ACTIVITY FOR MORE ON THE
MARKETS HERE WE'RE JOINED BY
CRAIG ERLAM WHO IS THE SENIOR
MARKET ANALYST OVER
AT OANDA THANKS SO MUCH FOR
JOINING US THIS
MORNING, CRAIG. WE'VE GOT TO
DIVE RIGHT IN ON FRIDAY AND
WHAT HAPPENED THERE CAN YOU
WALK US THROUGH HOW INVESTORS
REACTED ONCE THE NEWS OF CRIME
VARIANT HIT.
>> WELL I THINK IT WAS A BIT OF
PANIC WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT
WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT A LOT
OF DIFFERENT RISKS FOR THESE
MARKETS KNOW OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MONTHS. UNNAMED FLAY
SHUN THEN INTEREST RATES HIKES
SEEMS TO HAVE GONE RIGHT TO THE
TOP OF THE
LIST AND COVID JUST SEEM TO
SLIP DON'T THINK IT WAS MAYBE A
BIT OF COMPLACENCY IN THE
MARKETS. AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEW BAG YOU CAN SEE IT'S A
VERY OF ITS UGLY HEADS AND
ABOUT 2 POTENTIALLY POSE A RISK
TO THE ECONOMY. I DON'T THINK
IT WAS FORGOTTEN, BUT IT WAS
CERTAINLY FED ON THE LIST THAN
IT'S BEEN FOR THE LAST 18
MONTHS. SO WHEN WE SAW NEWS OF
THE IN COMBATING. AND THAT WAS
TOLL CAN SPECULATION THAT
ABOUT IS IT GOING TO BE
VACCINE. RESISTANT THAT'S THE
BIGGEST THING FOX NEWS A
STUNNING IS IS THAT
GAME CHANGER AS FAR AS THE
MARKETS AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
IS CONCERNED BUT ALSO IS IT
MORE TRANSMISSIBLE IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC
WITH POWS THREATS FROM
DISTRACTIONS AND LOCKDOWNS AND
WHICH WE'RE ALREADY STARTING
SET UP ONCE AGAIN IN YOUR EVEN
WITHOUT
THE NOTHING INITIALS THING WE
SAW WAS PANIC THIS NEEDS A PART
OF THE ACTION OF WE DON'T KNOW
ENOUGH TO BE CONFIDENCE
GOING INTO THE NEXT FEW WEEKS
AT A TIME WHEN COVID IS ALREADY
BECOMING MORE OF A PROBLEM I
THINK PROBABLY THING TRADE
BECAUSE THE U.S. THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY ON THURSDAY, A LOT OF
PEOPLE HAVE EXTENDED OUT INTO
THE WEEKEND PROBABLY HAD A
FACTOR IN
THAT STATE.
>> CERTAINLY AND I WAS JUST
ABOUT TO ASK YOU WHAT A
SCENARIO, ESPECIALLY A LOW
VOLUME SCENARIO WOULD HAVE
MEANT YOU KIND OF HIT ON THAT A
MOMENT AGO, BUT PARTICULARLY I
GUESS WHAT WILL THE MARKETS BE
LOOKING TOWARDS TO SIGNAL
WHETHER OR NOT
THEY SHOULD CONTINUE SELLING
OFF OF THIS OR IF THEIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERTED
EFFORT LIKE WE'RE SEEING THE
FUTURES RIGHT NOW TO TRY AND
REAL BACK SOME OF THOSE LEVELS
THAT WE'VE SEEN PRIOR TO
FRIDAY'S PRECIPITOUS DROP.
>> SO THE I THINK MOOKIE
MENTALITY IS STILL
IN THIS BY THAT THAT SPACE
STILL THINGS ALWAYS GOING TO BE
INTEREST ON THE STEPS AND
NOTHING ELSE WHAT WE'RE REALLY
SEEING TO DIE.
