ADDITIONAL SHARES THERE'S LET'S
TURN BACK TO THE MAJOR INDEXES
THE S AND P 500 NOTCHING AT
4,000 CLOSE FOR THE FIRST TIME
EVER
AS BRAD MENTIONED AND FOR MORE
ON THESE DO WANT TO BRING IN
ART HOGAN CHIEF MARKET STRATEGY
JUST AT NATIONAL SECURITIES ART
IT'S GREAT TO
SEE YOU AT THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WHAT WAS YOUR TAKE AWAY FROM
THE DAY AND CAN ALL BEACH
WALKED UP TO THIS MASSIVE
INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN FROM
PRESIDENT BIDEN.
>> A GOOD CHUNK OF IT CAN BE A
SORT OF PUT AT THE FEET OF OF
THE INTRODUCTION OF A NEW
CHECKPOINT IN THE FACT THAT
IT'S IT REALLY DOESN'T APPEAR
AS THOUGH ANY OF THIS IS GOING
THE
LONG-TERM INFLATIONARY I THINK
IT'S ACTUALLY GOING TO
STIMULATE GROWTH SO I THINK
THAT TAKE AWAY IS REALLY
IMPORTANT. I THINK THE OTHER
THINGS THAT ARE REALLY GOING
WELL AND BRAD TOUCHED ON THIS
AT THE CUT
THE CLOSE. IS THE FACT THAT WE
WE STARTED THIS YEAR. WITH LESS
THAN
EICHLER SAYS THEY VACCINES A
DAY AND NOW WE'RE AT 2 AND A
HALF MILLION SO I THINK THAT
VACCINE RACE THAT VACCINE.
ROLLOUT IT CERTAINLY IS STILL A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FACT
THAT WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE A GOOD
NOTE. THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN THE
SECOND AND 3RD QUARTERS OF THIS
YEAR.
>> I THINK THE BIGGEST QUESTION
OR IS CAN CONSUMER SPENDING
CONTINUE TO FUEL THIS ECONOMY,
WE KNOW IT MAKES HIM MORE THAN
70% OF THE ECONOMY.
TIME WHEN THE JOBS MARKET IS
STILL LACKLUSTER STILL ABOUT
10 MILLION AMERICANS OUT
OF WORK HAS SINCE THE START OF
THE PANDEMIC WE ARE GOING TO
GET THAT ALL IMPORTANT JOBS
REPORT TOMORROW, BUT THE
JOBLESS
CLAIMS TODAY STILL SHOWING THAT
ON A FIRST TIME BASIS MORE THAN
700,000 AMERICANS FILING FOR
THOSE FIRST TIME SEE
UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS JUST LAST
WEEK.
>> YEAH THAT'S SUCH AN
IMPORTANT POINT PERSON
CONTACTED BROUGHT THAT UP I
THINK ONE OF THE MISCONCEPTIONS
WE HAVE ABOUT MONETARY POLICY
RIGHT NOW IN THIS CURRENT FED
IS THAT THEY'RE WILLING TO LET
INFLATION RUN HOT AND THAT
WE'RE LIKELY TO SEE INFLATION
IT IS SUMMER AND CP COURSE, THE
PEACH NORTH OF 3% IN THE FED'S
GOING TO NOT CHANGE MONETARY
POLICY JUST BECAUSE OF WHAT YOU
JUST STATED THERE THEIR SINGLE
MANDATE RIGHT NOW IS TO GET
FULL FULL EMPLOYMENT ACT.
BUT FOR THOSE FOLKS THAT ARE
WORKING FOR THAT OTHER PART OF
THE POPULATION IS WORKING THAT
THE U.S. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE
IS 2 X WHAT IT IS HISTORICALLY
SO FOR THE LAST
50 YEARS PERSONAL SAVINGS SAT
IN
ANYWHERE BETWEEN. CALL IT 6,
8%, CONSISTENTLY FOR 50 YEARS
DURING THE COURSE OF THE
PANDEMIC IT WENT UP TO 19%.
WE'RE CURRENTLY SITTING AT 15%.
