LET'S GO BACK TO THE MAJOR
INDEXES JOINING ME NOW IS MIKE
HANSON SVP OF RESEARCH AT
FISHER MIKE IT'S GOOD TO
HAVE YOU WITH US THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. I GUESS YOU KNOW WE'LL
TAKE IT IN STRIDE. WE DID SEE
GAINS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR
ACTION GAMES HERE.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE MARKET
THIS WEEK IN WHAT COULD
INDICATE ABOUT THE WEEK AHEAD.
>> WELL I THINK CHRISTIAN THIS
WEEK IS KIND OF CHARACTERISTIC
OF THE ENTIRE MONTH OF MAY
WHICH
WAS THAT WE HAD GREAT ECONOMIC
WE HAD HIGH INFLATION DATA WE
HAD A LOT OF NUMBERS COME
IN HIGH AND YET THE MARKETS
DIDN'T NECESSARILY DO A LOT AND
THAT'S THE SAME THING WITH BOND
YIELDS AND I THINK WHAT THAT
MEANS
IS THAT EXPECTATIONS ARE
STARTING TO CATCH UP TO
REALITY, YES, THE ECONOMIC THAT
IS GREAT BUT INVESTORS ARE
STARTING TO CATCH UP TO IT AND
WITH GLOBAL GDP STARTING TO
APPROACH KIND OF PRE PANDEMIC
LEVELS IN A VARIETY
OF PLACES. I THINK ONE OF THE
KEY QUESTIONS LOOKING AHEAD,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MONTH OF JUNE
IS WILL THESE REOPENING TRADE
REALLY CONTINUE TO PROSPER.
>> INTERESTING AS SO IT SOUNDS
LIKE MIKE BASED ON WHAT YOU'RE
SAYING THEY'RE JUST A
RISING PRICES, IT SOUNDS LIKE
YOU ARE BULLISH ON THE STOCK
MARKET HAS THIS REOPENED DOES
PICK UP IS THAT RIGHT.
>> YEAH, I THINK THAT'S RIGHT
BUT WHAT INVESTORS NEED TO DO
IS START TO BECOME REALISTIC.
EXPECTATIONS HAVE
BECOME HIGH. THE GROWTH IS
GOING TO BE FINE GLOBALLY AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE THE BULL
MARKET AT LEAST INTO THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. BUT LET'S
JUST BE REALISTIC YOUR ABOUT A
FEW THINGS FIRST OF
PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY PINNING
THEIR HOPES ON LET'S SAY THINGS
LIKE INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING IN
THE NEW BUDGET SPENDING THAT
JUST CAME OUT TODAY AT LEAST IN
PROPOSAL
THOSE THINGS CAN CERTAINLY HELP
AN ECONOMY BUT HISTORY REALLY
SHOWS THAT THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH
OF AN AFFECT LONG-TERM ON GDP,
SO WHICH YOU WANT TO DO HIS
TEMPER, YOUR EXPECTATIONS
ADDITIONALLY IF YOU LOOK AT
CHINA TODAY WHICH IS THE WORLD
OF COURSE SECOND
LARGEST ECONOMY. IT'S ALSO BEEN
KIND OF A 4 RUNNER THROUGHOUT
THE LAST YEAR IN THE SENSE THAT
IT FELL FIRST A KIND OF
RECOVERED FIRST
AND NOW IT'S RETURNING TO SORT
OF COVID PRE TREND GDP GROWTH
AND I THINK A LOT OF THE WORLD
IS GOING TO FOLLOW SUIT OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 6 TO
12 MONTHS, SO BULL MARKET, YES,
STOCKS CAN DO WELL BUT TEMPER
YOUR EXPECTATIONS, WHAT I THINK
THAT
MEANS IS DON'T NECESSARILY GO
TOWARDS THE VALUE CYCLICAL
STOCKS IN THE REOPENING STOCKS
BUT ONCE AGAIN LOOK TOWARDS
THOSE LARGE QUALITY GROWTH
STOCKS THAT WILL GROW ABOVE
GDP TREND.
>> VERY INTERESTING AND WE
SHOULD REMIND OUR VIEWERS MIGHT
BE A WINNING NOT JUST FOR THE S
AND P AND THE DOW, BUT THE
NASDAQ AS WELL.
LAST DAY OF TRADE FOR THIS WEEK
LAST GAME TRADES IN THE MONTH.