I THINK THE OTHER THING THAT WE
FIND THAT INTO THE CELL PHONE
FRIDAY WAS THE FUNDING FRIDAY
WE'VE DONE IS WE HAD 2 DAYS
WHEN THE MARKETS
WERE CLOSED. WHEN THE LAW COULD
COME OUT THAT WOULD BE NEGATIVE
AND INSTEAD WHAT WE SAW OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH US EVER SO
SLIGHTLY POST OF DID THEY
STAY THE SYMPTOMS COULD BE
RELATIVELY MILD IN COMPARISON
EVEN IF IT IS MORE
TRANSMISSIBLE NOW THE WHO
SUGGESTED THAT THEY
TRANSMISSIBILITY IS POTENTIALLY
A BIG PROBLEM, BUT TO FOLLOW
THE SOCIAL MAYBE SLIGHTLY
POSTED NEWS OF THE WEEKEND IS
HELPING ZONE AS WELL BUT WE
HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING TOO
NEGATIVE WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS I THINK INVESTORS WILL
PROCEED WITH CAUTION BUT I
THINK IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS
WHEN WE DO SEE THESE BIG
SELLOFFS AS WE'VE SEEN SO MANY
TIMES THAT
THE LAST WELL WINTER SO IT'S
ALWAYS UP ITS RIGHT TO BUY
THESE DIPS UNTIL SOME OF THIS
NEGATIVE NEW SOLIDIFIES AND
BECOME SOMETHING MORE TROUBLING
AND I THINK THOSE DIPS ARE
GOING TO BE CAN CONTINUE TO
LOOK AT TRYING TO BUT WHAT THAT
MEANS IS THESE MARKETS ARE
GOING TO REMAIN ELEVATED.
LOOK AT THE MAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO
THESE NEW JET REACTIONS
OFFICIAL ON NEGATIVE COVID
RELATED NEWS.
>> LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME OF THE
SECTORS THAT GOT HIT THE
HARDEST.
>> ON THAT AIRLINES TRAVEL
INDUSTRY NAMES
AS WELL YOU KNOW HOW WOULD YOU
BE KIND OF PLAYING THAT
PARTICULAR SECTOR IN THAT AREA
OF THE MARKET KNOWING THAT
THERE'S A LOT OF RISK IT'S
ALREADY AT PLAY, ESPECIALLY.
EVEN IF THEY ARE SEEING SOME OF
THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL THAT PERHAPS
EVEN GETS LIMITED OR ADJUSTED.
AND THEY ARE ALREADY ABOUT
BATTLING SOME OF THE LABOR THE
ISSUES AS WELL WITHIN THAT
INDUSTRY TO SO MANY DIFFERENT
HEADWINDS THAT
ARE PERSISTING, YOU KNOW SHOULD
THEY BE MORE WORRIED GOING
FORWARD AND WHAT DO YOU IMAGINE
THAT THAT IMPACT MY BAIT.
>> YEAH, I BE APPROACHING
THINGS THAT TROUBLES TALKS WITH
EXTREME CAUTION.
>> AS YOU SAY AND THE OTHER
IMPORTANT TIME OF YEAR AS FAR
AS MANY OF THESE
CONSENT WE'VE SEEN WHAT THE
REACTION OF GOLDMAN SACHS THESE
OUTBREAKS 12 MONTHS AGO 18
MONTHS AGO OUTBREAKS HAPPENED.
GOLDMANS
PROCEED WITH CAUTION THEMSELVES
THEY WERE RELUCTANT TO IMPOSE
TRAVEL BANS. THEY WERE
LOOKED INTO TO OVERREACT TO THE
SITUATION NOW WISHING QUITE
THE OPPOSITE. ON FRIDAY
EVENING. WE WAS IN THE UK WAS
IMPOSING TROUBLE BONES AND SOFT
AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES OF
THE COUNTRIES AS WELL WE'RE
VERY MUCH DURING THE SAME THING
IT SEEMS TO BE THE QUICKER YOU
CAN RESPOND THE MOST POSSIBLE
YOU LOOK IN THE MALL AHEAD
YOU'LL HAVING FOR THE
FOR POTENTIALLY.
THE WARNING INVOLVING SITUATION
THAT'S OBVIOUSLY GOING TO BE
EXTREMELY NEGATIVE FUND FOR
MANY OF THESE TRAVEL RELATED
STOCKS OBVIOUSLY WE LOOK AT
SOME HIGHLIGHT. LIKE AUSTRIA
NOW WHICH IS GOING TO FULL OF
TOWN FOR A FEW WEEKS ELSE AT
LEAST A FEW WEEKS EVEN IF THEY
SAY IT MOST BECAUSE WE KNOW HOW
THE SITUATIONS INVOLVE GEMINI
IS A RISK
WELL, THE COUNTRIES AS WELL,
IT'S ONLY A MATTER OF TIME
BEFORE WE START SEE TRAVEL
RESTRICTIONS
BEING IMPOSED ALL OF THE
COUNTRIES AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
IF WE DO SEE IT
FOR THE NEW APPEARING OF OF
COURSE OF WHAT HE'S ALWAYS
GOING TO BE A.