THERE'S A LOT OF
PINNED UP. SPENDING POWER
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY SPENDING
POWER LAYER ON TOP OF THAT THIS
NEXT LEVEL OF FISCAL
POLICY STIMULUS IT'S ROLLING
OUT, I THINK YOU'RE GOING TO
HAVE A PASSIONATE CONSUMER
GETTING BACK IN
THE MARKETPLACE SAY SHEETING
THAT PENT-UP DEMAND FOR GOODS
AND SERVICES THEY HAVEN'T BEEN
ABLE TO DO
FOR YEARS. SO I'M NOT AND I'M
NOT EVERYBODY, I'M GLAD YOU
BROUGHT UP THE EMPLOYMENT PART
BECAUSE WE NEED
TO SEE WE NEED TO SEE VIRTUALLY
EYE YEARS WORTH OF $750,000
JOBS REPORTS TO GET ANYWHERE
CLOSE TO GETTING BACK TO
PREPANDEMIC LEVELS AND
EMPLOYMENT.
>> AND IT IS PARTICULARLY THAT
LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY SECTOR
WE KNOW RESTAURANTS CONCERT
VENUES AT THINGS OF THAT NATURE
THAT MEANS SO NEGATIVELY
IMPACTED HOPEFULLY ONCE THE
WARM WEATHER GETS HERE AND
STARTS TO IMPROVE WE CAN SEE
MORE JOB GAINS THERE,
ESPECIALLY AS THE
ECONOMY REOPENS AS WELL AS SOME
ECONOMISTS EXPECTING ROUGHLY
600,000 JOBS CREATED LAST
MONTH,
SOME KNOW PEGGED THAT NUMBER AT
MORE THAN A MILLION. WHAT IS
YOUR EXPECTATION FOR JOB GAINS
IN MARCH.
>> YES, IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA
THAT WE SAW THE MONTH OF MARCH
AND UNDERSTAND THAT THE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY WAS ACTUALLY PRETTY
SLOPPY IN TERMS OF ECONOMIC
DATA AND I
A LOT OF WHAT YOU WOULD HAVE
OTHERWISE HAPPEN IN FEBRUARY
ACTUALLY HAPPENING IN MARCH WE
HAD TERRIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. WE WE WERE WEDGED
IN BETWEEN 2 STIMULUS PLANS.
IT WAS A MONTH WITH THE ISLAND
OF NO
STIMULUS INSERT WE IRS A
DELAYED REFUNDS BY COUPLE OF
WEEKS SO DIANE FORD INTO MARCH
WHERE MOST OF THE ECONOMIC DATA
HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN ACTUALLY PULLED FORWARD FROM
FEBRUARY SOME OF THE ACTIVITY
WE WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE SEEN
FOR THAT REASON FOR THE INPUTS
THAT WE'VE SEEN WE THINK WE'RE
GOING TO NORTH OF A MILLION
JOBS CREATED I THINK IT'S GONNA
LOOK POPPING IN THE VERY
BEGINNING BUT GETTING BACK TO
YOUR
ORIGINAL POINT THERE'S MORE
THAN 10 MILLION PEOPLE ARE OUT
OF THE WORKFORCE AND HAVE BEEN
SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE
PANDEMIC WE'LL NEED
TO SEE A YEARS WORTH OF THOSE
TYPES OF TERRIFIC JOB
NUMBERS THE JOBS REPORT TO GET
BACK TO PREPANDEMIC LEVELS BUT
WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
WHATSOEVER FOR NORTH OF A
MILLION TO THE WORLD.
>> WOW OKAY SO AS BIG OF A
STORY HAS A RECORD HIGH ON THE
S AND P 500 IS I THINK THE 10
YEAR TREASURY YEAR. ALSO A
MAJOR STORY APPALLING ONE-TENTH
OF A PERCENT JUST IN THE PAST
SEVERAL SESSIONS CLOSING AT
ABOUT 1.6 7%
WE HAD SEEN IT EARLIER THIS
WEEK AS HIGH AS ONE
0.7 7%. WHY IS IT SO VOLATILE
AND WHY THE MOVE DOWN ON THE 10
YEAR. COUPLE THINGS HAPPENED SO
WHY SO.
