KIND OF COMPANIES I WAS JUST
TALKING ABOUT THAT ARE GOING TO
BE REPORTING THIS WEEK. I DON'T
THINK
HAS ANY INTEREST IN RAISING
RATES ANY TIME SOON BEAR
FOR THIS NATION IS A BIG PART
OF THEIR MANDATE.
NOW IS WELL AND WE STILL HAVE A
WAY TO MAKE PEOPLE ARE THAT ARE
NOT WORKING EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
A LOT OF JOBS AVAILABLE
OUT THERE IN PART IT IS BECAUSE
THEY'RE RECEIVING STIMULUS
CHECKS THAT SAID WE NEED TO GET
THOSE PEOPLE BACK TO WORK AND I
DON'T THINK IF THAT IS REALLY
EAGER TO DO ANYTHING AT ALL
UNTIL WE SEE MORE PEOPLE
WORKING AND I DO BELIEVE THAT
THEY THINK INFLATION NUMBERS
ARE TRANSITORY AGAIN THIS POINT
OUT OF
OUR MARKET.
>> JIM WE'VE GOT TO LEAVE
THINGS THERE ON THE DAY
EXCELLENT CONTACTS IN
PERSPECTIVE COMING INTO A BIG
WEEK FOR EARNINGS AN