ME NOW IS MARK FLEMING CHIEF
ECONOMIST AT FIRST MARK IT'S
GOOD TO SEE YOU THIS AFTERNOON.
WHAT THESE FIGURES TELL US
ABOUT THE STATE OF THE U.S.
HOUSING MARKET.
>> WELL, I KNOW EXISTING HOME
SALES IS DOWN AS YOU SAID THIS
IS THE 3RD STRAIGHT UP AT
THE CLOCK, I'M BUT EVEN AT THE
LEVEL OF THEIR TO TODAY.
IT'S THE BEST APRIL 4TH BEST
APRIL IN
15 YEARS SO, AND NO MATTER HOW
SALES ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH.
YOU MENTIONED INVENTORY AND
RISING PRICES THAT'S REALLY THE
STORY
HERE IS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF
DAYS IT TOOK SOME 17 80% OF ALL
HOMES FOR SALE IN APRIL WERE
SOLD IN LESS THAN 30 DAYS.
IT'S JUST REALLY REALLY HOT.
IT'S JUST NOT ENOUGH SUPPLY
RELATIVE TO DEMAND
OUT THERE.
>> AND I THINK THAT'S A BIG
QUESTION EVEN BEFORE THIS
PANDEMIC THERE WERE SUPPLY
ISSUES THERE WHICH IS NOT
ENOUGH INVENTORY OUT THERE AND
CERTAINLY THE MADE
THAT SITUATION WORSE IS THERE
ANY INDICATION DOWN THE ROAD
THAT THAT SITUATION MIGHT
CHANGE.
>> I MEAN THIS IS THE STORY OF
THE HOUSING MARKET OVER NOT
JUST THE
PANDEMIC AIR. BUT THE YEAR
PRIOR AS YOU MENTIONED, AND
IT'S NOT GOING TO CHANGE WE
HAVE NOT BUILT ENOUGH
HOMES IN THIS COUNTRY TO
SHELTER EVERYONE WHO WANTS
SOUNDS WHETHER RENTING OR FOR
THE
LAST DECADE THE NEW BILL MARKET
IS ONLY ABOUT 10% EXISTING HOME
OWNERS MAKE UP
90%. AND MANY OF THEM JUST
DON'T WANT TO SELL RIGHT NOW
IT'S LOCKED IN ANOMALY LOW
MORTGAGE RATE AND SO
WE HAVE A LOCK ON THE DOOR AND
THAT'S NOT GOING TO GO AWAY
EVEN POST-PANDEMIC.
>> WHAT WOULD YOU ADVISE TO
FIRST TIME BUYERS WHO ARE
LOOKING AT THESE PRICES THE
MEDIAN PRICE
EXTREMELY HIGH. THEY SEE IT IS
EXPENSIVE WHAT WOULD YOU ADVISE
THEM.
>> WELL ACTUALLY THE PRICE
ISN'T EXACTLY WHAT
MATTERS. IT'S HOW MUCH PER
MONTH DOES IT COST ME TO LIVE
IN THAT HOME AND THAT'S WHEN
YOU GET A MORTGAGE AN ACTUALLY
BETWEEN MARCH
AND APRIL HOUSE BUYING POWER
HOW MUCH YOU CAN AFFORD TO BUY
ACTUALLY WENT UP BY $7,000
BECAUSE INTEREST RATES WENT
DOWN LOW RATES RIGHT NOW OUR
WATER DRIVING HOUSE PRICES UP.
BUT YOUR ABILITY TO AFFORD IT
ON A MONTHLY BASIS IS STILL
ACTUALLY QUITE GOOD NOW THERE
ARE MARKET EXCEPTIONS, SOME
EXPENSIVE MARKETS OUT THERE.
I WOULD SAY AS A FIRST TIME
HOME BUYER, IF YOU'VE MADE THE
DECISION THAT YOU WANT TO
BECOME A HOMEOWNER NOW HAS A
GOOD TIME TO DO IT BECAUSE
YOU'RE BUYING POWER.
SO STRONG IF YOU CAN FIND
SOMETHING TO YOU CAN'T BUY WAS
NOT FOR SALE EVEN ACCOUNT
FOR IT.
>> SO THAT'S INTERESTING AD FOR
A FIRST TIME HOME BUYER YOU DO
THINK THAT NOW IS A GOOD TIME
TO BUY DESPITE AD YOU KNOW
STILL IN THE STATE OF THE
PANDEMIC HOW DOES THAT CHANGE 3
YEARS FROM NOW LET'S SAY THIS
ECONOMY DOES FULLY THE COVER IS
A BETTER TO
BUY NOW, HOWEVER SAYS HOLDING
OFF UP FOR 3 YEARS AND HOPING
THAT MORE INVENTORY WILL BE ON
THE MARKET THEN.
>> I THINK THE IMPORTANT
DISTINCTION IS I
LOOK AT BUYING A HOME AS A AS A
LIFESTYLE CHOICE NOT AS AN
INVESTMENT
AND SO IF YOU'RE AT THE RIGHT
POINT IN YOUR LIFESTYLE WHERE
YOU'VE CHOSEN TO BECOME
A HOMEOWNER. IT'S GOOD. IT'S A
GOOD TIME BECAUSE IT'S ONLY
GOING TO GET MORE EXPENSIVE
THAT SAID THOUGH OBVIOUSLY IF
YOU CAN'T FIND SOMETHING THAT
YOU WANT TO BUY THEN I WOULDN'T
RUSH OUT AND JUST BUY ANYTHING
I THINK THAT'S THE QUESTION AND
THE CHALLENGES SHE SAID, THERE
WILL LIKELY BE
MORE INVENTORY. 4 HOUSES TO
CHOOSE FROM IN THE FUTURE BUT
THEY WILL ALSO BE MORE
>> AND BASED ON WHAT YOU'RE
SEEING MARK OR ARE YOU STILL
FINDING THAT PEOPLE ARE LEAVING
CITIES AND FLOCKING TO MORE
SUBURBAN OR RURAL AREAS OR IS
THAT TREND SORT OF STOPPED
ABOUT 14 MONTHS INTO THIS.