>> WE ADDED 81 BASIS POINTS THE
YIELD ON THE 10 YEAR SO FAR
THIS YEAR THAT'S A DOUBLE FROM
WHERE WE WERE LAST YEAR READ
AVERAGED 81 BASIS POINTS FOR
THE ENTIRETY OF LAST YEAR SO
THAT SEEMS LIKE A LOT WHEN YOU
GO FROM LESS THAN A PERCENTAGE
POINT TO ONE 0.7 7 ON A PRETTY
ESTERDAY IT SEEMS LIKE A
A MAGNIFICENTLY MOVE A
PARABOLIC MOVE IN REAL TERMS
IT'S NOT IN NOMINAL TERMS IS
NOT BUT CERTAINLY IT FEELS LIKE
A LOT. I WILL TELL YOU WHAT'S
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW SO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THIS QUARTER
STARTING IN APRIL JAPAN LIKELY
HAS BECOME IN
THE MARKET PLACES THIS TEAM IS
PLAYING THIS AND THAT BUYER OF
US TREASURIES
IN ANYTHING NORTH OF LONDON
AFTER SAID HIS TRIGGER THAT SO
THEY'RE TREASURY IS NOW BUYING
US US TREASURIES
AND I THINK THAT IS GOING TO AT
LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM KEEP A
LID ON THIS PARABOLIC RISE
WE'VE SEEN IN THE OVER THE 10
YEAR WE THINK WE EXIT THE YEAR
BETWEEN 2, 2, AND A QUARTER
PERCENT I THINK THAT'S I THINK
IT'S A MANIFESTATION
OR OR I THE WAY OF EXPRESSING
THAT THE ECONOMY'S DOING THAT
MUCH BETTER AND I THINK GOOD
THE MARKET WILL BE OKAY WITH
THAT THE MARKET JUST ISN'T OKAY
WHEN IT HAPPENS IN A WEEK.
IF THIS IS A GRADUAL RISE IN
RATES I THINK THE MARKET CAN
HANDLE RATES THAT ARE NORTH OF
2% BY THE END OF THIS YEAR.
I CERTAINLY THINK THOUGH 6
WEEKS AGO WE WENT THROUGH THAT
ONE AND A HALF AND THEN WE JUST
HAD A CRESCENDO OF HIGHER
YIELDS LOWER TREASURY PRICES IN
THE MARKET REALLY HAVE A
DISORDER I THINK THAT HAS COME
DOWN QUITE A BIT BUT I
CERTAINLY THINK WHAT HAPPENED
IN THE MONTH OF APRIL AND WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE OF THIS IS
JAPAN HAS NOW BECOME AND THAT
BUYER THAT THAT PUTS A LID ON
YIELDS FOR A LITTLE BIT.
>> AND WHERE ARE YOU PROJECTING
A NET STOCKS AND THE YEAR ARE.
>> SO WE THINK THE S AND P 500
GET TO 4300 AT THE END OF THIS
YEAR
WHICH SEEMED A BRAVE WHEN I
WROTE THAT IN JANUARY IT SEEMS
HOLE IS CERTAINLY LESS BRAVE AS
WE CROSS 4,000 TODAY THAT THE
END OF THAT 1ST QUARTER
ACTUALLY DON'T THINK WE GET
THERE IN A
STRAIGHT LINE. BUT IF YOU'RE TO
TAKE THE CONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS
ESTIMATE FOR EARNINGS IN THE S
P 500 WHICH IS ABOUT A $186 AND
PUT TODAY'S MULTIPLE ON THAT
EARNINGS LEVEL AT THE END OF
THIS YEAR YOU TO BE A 4300
I THINK THOSE BATTERIES
ESTIMATE GOES HIGHER AFTER THE
1ST QUARTER EARNINGS SEASON I
WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONSENSUS MOVE UP TO ONE 92 AND
THEN THE MULTIPLE CAN COME
DOWN. BUT THE BEST PART ABOUT
THE 4300 IN THE 4TH DOWNS WE'RE
AT TODAY. IT'S HAPPENED WITH
MUCH BROADER BROADER SPONSOR
SHIP WHEN YOU LOOK AT
LEADERSHIP NOW IT'S COMING FROM
PLACES LIKE FINANCIALS AND
ENERGY AND INDUSTRIALS SO WE'RE
NOT AS DEPENDENT AS WE WERE IN
2020 ON A DOZEN OR SO
TECHNOLOGY NAMES WERE ACTUALLY
A BROAD MARKET RALLY, WHICH
WHICH TENSE DAY, YOU KNOW HAVE
BE TOWARD YOUR ABILITY TO ITS A
4,000 THIS NEW HIGH IT FEELS
LIKE A MUCH BETTER PLACE THAN