>> WELCOME BACK TO CHEDDAR
BUSINESS DESPITE A NUMBER
OF GEOPOLITICAL ISSUES LIKE
TENSIONS WITH IRAN AND CHINA
THE US ECONOMY CONTINUES TO
SHOW UP UNEXPECTEDLY POSITIVE
DATA IN A DISGUISE IS RYAN
PAYNE
PRESIDENT PAIN CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT RYAN ALL GREAT TO
HAVE YOU ON THE SHOW I LOOK 5
WEEKS AGO WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
RECESSIONS. YES, THE CENTRAL
FOR RECESSION. AND NOW WE'RE
FLIRTING WITH RECORD.
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS
WHAT CHANGE. WHAT A WEEK WHAT A
DIFFERENCE A WEEK MAKES RIGHT.
I MEAN NOT MUCH HAS REALLY
CHANGED IF YOU LOOK AT THE
ECONOMIC IT HAS BEEN PRETTY
SOLID THE WHOLE WAY THROUGH THE
LAST WEEK WE START TO SEE
SIGNS INFLATION. AND I THINK
THAT'S SOMETHING WE HAVEN'T
SEEN A LONG TIME TO GET CORE
INFLATION FOR AUGUST YEAR OVER
YEAR, IT'S THE BIGGEST MOVE UP
SINCE
2008 THAT'S A PRETTY
SIGNIFICANT MOVE IN INFLATION
AND INFLATION IS INDICATIVE OF
THE FACT THAT THE ECONOMY IS
ACTUALLY HEATING UP IN THE
STATE'S ECONOMY ASKED. WELL I
AGREE WITH ME AFTER BEEN SAYING
ALL YEAR. YOU KNOW WE'RE IN A
BULL MARKET ECONOMY, STRONG AT
THE START TO SEE PEOPLE COME ON
BOARD OF
THAT SCENE.
>> I GUESS ID OUT WHAT'S
CAUSING THE UPTICK
IN INFLATION.
>> I THINK CORE INFLATION
COMING LAST WEEK WAS WE ALSO
SAW THAT THE ICE AND SERVICE
INDEX WHICH MEMBER A SERVICE
ECONOMY AND TALK ABOUT
MANUFACTURING, IT'S NOT THAT
BIG A DEAL IN A BIGGER THAN
EXPECTED.
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS HE MET THE
LOWEST LEVEL IN 5 YEARS AND YOU
JUST GETTING SUCH STRONG GATE
OUT THERE ABOUT HOW GOOD THE
ECONOMY REALLY IS PERCENT.
>> HOW BIG OF A IS THIS ATTACK.
SAUDI ARABIA'S OIL SUPPLY RIGHT
HALF OF ITS DAILY OIL
OUTPUT IN WHAT CAUSED THAT
EVENTUALLY HAVE
AN INFLATION.
>> WELL THAT'S A GREAT POINT
WHERE WE SAW A 13% SPIKE
YESTERDAY IN OIL WHICH IS THE
LARGEST EVER
WHICH IS KIND OF INSANE AND
THAT'S THE BIG PART OF
INFLATION THAT ONLY SPEAKS TO
AGAIN INFLATION PROBABLY GOING
UP FOR YOUR THAT'S THAT'S A
HUGE PART OF IT.
>> ARE THERE REAL CONCERNS THAT
THAT COULD IMPACT THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY.
>> I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT IT
FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE IN
MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A CATALYST
HERE, YOU KNOW THE INFLATION
GOING UP TO ACTUALLY GET THINGS
MOVING IN WITH TRADE IN OIL
PRICES FOR US FANTASTIC, YOU
KNOW WE'RE IN NET EXPORTER OF
OIL NOW SO
THAT'S GOOD VERY GOOD FOR THE
ECONOMY HERE IN THE LAST ONE
THING THAT SURPRISED ME IN THE
LAST 48 HOURS IS THAT
THE MARKET HASN'T RESPONDED
NEGATIVELY JAZZ AND TRUMP'S
LOCKED AND LOADED COMMENTARY
ABOUT THE IDEA OF POTENTIALLY
HAVING A SKIRMISH WITH THE LAW
DEFENDING SAUDI ARABIA. WHY DO
THINK THE MARKET FOR ABOUT ALL.
WELL BECAUSE I THINK IN CONTEXT
OF EVERYTHING ELSE IT'S IT'S
NOT THAT BIG A DEAL ALL RIGHT
AT THE END OF
THE DAY. AGAIN IT'S VERY GOOD
FOR OUR OIL COMPANY IS A MINUTE
WHICH IS THE IDEOLOGY OF OF A
WAR, THE IDEA RIGHT
MILITARY OPERATION THIS IS
UNSETTLING I THINK A LOT OF
PEOPLE IS THAT SOMETHING THAT
THE MARKETS ARE TAKEN
SERIOUSLY.
I DON'T KNOW I THINK THE
MARKET'S BEEN OVERLY TAKING
KNOW THEM THE SLOWDOWN YORK AND
OTHER PLACES IN THE GLOBE.
SO SERIOUSLY THAT I THINK
FINALLY WE'RE SEEING A LITTLE
BIT THAT SOFTENING OR THAT THAT
YOU SAW THINGS I THINK
WE'VE ALREADY HAD THAT PRICE IN
FOR A VERY LONG TIME OR AT ALL
WE'VE HEARD ALL YEAR IS EUROPE
SLOWING THE GLOBE SLOWING
RECESSION, RECESSION. AND NOW
WE'RE STARTING TO SEE THAT'S
JUST NOT COME TO FRUITION AND
THE NUMBERS ARE COMING IN
BETTER EXPECTED A FED MEETING
TOMORROW.