AS WELL OFFICIALLY KICKING OFF
JUNE NEXT WEEK
THE NASDAQ ACTUALLY POSTING ITS
FIRST MONTHLY LOSS IN 6 MONTHS
SO YOU TO YOUR POINT THERE MIKE
MAYBE A LITTLE BIT OF A BUYING
OPPORTUNITY THAT WE SAW THESE
PAST 30 DAYS OR SO FOR
INVESTORS TO MAYBE
MY LITTLE BIT OF THE DIP UP
WITH THE NASDAQ DOWN THIS PAST
MONTH OR SO
I AM CURIOUS I JUST IN TERMS OF
THE DATA THAT IS ON THE HORIZON
WE ARE GOING TO GET THAT JOBS
REPORT FOR MAY
ON FRIDAY AND A LOT OF
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW SOME OF
THESE RECENT NEWS 5 REPUBLICAN
STATE SET TO DO AWAY WITH THAT
EXTRA $300 A WEEK SUPPLEMENTAL
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFIT WHETHER OR
NOT THAT WILL GET PEOPLE OFF
THE SIDELINES. ALWAYS A BIG
FOCUS FOR INVESTORS WHAT DO YOU
ANTICIPATE WHEN WE GET THAT
REPORT NEXT FRIDAY.
>> I ANTICIPATE CONTINUED
VOLATILITY AND I THINK IT'S
GOING TO BE VERY REALLY
FORECAST WHAT HAPPENS FROM
THERE BUT IN TERMS OF THE
STIMULUS PAYMENTS IN SOME
STATES THEY GO AWAY AND SOME
STATES THOUGH CONTINUE AND THAT
WILL HAVE ALL SORTS OF
VARIANCE BUT WHAT MARKETS
REALLY TEND TO PRICE AND IS NOT
NECESSARILY WHAT HAPPENS MONTH
TO MONTH. BUT WHAT THE LARGE
TRANS
LOOK LIKE AND THE LARGE TRENDS
ARE BULLISH RIGHT NOW FOR
EMPLOYMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO TO UNEMPLOYMENT WILL
CONTINUE TO COME DOWN OVER THE
COURSE THE
NEXT MONTHS JOBS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OPEN AND THEY WILL BE
FILLED. IT'S JUST GOING TO
HAPPEN IN FITS AND STARTS AND
OVER THE COURSE OF THE SUMMER
THERE'S GOING TO BE SHORTAGES
OF LABOR, PARTICULARLY PLACES
LIKE HOSPITALITY, YOU CAN
ANTICIPATE THAT BUT LOOK FOR
VOLATILITY IN ALL OF THAT.
>> WHAT ABOUT THESE BEAMS
STOCKS AT OUR MARKET GUESS
YESTERDAY AT THE SAME TIME WAS
SAYING, BUT WE BOUGHT AMC HAS
TO RE OPEN TRADE
AND WE A PRETTY HEFTY PROFIT
FELL YESTERDAY AS THE REDDIT
FAVOR TRY TO PICK UP STEAM
AGAIN ARE THESE MEAN STOCKS
ONES THAT YOU'RE PLAYING IT.
>> FOR ME CERTAINLY THIS IS A
MOMENT FOR DISCIPLINE
IN ITS I'M WHEN THINGS ARE
LOOKING GOOD. BUT OPTIMISM IS
ALSO HIGH YOU KNOW DISCIPLINE
IS ALWAYS 2 SIDES OF A COIN AND
INVESTING WHEN PEOPLE ARE FAR
TOO PESSIMISTIC THAT'S THE TIME
TO BE A LITTLE MORE OPTIMISTIC,
BUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE OPTIMISTIC
THAT'S WHERE YOU WANT TO KEEP
YOUR DISCIPLINE MAKE SURE
YOU'RE PARTICIPATING IN THE
STOCK MARKET BECAUSE IT'S STILL
GOING TO HAVE SOME GREAT GAMES
AHEAD OF IT
I THINK BUT YOU DON'T WANT TO
GET OVEREXTENDED IF YOU'RE
GOING TO DO THE SPECULATION
THING AND AMC'S A GREAT EXAMPLE
BECAUSE
NC IS A MOVIE THEATER COMPANY
WITH ALL OF THIS ATTENTION TO
IT. IN FACT YESTERDAY IF I'M
REMEMBERING CORRECTLY IT WAS
TRADED MORE THAN ANY OTHER
STOCK ON THE MARKET THAT IS
INDICATIVE OF HUGE SPECULATION
AND FOR THAT THE DISCIPLINE
INVESTOR THAT'S LOOKING A
LITTLE BIT FARTHER AHEAD THAT'S
NOT NECESSARILY SOMETHING THAT
CAN FIT INTO THE FRAMEWORK, BUT
IF YOU WANT TO SPECULATE.
NOW IS THE TIME FOR SPECULATION
LOT OF PEOPLE ARE DOING.
>> I LOOK BIDEN UNVEILING HIS
6 BILLION DOLLAR BUDGET PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WE'RE IN
TO SEE HATING AS A MEANS TO
FUND BOTH THAT INFRASTRUCTURE
PLAN AS WELL AS THE AMERICAN
FAMILIES PLAN, NOT A LOT OF
MAJOR MOVES IN THE STOCK MARKET
IN THE WAKE OF THAT BUT WHAT IS
YOUR EXPECTATION MIGHT I MEAN
WE COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE TRILLIONS. MORE STIMULUS
DOLLARS ON THE FISCAL SIDE
ENTER THIS ECONOMY
AND BY ALL MEASURES ANY NOW
WOULD HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT,
BUT IT STILL IS A LITTLE BIT
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT THAT'S
GOING TO HAPPEN EVEN THOUGH THE
DEMOCRATS COULD TRY TO USE THAT
BUDGET RECONCILIATION. I
MEASURE WHAT ARE YOU
FORECASTING AND WHAT WOULD BE
THE IMPACT.
