INSIGHT ON EARLY MORNING
TRADING. I'M JOINED BY REBECCA
WALL SO THE PRESIDENT ALSO
WEALTH MANAGEMENT BACK ALWAYS A
GREAT PLEASURE TO SPEAK WITH
YOU THE S P 500 REBOUNDING
FOLLOWING A NEARLY ONE PERCENT
TO CLIMB
THIS WEEK, THE INDEX IS ABOUT
4% AWAY FROM ALL-TIME HIGHS IF
YOU SEE TODAY KICKING OFF AN
UPWARD TREND OF THEM DO THE
MARKETS STILL HAVE SOME
CHALLENGES AHEAD HERE.
>> WE DEFINITELY HAVE SOME
CHALLENGES JP MORGAN'S NUMBERS
WERE GREAT THIS MORNING
YOU THAT EARNINGS SEASON COULD
STILL BE REALLY GOOD ESPECIALLY
FOR THE BANKS OR SO AND REALLY
YOU KNOW RELEASING SOME OF
THEIR LOAN RESERVES,
NOT AS MUCH AS 1ST QUARTER 2ND
QUARTER BUT WE DO EXPECT THAT
TO HELP AS WELL AND WE START TO
SEE SOME CONSUMER ACTIVITY PICK
UP, ESPECIALLY IN A WARRANT
WITH THE HOLIDAY SEASON.
BUT OBVIOUSLY THE CPI NUMBERS
OUT THIS MORNING DO LET US KNOW
THAN INFLATION IS STILL AN
ISSUE AND IT'S NOT AS
TRANSITORY AS THE FED HAS BEEN
LEADING US TO BELIEVE AND SO
THE MINUTES A DAY I'M GOING TO
BE VERY CLOSELY LOOKING AT
THOSE TO SEE WHAT WAS REALLY
WENT ON BEHIND THE SCENES IN
SEPTEMBER AND WHERE WE CAN
REALLY GO FROM HERE.
>> SO THE CPI DATA IN
COMBINATION WITH THE FRIDAY.
>> A REPORT THAT WE GOT
ON THAT ECONOMIC OR WILL THE
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION. I SHOULD
SAY WHICH CAME IN BELOW
EXPECTATIONS, YOU KNOW THESE 2
THINGS COMBINED HOW MIGHT THIS
CHANGE
THE FED'S 10 ARE AND HOW THEY
DISCUSS AND ADDRESS SOME OF
THESE ISSUES GOING FORWARD AND
PERHAPS ACCELERATE SOME OF THE
TIMELINE.
>> YEAH, I MEAN I THINK
THAT THERE'S THAT REALLY FINE
BALANCE THEY HAVE TO TOE RIGHT
BECAUSE THEY THEY ALREADY SAID
THEY'RE GOING TO START TAPERING
POTENTIALLY NEXT MONTH
IN NOVEMBER. AND THAT IS
OBVIOUSLY TO FIGHT INFLATION
AND CERTAINLY SEE THAT
INFLATION IS A LOT SUSTAINED IN
A DOOR LEADING TO BY
CONTINUALLY SAYING IT WAS
TRANSITORY TRANS INJURY
BUT WE SEE THE JOBS REPORT, YOU
KNOW AND MISSING THE JOBS
REPORT AS A BIG A MESS AS WE
GOT REALLY JUST BE HONEST THAT
WAS REALLY NO GOOD INFORMATION
THAT JOHN SUPPORT WE HAD WOMEN
LAW THAT LAST 26,000 JOBS.
WE HAVE A 140 FOR STATE AND
LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD EMPLOYEES
AND YOU KNOW PUBLIC LOCAL
SCHOOL
SCHOOL HE'S RELATED TO SCHOOLS
THAT ACTUALLY LOST JOBS IN
SEPTEMBER WHICH
IS REALLY UNHEARD OF BECAUSE
YOU KNOW THAT IS THE MONTH
EVERYONE GOES BACK TO SCHOOL
THAT'S THE TIME AND THEY'RE
HIRING TEACHERS ADMINISTRATORS.