TRACK CHALLENGING FEW THING YET
THEY THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY IS ONE
WHICH I WOULD APPROACH WITH
EXTREME CAUTION.
>> AND SO YOU KNOW ANY OF OUR
VIEWERS WOULD BE RIGHT TO ASK
THEMSELVES. THE QUESTION OF
WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE THIS
TYPE OF MARKET REACTION ON
EVERY NEW VARIANCE ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THAT THERE BEEN SO
MUCH DISCUSSION FROM THE HEALTH
CARE
INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE THAT THIS
WOULD BE MORE OF AN ENDEMIC
APPROACH WHERE THERE WOULD BE
NEW VARIANTS THAT ONE THAT
THAT WOULD SOMEHOW COME AS TIME
WENT ALONG. AND WE WOULD HAVE
TO UNDERSTAND ONCE AGAIN
WHERE CERTAIN VACCINES WERE
EFFICACIOUS WHERE THEY REMAINED
EFFECTIVE AGAINST THESE NEW
VARIANTS OR WHERE WE NEED TO
SEE CONTINUED BOOSTER SHOTS
SIMILAR TO THE RESPONSE TO THE
FLU THAT
WE HAVE EVERY SINGLE YEAR WHERE
THERE'S A NEW
FLU VACCINE. AND PEOPLE DECIDE
WHETHER OR NOT THEY WANT TO GET
VACCINATED OR NOT THIS OF
COURSE FAR DIFFERENT BECAUSE WE
ARE STILL NAVIGATING OUT OF
A PANDEMIC BUT IN THIS CASE,
YOU KNOW WHAT SHOULD THE
MARKETS KIND OF BE WATCHING ON
TOO IN THOSE MOMENTS WHERE WE
DO SEE
NEW VARIANTS COME FORWARD
KNOWING THAT WE'RE GOING TO BE
IN A BOOSTER TYPE OF SCENARIO
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
>> SO I THINK I THINK AT LEAST
IN THE U.S. OF A STROKE AND IS
GOING TO BE SIGNIFICANT
REACTIONS TO NEW BAGGINS THING
THAT INVESTORS FEAR MORE THAN
ANYTHING IT SEEMS IS THE
UNKNOWN AND ONE THING THAT A
NEW VARIANT OF PAVING PRODUCES
IT'S A LOT OF UNKNOWNS BECAUSE
THEY NEED TO BE NEGATIVE.
IT COULD BE IT COULD NOT
BE SHOEBOX WHAT IT MEANS IS WE
HAVE TO WAIT DAYS IF NOT WEEKS
FOR ONCE ON THE SITUATION IF
THE YOUNG SAYS A NEGATIVE AND
THEN I DO THINK WE WILL SEE UP
THEY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ABOUT
THE MARKETS I THINK PFIZER
BOTH SIDES INTERESTING THINGS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 3
OR 4 DAYS WHICH IS JUST RIGHT
WHICH IS TRYING TO EASE
PEOPLE'S MEASURE THINGS IOT
THE FALL. BUT A SITUATION WHERE
18 MONTHS AGO WHICH WAS 5 SAID
ON FRIDAY IN THE EVENT OF AN
EVENT AND THE VACCINE COULD BE
AVAILABLE WITHIN THE HOME TO
FACE
NOT EXTREMELY A PROMISING RUN
ONCE IT'S AVAILABLE NEEDS TO BE
DISTRIBUTED THAN ANYTHING TO
GET AROUND TO ALL THE RIGHT
PLACES SECRETLY LOOKING WELL
FOR 5 MONTHS BEFORE WE
START SAY, WE'RE BACK IN A
SITUATION WHERE WE ARE NOW VERY
ENCOURAGING PETS WAITING WILL
TO GO BUT IF YOU'RE AN INVESTOR
POTENTIALLY VERY CONCERNING IT
HAS A BIG IMPACT ON
ECONOMIC SO I DO THINK WE'RE
GOING TO SEE SENSE THAT I THINK
THAT TOM OF YEMEN SAYS WELL
THIS IS A TIME WHEN WE DO SAY A
MORE ABILITY FOR IT TO SPREAD
QUITE RAPIDLY BECAUSE PEOPLE
ARE IN THE HOMES A LOT MORE TO
COME RIGHT AND A
LOT MORE IN TIGHT CONFINED
SPACES IF THIS WAS MAY JUNE
JULY MAYBE WE'LL SEE QUITE SUCH
A SIGNIFICAN