>> WELL I THINK YOU'RE
ABSOLUTELY RIGHT CHRIS AND BUT
I THINK THIS IS THE TIME WE GOT
A LOOK AT THE STRUCTURE OF THE
MEAN WHERE WE ARE
TODAY IS THAT THE HONEYMOON
PERIOD FOR THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION TRULY IS ENDING
AND THAT'S TYPICAL FOR ANY
PRESIDENT THAT'S NOT UNIQUE TO
ANY
OF THEM. YOU CAN SEE THIS JUST
IN THE DAY TODAY NEWSFLOW
GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS
PARTICULARLY OIL IN THE
MIDDLE EAST TALK ABOUT
INFLATION, IT'S STARTING TO
MUDDY THE WATERS A BIT IN TERMS
OF ALL THE TALK ABOUT
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING THE
BUDGET PACKAGE THAT JUST CAME
OUT TODAY. MY EXPECTATION IS
THAT YESTERDAY TO GET A LOT
MORE SPENDING YOU MAY EVEN GET
SOME TAX INCREASES BUT IT'S
GOING TO BE WALKED BACK FROM
THE VERY HIGH EXPECTATIONS
THAT WERE INITIALLY PUT DOWN I
THINK THAT'S TRUE FOR A COUPLE
REASONS ONE JUST AS THESE
THINGS CONTINUE TO PLAY OUT
THEY TEND TO GET A NEGOTIATED
DOWN IN
2 DIFFERENT THINGS BUT WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT NOW LATE SUMMER
EARLY FALL INTO NEXT YEAR
CENTRIST DEMOCRATS PARTICULARLY
IN THE HOUSE ARE GOING TO HAVE
TO START THINKING ABOUT THOSE
MIDTERM ELECTIONS, PARTICULARLY
IN LIGHT OF THE FACT
HOUSE DEMOCRATS LOSE RELATIVE
SEATS JUST BECAUSE OF THE
CENSUS ALONE SO THEY MADE ME
FEEL THEY NEED TO MODERATE A
BIT HEADING INTO THOSE MIDTERM
ELECTIONS AND I THINK THAT'S
A REALITY.
>> AND CERTAINLY AT PRESIDENT
BIDEN HAS TALKED BIPARTISANSHIP
AND BEING A MODERATE AND TRY TO
GET SOMETHING DOWN THE LINE
WE'VE ALREADY
SEEN HIS 2.3 TRILLION DOLLAR
INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN COME DOWN
TO ONE 0.7 TRILLION DOLLARS
TO YOUR POINT THERE MIKE MY
QUESTION WOULD BE FOR INVESTORS
TRYING TO NAVIGATE THESE WATERS
IF WE DO SEE TAXES RISE AT
LEAST ON CAPITAL GAINS WITH
WILL THAT CAUSE A CATASTROPHIC
AS SELL OFF TOWARD THE END OF
THE YEAR PEOPLE TRYING TO
I KEEP SOME OF THEIR GAINS IN
THIS MARKET.
>> YEAH, I HAVE TO TELL YOU I
REALLY DON'T THINK SO THERE'S A
LONG HISTORY OF LOOKING AT TAX
INCREASES AND CUTS IN THE
UNITED STATES AND YOU CAN
ACTUALLY TAKE THAT ANALYSIS
GLOBALLY AND THEY TEND TO
HAVE COUNTERINTUITIVE THE
CAPITAL GAINS TAX IS NO
DIFFERENT I THINK THE REASON
FOR THAT IS WHEN YOU'RE
THINKING ABOUT ANY OF THIS
SPENDING OR ANY OF
THESE TAXES TIMING IS KEY
MARKETS DIGEST NEWS RATHER
QUICKLY AND SO IF YOU TAKE
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING FOR
EXAMPLE, EVEN ANYTHING THAT'S
PASSED TODAY PROBABLY DOESN'T
BECOME READY TO ACTUALLY BE
ACTED UPON AND THE MONEY
GETTING INTO
THE SYSTEM. 4 YEARS INTO THE
FUTURE THAT GIVES MARKETS A LOT
OF TIME TO ADJUST SAME FEATURE
WITH TAXES. IF A TAX RISES ON
THE HORIZON, IT WON'T GO INTO
EFFECT FOR A WHILE PEOPLE HAVE
TIME TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS
THEY WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS BUT
WHEN THERE'S TIME TO ADAPT
MARKETS CAN USUALLY DIGEST