SO YOU KNOW WE ALSO SAW 38,000
PERMANENT JOB LOSSES IN
RESIDENTIAL ASSISTED IN
LONG-TERM LIVING CARE
FACILITIES FOR YOU
KNOW PEOPLE SO THERE'S A LOT OF
BAD NEWS AND THAT JOBS REPORT
AND NOTHING TO SPEAK OF THAT
WAS GOOD AND THEN ON TOP OF
THAT SEEING
SUSTAINED CPI INFLATIONARY
NUMBERS THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT
RIGHT NOW
WE HAVE A LOT OF CHALLENGES SO
I THINK THERE ARE EARNING
SEASONS ON THE FINANCIAL
SECTOR'S GOING TO BE
HOPEFUL AND I WILL LET THE
MARKET KNOW KATE ARE SOME HOPE,
BUT YOU KNOW SOMETHING I CHING
ISSUES INFLATION ALL OF THESE
10 TO 11 MILLION JOBS OPENING
THAT NOBODY'S
GOING BACK LOSING 200,000
PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF THE LABOR
FORCE LAST DECREASE IN THE
LABOR
PARTICIPATION RATE, THESE ARE
ALL JUST REALLY STRONG
HEADWINDS THAT WE HAVE TO DEAL
WITH
RIGHT NOW.
>> YOU MENTIONED EARNING SEASON
IN PARTICULAR FINANCIALS HERE
AND THE TRIGGER, YOU KNOW ONE
OF THE FUNDS THAT MANY PEOPLE
MAY WATCH OUT THERE XL F
TRACKING THE S P 500 FINANCIAL
SECTOR THERE WITH THAT IN MIND
UP
32% YEAR TO DATE WHAT ARE YOU
GOING TO BE LOOKING OUT FOR
FROM THE FINANCIALS AND BANKS
THAT ARE GOING TO BE
REPORTING EARNINGS. THIS
EARNINGS SEASON TO SAY THAT
THIS TRAJECTORY CAN REMAIN
INTACT.
>> YOU KNOW WE'RE REALLY
LOOKING FOR IS WHAT IS THE YOU
KNOW ON NET INTEREST MARGIN ARE
WE SEEING THAT EVEN WITH THE
INFLATIONARY PRESSURE THAT THE
BANKS ARE STARTING TO BE COVER
MAKING MORE ON ACTUAL EARNINGS
OF LOVE AND VERSUS WHAT THEIR
PAIN ON DEPOSIT
IN TERMS AND YOU KNOW THE
PROBLEM IS THAT OUR PEOPLE
TAKING LOANS OUT ARE WE GOING
TO HAVE CONSUMER SPENDING WITH
THE HOLIDAYS IS THE SUPPLY
CHAIN TO MAKE PEOPLE SAY WELL
THERE'S NOT A LOT I CAN GO BY
SO I DON'T I DON'T NEED TO
RAISE
YOU KNOW IN CONSUMER LOANS.
I DON'T NEED TO USE MY CREDIT
CARD I DON'T NEED TO TAKE OUT A
LOAN I EVEN NEED TO GO GET A
MORTGAGE MAYBE THE HOUSING
MARKET IS TOO HIGH.
