>> WELCOME BACK TO WAKE UP WITH
CHEDDAR TODAY IS BLACK FRIDAY,
ONE OF THE BIGGEST SHOCK THE
DAYS OF THE YEAR, BUT WITH
INCREASED PRESSURE FROM
INVENTORY ISSUES AND SUPPLY
CHAIN DELAYS SHELVES MAY NOT BE
A STOCK AS USUAL LABOR
CHALLENGES THAT FEDEX AND UPS
COULD ALSO KEEP GIFTS FROM
GETTING UNDER THE TREE THIS
HOLIDAY SEASON. CYBER MONDAY
SALES COULD ALSO SEE A DECREASE
THIS YEAR AND FOR MORE WE'RE
JOINED BY ELIZABETH DE BURGH
THE ADVISORY PARTNER FOR
INFOSYS CONSULTING ELIZABETH SO
GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON HOPE YOU
GET A GREAT SO TODAY IS BLACK
FRIDAY AND HEAD AND I WERE
TALKING ABOUT THIS EARLIER IN
THE SHOW IS THIS GOING TO BE
THE TYPICAL BLACK FRIDAY WITH
PEOPLE CAMPING OUT AT STORES,
LINING UP TO GET THESE GOOD
DEAL BEFORE THE SUN EVEN COMES
UP OR THAT NOT HAPPENING THIS
YEAR.
>> GOOD MORNING AND THANK YOU
FOR HAVING I THINK
WITH THAT ACTUALLY SEEN A
REDUCTION IN THOSE CAMP OUTS
AND SOME OF THE DRAMA AROUND
THAT BLACK FRIDAY OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF YEARS.
AND I THINK THAT COUPLED WITH
THE STRENGTH AND EARLY
PROMOTIONS THAT THE RETAILERS
HAVE THAT PROVIDE
AND I THINK WE'RE GOING TO SEE
A LAYING OF THE EFFECTS OF
BLACK FRIDAY AS WELL AS
CYBER MONDAY. I DON'T KNOW
ABOUT YOU AND YOUR E-MAIL BOX
THAT IN MY E-MAIL BOX IT SEEMS
LIKE EVERY FRIDAY OVER THE LAST
MONTH HIS BEDSIDE THEIR PART
AS THE BLACK FRIDAY AND CYBER
MONDAY. SO I THINK WE'RE GOING
TO SEE SOME LEVELING OFF OF
THOSE PEAKS.
>> SO WHAT ARE YOU EXPECTING IN
TERMS OF JUST FINAL NUMBERS
TODAY YOU'VE BEEN GOOD, IT'S
WE'RE GOING
TO BE LAST WHAT DO YOU THINK
WE'RE GOING TO SEE IN TERMS OF
BLACK FRIDAY ITSELF.
>> THERE'S LIKELY TO PROVE THAT
AN INCREASE OVER OVER THE LAST
YEAR PARTICULARLY WHEN IT COMES
TO E-COMMERCE WE CERTAINLY SAW
AN UPTICK IN TERMS OF
YESTERDAY FOR EARLY STARTS TO
BLACK FRIDAY
ON THANKSGIVING. WE'VE ALSO
SEEN A COMMUNICATIONS TO
CUSTOMERS COMING FROM RETAIL
CEOS ASKING TO BUY EARLY ASKING
TO BE PATIENT SAID IT HAS BEEN
A SENSE OF OF
UNCERTAINTY AND PRESSURE FROM
RETAILERS BY EARLY TO ENSURE
THAT THIS IMPORTANT
CHRISTMAS GIFTS ARE AVAILABLE
AND THAT THERE'S NO GUARANTEE
LATER ON IN
THE SEASON. THE THAT THE
INVENTORY WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
SAY NOTHING OF
ISSUES LIKE A DELIVERY FROM UPS
AND FEDEX WHERE WE EXPECT THE
SUPPLY CHAIN CHALLENGES AND
WORKFORCE CHALLENGES TO
CONTINUE.
>> WE KNOW THAT THESE ISSUES
ARE QUITE REAL IN TERMS OF US
UP BY CHAIN WHAT WE'RE SEEING
IN TERMS OF OF AS YOU
MENTIONING LABOR SHORTAGES WITH
SOME OF THESE COMPANIES.
>> BUT IS ANY OF THIS BEING.
>> TO GET PEOPLE
TO SHOP EARLY OR DO YOU THINK
WE ACTUALLY WILL SEE A
SITUATION WHERE THE END OF
DECEMBER ROLLS AROUND AND IF
YOU WAITED TO DO SHOPPING UNTIL
THEN STORAGE SHELVES WILL
ACTUALLY BE EMPTY.
>> WELL PART OF IT IS JUST THE
UNCERTAINTY THE TRENDS THAT
INVOLVING FROM COVID RETAILERS
ARE REALLY FOCUSED MUCH OF
THEIR STAR KING I EXPECT
HAITIANS BASED ON PRIOR YEAR.
SO THOSE
FORECAST MODELS ARE REALLY OUT
OF WHACK SO THERE'S GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE RETAILER
SAYS SOME OF THAT IS
YOU KNOW FROM A PLACE OF
TRANSPARENCY AND HONESTY IN A
CERTAIN RIGHT THERE IS ALSO A
SENSE
THE EARLIER YOU SHOP THE BETTER
IT IS FOR THE RETAILER AND WITH
THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE
CONSUMER THE
AMERICAN CONSUMER. IF THE
SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES DON'T COME
TO FRUITION AS EXPECTED WE
EXPECT THE CONSUMERS TO
CONTINUE TO BUY AS LONG AS THE
U.S. SHELVES ARE FULL
TO SEE A VERY STRONG DECEMBER
DECEMBER IS REALLY GOING TO BE
THE BAROMETER ON HOW
SIGNIFICANT THE SUPPLY CHAIN
ISSUES TRULY AND IT BECAUSE OF
THOSE DEMAND FORECASTING
UNCERTAINTY IS IT IS A LITTLE
BIT
UNCERTAIN SO IT IS A IT IS AN
FOR SHOULD SAY FROM THE
RETAILER.