>> WELL THERE WAS A GENERAL
TREND FROM THE URBAN CORE
TO SOMETHING BE A PREPANDEMIC
LARGELY DRIVEN BY MILLENNIALS
FIRST
TIME HOME IS MAKING THE CHOICE
TO BUY A HOME IN THE SUBURBS
BECAUSE THEY'RE LOOKING AT
SCHOOLS AND OTHER AMENITIES
THAT. RELATED TO THEIR LIFE OUT
MY STYLE DECISIONS THAT ITSELF
RATED IN
THE PANDEMIC WE ACTUALLY EXPECT
THAT EVEN POST-PANDEMIC
RESEARCH IS BEGINNING TO SHOW
THAT YOU KNOW WORKING FROM HOME
WILL BE AT A HIGHER RATE THAN
IT WAS PRE PANDEMIC MAYBE NOT
WHERE WE ARE
RIGHT NOW. YOU KNOW I MAY GET
TO COME TO A STUDIO TO DO AN
INTERVIEW
WITH YOU BUT IT WON'T GO BACK
TO WHERE IT WAS BEFORE AND THAT
ALLOWS PEOPLE TO LIVES FURTHER
AWAY FROM WHERE THEY WORK
BECAUSE THEY DON'T HAVE TO
COMMUTE EVERY DAY AND SO IN A
WAY THAT WILL BE A SECOND
COMING
OF SUBURBIA IN THE YEARS TO
COME BECAUSE WE'VE NOW LEARNED
TO. DISCONNECT YOURSELF FROM
THE URBAN
>> I THINK THAT IS A REALLY
GOOD AND CERTAINLY MORE AND
MORE DIGITAL AND REMOTE WORK
EXPECTED TO STAY
HYBRID WORK IN THE FUTURE TO
YOUR POINT THERE. I'M CURIOUS
IF YOU'RE LOOKING AT PARTICULAR
MARKETS. I'D BE INTERESTED
NOTABLY TO KNOW WHAT OUR
MARKETS THAT LOOK ATTRACTIVE
RIGHT NOW CERTAIN CITIES,
CERTAIN AREAS AND WHICH ONE IS
RIGHT NOW ARE ARE STILL AT THE
MOST PRICEY.
>> WELL THE PRICES MARKETS ARE
CLEARLY THE ONES GENERALLY ON
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE COAST
MARKS IN
CALIFORNIA ACTUALLY AND THE
NORTHEAST WHERE I'M HERE IN
WASHINGTON DC UP IN NORTHEAST
CARTER TO BOSTON. THESE ARE
EXPENSIVE MARKETS AND PEOPLE
ARE GENERALLY MIGRATING OUT TO
OTHER CITIES BECAUSE
YOU CAN AND YOU CAN WORK FROM A
DIFFERENT CITY FOR AN EMPLOYER
IN NEW YORK AND THAT ALLOWS YOU
THAT FREEDOM. SOME ACROSS THE
SUNBELT MARKETS AND
TEXAS THEY'RE ALL LESS
EXPENSIVE AND GROWING POT
RELATIONS MOVING IN AND WORKERS
AND
WORKING SIR COMPANIES IN THESE
COASTAL CITIES BUT FROM THOSE
SO YOU HAVE THAT BENEFIT AND
I THINK IT REALLY MEANS THAT
THERE'S A GRAND RESHUFFLING OF
YOU WILL WHERE PEOPLE
CAN LIVE. AND IT WILL BE LESS
BASED UPON WHERE THEIR WORK IS
AS MUCH AS WHERE THEY WANT TO
LIVE IN THE FUTURE.
>> MIKE QUICKLY BEFORE I LET
YOU GO IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO
BUY A HOME FOR THE FIRST TIME
WHAT KIND OF MORTGAGE SHOULD
YOU BE LOOKING AT.
>> WELL I 30 YEAR FIXED RATE
MORTGAGE IS A PHENOMENAL DEAL
AT
THE MOMENT. BUT THAT SAID FIRST
TIME HOME BUYERS GENERALLY
DON'T LIVE IN THAT FIRST HOME
FOR 30 YEARS AND SO WHY NOT
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOMETHING
THAT
HAS A SHORTER STAY STRAIGHT.
THE TERM IS STILL A LONG BUS
SERVICE WITH SOME THE RESEARCH
IS 7 YOUR HYBRID ARE MEANING
THE FIRST 7 YEARS
ARE FIXED. AND THAT ALLOWS YOU
TO GET AN EVEN BETTER RATE THAN
THE 30 YEAR FIXED RATE LOAN.
6 IT IN FOR A LIKELY TIME FRAME
IN WHICH YOU LIVE IN THAT
BECAUSE
I THINK MOST FIRST TIME BUYERS
RARELY LIVED IN THAT FIRST
HOUSE FOR MORE THAN 10 OR 7 OR
10 YEARS.