ALL OF THESE THINGS YOU KNOW
EDGING TIME NOTED IN APRIL THAT
YEAR OVER YEAR LOANS ARE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER AND
HE'S STRONG PPP EVEN LAST YEAR
ABOUT 5% LAST AND WE'RE
ORIGINATIONS WORK WITHOUT PPP
IN A
NORMAL YEAR. SO WE'RE REALLY
LOOKING TO SEE LOW LEVELS THAT
HOWEVER BOTH ON THE COMMERCIAL
SIDE AND THE CONSUMER SIDE,
WE'RE LOOKING FOR NET INTEREST
MARGINS. COMING UP AND WE'RE
LOOKING FOR IN CPI TO NOT
REALLY IMPACT OR INFLATION AND
SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES, NOT REALLY
IMPACT BUT THE SPENDING SEASON
IS FOR THIS FOR ALL OF THOSE
THINGS ARE HEADWINDS THAT ARE
DEFINITELY GOING TO IMPACT
WHERE WE ARE IN THIS 4TH
QUARTER
COMING UP.
>> WHEN YOU MENTION CONSUMERS
AS WELL ONE AREA THAT CONSUMERS
ARE SEEING CONTINUED HEADWINDS
IS IN THE
TRAVEL INDUSTRY WE'VE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT AND MONITORING
SOME OF THE CANCELLATIONS AND
SOUTHWEST MOST NOTABLY COMES TO
MIND, BUT FOR MANY CONSUMERS
THAT ARE TAKING TO THE SKIES
LATER ON THIS YEAR. THERE'S NOT
JUST GOING TO BE POTENTIALLY A
HIGHER TICKET PRICE THAT THEY
HAVE TO PAY, BUT THE RISK THAT
THEY RUN OF CANCELLATIONS
AS WELL IN SOME OF HOW THE
EMPLOYMENT ATION HAS DEEP
PERMEATED INTO THE ABILITY TO
ACTUALLY DELIVER ON SOME OF THE
ROUTES AND FLIGHT SCHEDULES FOR
AIRLINES TO WHAT MOST NOTABLY
AS COMPANIES LIKE DELTA
AIRLINES EVEN HAVE REPORTED
EARNINGS THIS MORNING A MIXED
BAG THERE WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO
BE KEEPING IN MIND AND KEEPING
TABS ON IN TERMS OF SOME OF
THEIR KEY PERFORMANCE
INDICATORS.
>> SO RECORD QUESTION WE'VE
GOT A LOT OF ISSUES BUT NOT THE
AIRLINES AND SPECIFICALLY THAT
LABOR UNIONS, THEY'RE
REJECTING ARE FIGHTING BACK ON
THE MANDATORY VACCINE THAT IS
NOT YET BEEN PROMULGATED BY
BUYING IT WAS A PRESS
CONFERENCE THAT HE HAD IN
SEPTEMBER WE DON'T ACTUALLY
HAVE ANY REAL DOCUMENTS ANCIENT
LABOR DEPARTMENT DEAL OUT IS
NOT PROMULGATING A RULE THAT
WILL ACTUALLY BE PUBLISHING IT
HIT ME. I PUT OUT
BY THOUGH THIS ADMINISTRATION
VERY SOON BUT YOU KNOW I WAS
WILL DISAPPOINT
WITH SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
BECAUSE AMERICANS TURNED ON
RIGHT THERE THEY'RE PRETTY
SMART AND SO ONE SOUTHWEST
CANCELS ALMOST 2000 FLIGHTS PER
WEEK AND ANOTHER THE BARRIERS
OTHER CARRIERS ARE DOING THAT
TO THAT EXTENT
TO BLAME WHETHER AN AIR TRAFFIC
CONTROL IS JUST SIMPLY
OBVIOUSLY NOT TRUE SO BE
TRANSPARENT BE HONEST. LET THE
AMERICAN PEOPLE KNOW WHAT'S
GOING ON BECAUSE YOU
DON'T WANT TO MAKE YOUR PEOPLE
YOUR TRAVELERS THAT ARE LOYAL