>> WHICH IN WHICH RETAILERS.
YOU THINK WE'RE GOING TO BE THE
BIG WINNERS THIS HOLIDAY SEASON
AND WHICH MAY BE THE BIG
LOSERS.
>> YOU KNOW THE BIG WINNERS ARE
GOING TO BE THE BIG RETAILERS
ONCE THEY HAVE INFLUENCE OVER
THE SUPPLY CHAIN MAKING
EXPEDITE THEY OWN SOME OF THE
LINKS OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN.
I THINK THE ONES THAT ARE GOING
TO BE MOST CHALLENGE THEY'RE
GOING TO BE THE SMALLER LOCAL
RETAILERS. THEY'VE BEEN WORKING
BY HARD TO MAKE SURE THEY HAVE
ADEQUATE IN THE CHOICES,
SOMETIMES THEY JUST DON'T HAVE
THE FINANCIAL WHEREWITHAL TO
BUY THAT FAR AHEAD OF
THE MARKET. YOU KNOW ONCE
PROGRAMS LIKE THE AMERICAN
EXPRESS CARD PROGRAM TO
ENCOURAGE
LOCAL BUYING. BY LOCAL AS A
GREAT WAY TO AVOID THE UPS AND
FEDEX DELIVERY CHALLENGES
WE LEARNED OR SIGNIFICANT LAST
YEAR ARE LIKELY TO BE
SIGNIFICANT THIS YEAR. BUT AS
WE'VE HEARD WITH ANNOUNCEMENTS
FROM WALMART AND AND TO
TARGET AND RETAILERS LIKE THAT
THEY'VE GOT GREAT INFLUENCE AND
IN GREAT FINANCIAL WHEREWITHAL
TO
>> WHAT'S INTERESTING IS THAT
IF PEOPLE REALLY SHOP THEY
COULD POTENTIALLY BUY A GIFT
AND THEN IT'S SOMETHING ELSE
BECOMES AVAILABLE. RETURN WHAT
THEY BOUGHT AND BUY SOMETHING
ELSE WHAT IMPACTING RETURNS ARE
GOING TO HAVE THIS YEAR.
>> YOU KNOW RETURNS
ARE HAVING AN INCREASINGLY
LARGE IMPACT AND I THINK IT'S
CONCERNING
BOTH FROM THE PROCESS
COMPLEXITY THAT IT CREATES FOR
RETAILER AS WELL AS THE CALMER
SITUATION WHERE THERE'S A VIEW
ADDITIONAL SHIP
CHARGES AN EXTRA EFFORT JUST
THE EFFECT ON THE IT'S IT'S
VERY PROBLEMATIC AND CERTAINLY
SEE SOME RETAILERS WHEN A
CUSTOMER ASKS FOR
A RETURN. AN E-COMMERCE
TRANSACTION JUST SAY KEEP KEEP
THE
PRODUCTS DONATED I THINK WE'RE
GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE THAT
BEHAVIOR BECAUSE RETAILERS JUST
HAVEN'T COME UP WITH THAT
ANSWER. AND THERE'S ALSO GOING
TO BE YOU KNOW ADDITIONAL PRICE
PROMOTION. EXCHANGE
TRANSACTIONS AND THAT'S GOING
TO REALLY TAX THE WORKFORCE IS
THAT OUR STAFFING
THE RETAILERS AND THAT COULD
CREATE SOME CUSTOMER
SATISFACTION ISSUES AND IT
WINDS UP JUST ADDING MORE
COMPLEXITY TO A
FOR THE SEASON THAT IS ALREADY
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WHAT'S GOING
TO FEEL LIKE STANDPOINT.
>> WE'VE ALL GOTTEN SO USED TO
THIS IDEA OF FREE SHIPPING.
I DO THINK THAT THAT'S
REALISTIC AND YOU CAN GET
RETAILERS ARE GOING POTENTIALLY
HAVE
TO START.
>> CHARGING MORE FOR SHIPPING
JUST GIVEN LABOR SHORTAGES AND
HOW MUCH MORE EVERYTHING IS
COSTING.
>> WELL THAT'S SUCH A GREAT FOR
A
RETAILER SHIP IT ISN'T FREE
FREE SHIPPING IS JUST A QUIET
PART OF THE EQUATION
WITH THE PROMOTION IS DEFINED
FOR A CUSTOMER. SO YOU PAY
FOR A FOR SHIP IN ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER IT MAY JUST BE
BUNDLED IN WITH OTHER
PROMOTIONS, NOT BEING A VERY
A LOCAL SO I DO THINK WE'RE
GOING TO SEE REDUCED.
ADVERTISING A
FREE SHIPPING. PARTICULARLY AS
WE GET CLOSER
TO CHRIS. SO IT'S A MID
DECEMBER. THERE'S ACTUALLY
GOING TO
INCREASE FEES FOR A SHIPPING AN
EXPEDITED SHIPPING TO ENSURE
THAT GIFTS RECEIVED JUST
RECEIVED BY CUSTOMERS EARLY
ENOUGH. SO YES, THE EXPECTATION
THAT FREE SHIPPING
IS IT FILL UP ON ALL YOUR
E-COMMERCE PURCHASES IS IS
DEFINITELY GOING TO BE ONE
THAT'S GOING TO BE MET WITH