>> I'M NOT CONVINCED SAID THAT
THEY'RE GOING TO CUT RATES WHAT
DO YOU
THINK WOW.
>> THAT'S A BOLD STATEMENT
THAT'S BEEN PROCESSED YOU CAN
TREND SAY THE SAME THING BUT I
THINK THE POLITICAL PRESSURE TO
CUT ONE MORE TIME IS PROBABLY
PRETTY GREAT. YOU KNOW THEY
PROBABLY SHOULD AGAIN ECONOMIC
DATA STRONG YOU DON'T NEED TO
CUT INTEREST RATES THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE THE
LAST ONE THEY DON'T DO IT I'LL
BE REALLY IMPRESSED. AND YOU
CALL.
>> THAT HE NOW I GOT TO SAY,
BUT THEY STILL HAVE IT THEY'VE
GOT 3 CHANCES RIGHT BEFORE THE
END OF THE YEAR THAT GOT
TOMORROW THEY'VE ALSO GOT
UP TO OVER IN DECEMBER AND I
GUESS THE ONLY THING THAT'S
CHANGED AT LEAST IN THE
FEW WEEKS IS THAT TENSIONS
RIGHT HAVE DE-ESCALATED OF THE
IT AND WE DO EXPECT THOSE TRADE
TALKS TO HAVE.
AND YOU CUT RATES AGAIN BEFORE
THE END OF THE YEAR, BUT WHY
NOT WAIT UNTIL OCTOBER OR
DECEMBER.
>> WELL GANG BECAUSE I THINK OF
POLITICAL PRESSURE TO DO IT NOW
IF I I THINK IT'S LET'S GET IT
OUT OF THE WAY AND THEN THEY WE
CAN START RAISING INTEREST
RATES AGAIN WHAT'S
REALLY GOOD OLD ABOUT WHAT
COULD HAPPEN THAT'S BEEN
HAPPENING LATE 90'S THEY DID
TIGHTEN RESCUE TODAY, THEY
PULLED ROOTS STRETCH BACK IN
AND THEY TIGHTENED AGAIN THEY
CAN START DOING THAT AGAIN HERE
TO A PLACE THAT REALLY START TO
KICK AND IT'S VERY REALISTIC.
HOW DID YOU DIGEST THE NEWS
ABOUT THE BUDGET DEFICIT GOING
PAST TRILLION FOR THE
FIRST TIME AND WILL THE HIGHEST
SAY IN 7 YEARS.
I WAS JUST NUMB TO
IT IT'S GETTING KIND OF CRAZY
RIGHT I THINK AT SOME POINT
DOESN'T COME TO ROOST AND AGAIN
I THINK THIS GOES BACK TO
INTEREST RATES GOING UP UNTIL
INTEREST RATES GOING UP I JUST
DON'T THINK IT CAN BE AT THE
FOREFRONT BECAUSE AS AN
INVESTOR WHAT WE'RE GOING TO BE
LOOKING AT THINGS LIKE EARNINGS
GOING UP WHICH THEY PROBABLY
OUR NOMINEE IS GOING TO STAY
STRONG BUT RATES START TO
GO OUT THAT MEANS THAT THE
FINANCING THAT DEBT GOES UP
ASTRONOMICALLY THAT'S WHEN IT
BECOMES A BIG PROBLEM IN MY.
>> IS IT PLAYING OUT IN THE
STOCK MARKET MORE WHITE THINK
THAT IS.
>> BECAUSE I THINK WE'RE COMING
TO
THE REALIZATION AGAIN THAT
ECONOMIC DATA IS COMING IN
BETTER THAN
EXPECTED WE ALL BEEN THINKING
ABOUT A RECESSION FOR TOO LONG
AND HAS BEEN THE WRONG TRAIN
AND IF YOU SEE WHERE MONEY
FLOWS HAVE BEEN
ALL YEAR. THE WOMAN TAKING
MONEY OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET
HAS IS GOING UP PLOWING INTO
THE BOMBING MARKET FOR GETTING
LIKE 2, 3%, INTEREST RATES
WHICH IS THAT IT WILL RETURN ON
YOUR MONEY AND I THINK IT'S
KIND OF A PAUSE REFLECT HERE,
THIS IS ONE SMALL GEOPOLITICAL
ISSUE BUT THAT BIGGER PICTURE
IS MOST ECONOMIES AROUND THE
WORLD DOING WELL GLOBAL GROWTH
GOING UP THE SHIRT.
>> I MEAN CERTAINLY
MAJOR CONCERNS ABOUT A
RECESSION IN GERMANY RIGHT
POTENTIALLY IN THE UK WITH THAT
UNCERTAINTY WITH GREG'S IT,
CHINA'S GROWTH IS SLOWING AND I
THINK THAT.
I MEAN THAT WERE RISING, BUT
GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS ACTUALLY
DIDN'T MOVE THE NEEDLE.
I YOU KNOW I TO GEOPOLITICAL
CONCERNS OF THESE DAYS
CERTAINLY IN THE
PAST YEAR.
>> WELL, I THINK A LOT OF IT
TOO HAS TO DO WITH THE TRADE
DEAL BECAUSE A LOT OF WHAT'S
BEEN SLOWING YORK IS THE FACT
THAT THE US RIGHT NOW IN CHINA
BEEN
IN THIS TRADE WAR AND THAT'S
PRETTY LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND
NOW WE'RE STARTING TO SEE THAT
SOFTENED THAT'S FANTASTIC FOR
THE REST OF THAT LOW AND THAT
JUST TRUMP'S THE PUN INTENDED
WHAT'S HAPPENING OVER HERE, YOU