TO YOUR BRAND TO YOUR AIRLINE
IN A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE LOYAL TO
SOUTHWEST, ESPECIALLY WITH
THEIR LIVES. THE PROGRAM THEY
DON'T WANT TO SAY WELL YOU KNOW
I DON'T TRUST THEM YOU WANT
TO GO AMERICAN I'M GOING TO GO
TO THE NIGHT I'M GOING TO GO TO
SO YOU DON'T WANT TO HAVE YOUR
CEO OUT THEY'RE NOT BEING
HONEST IT IS
VERY CLEAR WHAT IS HAPPENING
WITH THESE VACCINE MANDATES ARE
IMPACTING THE AIRLINES. WE HAVE
AMERICAN NOW WE'RE STARTING TO
SEE OR HEAR THAT THAT MIGHT BE
MIGHT GO ON STRIKE. THE PILOTS
MAKE
ONE STRIKE. SO WE'RE WE'RE
HAVING A LOT OF IMPACT ON THE
AIRLINES AND PEOPLE JUST NEED
TO UNDERSTAND WHAT'S GOING ON
SO THEY CAN PLAN THEIR TRAVEL
REALLY THEY DON'T NEED TO BOOK
FLIGHTS ARE NOT GOING TO BE
AVAILABLE ARE NOT GOING TO BE
HELD BECAUSE THAT'S WHEN YOU'RE
GOING TO LOSE TRUST AND IT'S
NOT THE TIME TO LOSE TRUST WITH
YOUR YOUR YOUR CONSUMER BASE
JUST LAST WEEK.
>> HAVE YOUR RECORD TO BE
QUICKER APPLE OF COURSE ALSO IN
FOCUS AS THEIR PRODUCTION IS
AND THEN THE ISSUES THE
BOTTLENECKS THERE COMING EVEN
MORE SO
TO LIGHT COULD POTENTIALLY
IMPACT WHAT THEY SEE IN THE 4TH
QUARTER ON THE IPHONE
SIDE OF THE BUSINESS, WHAT
PARTICULARLY ARE YOU TRACKING
IN TERMS OF THE IMPACT OF THE
BROADER TECH SECTOR HERE AS
WE KNOW THAT THIS GLOBAL CHIP
SHORTAGE IS NOT JUST AN APPLE
ISSUE.
>> YEAH THEY OBVIOUSLY WOULD
USE THEIR IPHONE PERHAPS
NUMBERS DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
DRASTICALLY AND IT'S ALSO THE
SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES AND
YOU KNOW IT'S IT'S IT'S A SHAME
BECAUSE WE HAVE A REALLY BIG
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE TRUMP
TRIED CHINA TRADE IMBALANCE,
YOU KNOW, I'M TARA AND WE ALL
PAY SIMPLY WENT THROUGH FOR
TONIGHT PEOPLE YOU KNOW A LOT
OF AND WE SELL OUR CHANCES TO
MOVE A LOT OF SUPPLY CHAIN
OUTSIDE OF CHINA AND OTHER
AREAS TO TO HAVE MORE DIVERSITY
OF SUPPLY CHAIN AND A LOT OF
COMPANIES THAT DIDN'T DO THAT
ARE NOW MAYBE POTENTIALLY GOING
TO UNDERSTAND THE CONSEQUENCES
DECISIONS SO WE ARE LOOKING
VERY CLOSELY AT THE SUPPLY
CHAIN MANAGEMENT ON THE APPLE
SITE AND WE'RE REALLY
UNDERSTANDING THAT SHARKS ARE
NOT JUST UNIQUE TO APPLE, BUT
SIR WE VERY IMPORTANT IN
SMARTPHONE TECHNOLOGY ALL OF
ITS PRODUCTS THAT APPLE
OBVIOUSLY PREVENT THE DISEASE.
SO THIS IS GOING TO BE A BIG
CONCERN APPLE HAS A LONG-TERM
RUNWAY HAVE A LONG-TERM GLOBAL
BLOW STRATEGY. I THINK IS VERY
SOLID. BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS IS
GOING TO AFFECT THE SHORT TERM
CERTAINLY TO CHRISTMAS IS
CERTAINLY THIS YEAR'S EARNINGS
AND I WOULD JU