>> WELCOME BACK TO GENERAL
BUSINESS WITH TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS ARE RESUMING TODAY
AFTER BOTH THE US AND CHINA
BLACK IN BUSINESSES AND BRANDS
FROM ONE ANOTHER JUST THIS WEEK
JOINING US NOW IS BY GINO CHIEF
MARKET STRATEGIST AT HALF
TRADING PARTNER. BOB THERE'S
A LOT TO GET YOU TODAY, BUT
CURRENCY SEEMS TO BE IT
♪
ITEM UP FRONT AND CENTER WHAT
ARE YOU WATCHING FOR.
>> WELL I'M WATCHING THE EQUITY
MARKET REACTION TO THIS I SAY I
DON'T REALLY FEEL LIKE
YESTERDAY WAS ENOUGH FOR ME TO
BE CONVINCED THAT IT'S GOING TO
HAVE ANY SORT OF MATERIAL
EFFECT ON OVERALL PERFORMANCE
AT LEAST THROUGH THE
BALANCE OF WE'RE WE'RE STILL IN
THE MOST VOLATILE MONTH
HISTORICALLY FOR STOCKS WE
ARE ENTERING THE BEST PERIOD
FOR STOCKS HISTORICALLY WHICH
IS NOVEMBER TO JANUARY AND THIS
DOESN'T SEEM
TO ME. YOU KNOW ON ON ITS OWN
TO BE ENOUGH COURAGE. HE BACKS
GREAT, BUT I THINK ONE OF THE
THINGS
THAT IT KIND OF UNDERSCORES IS
THAT THIS PARTICULAR
ADMINISTRATION DOESN'T REALLY
WE UNDERSTAND THE MARKETS IN
GENERAL THE SEE SAW THAT WITH
INTEREST RATES I THINK THIS IS
PART OF THAT WAS CURRENCIES
WILL BE VIEWED AS A VICTORY BY
THE
WHITE HOUSE AND A PATH TO A
GREATER DEAL BUT I DON'T REALLY
THINK IT IS.
>> BOB WE JUST GOT THE CPI
NUMBERS JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO
MAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER. DO YOU THINK THE FED
IS GOING TO TAKE THAT INTO IT
COW WITH THE LATEST CONSUMER
DATA MOVING FORWARD IN TERMS OF
WHAT THEY DO WITH RATES.
>> I DO THEY HAVE TO IN MY VIEW
IT'S ONE OF THOSE THINGS.
US JANET YELLEN ON RECORD AND
PRIOR TO JEROME POWELL AND NOW
JAY COLLEGE WELL AT SOME POINT
IN
THEIR TENURE SAYING THAT WE
REALLY IN ORDER TO GET THAT TO
PERCENT LEVEL THAT IS THE FED'S
TARGET WE HAVE TO OVERSHOOT AS
WELL AS
UNDERSHOOT IT I THINK THEY WENT
A LONG WAY TOO WHERE DID YOU
EVER WHAT EVERYONE CALLS
MISTAKE KNOW GETTING AWAY FROM
OVER SHOOTING AT THEM, BUT IT
GOT A LITTLE NERVOUS, I KNOW
I KNOW THE CHARACTERISTIC OF
THE STEEL IN THEIR SPINE.
SO TO SPEAK ONE 0.7. WE'RE
MOVING AWAY FROM IT RAPIDLY
RAPIDLY AND I'VE ALWAYS BEEN OF
THE OPINION THAT WAS LESS I
MEAN ONE OF YOU BOUGHT ANYTHING
WITHOUT A DISCOUNT CODE WITHOUT
KEEP ON COACH OR YOU
GET THINGS YOUR FRIENDS ARE FOR
THEM TO GET A DISCOUNT WE'RE IN
A STRUCTURALLY DEFLATION.
THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE FED
DOESN'T HAVE A TON THEY CAN DO
ABOUT THAT SO I REALLY HOPE
TAKE CPR INTO CONSIDERATION AS
SORT OF AN EFFECT WHERE THEY
CAN ONE MORE TIME WE SAW THE
CME FEDWATCH TOOL. THE
PROBABILITY OF A 25 BASIS POINT
CUT GO FROM 40% JUST 1011 DAYS
AGO TO OVER
80% YESTERDAY. IT'S MOVING IN
THAT DIRECTION, FED GOVERNORS,
FED PRESIDENTS VOTING MEMBERS
RSO SAYING
THAT YET BUT THE CPI OPENS THEM
UP TO BEING ABLE TO SAY WELL
THE DATA IS STARTING TO MAKE IT
OK FOR US TO DO THIS.
>> IN YOUR MIND ISN'T THE END
OF THE MARKET BETWEEN NOW AND
THE END OF THE YEAR AND WHAT
COULD MOVE THE MARKETS IN THE
NEXT 3 MONTHS.
>> THING TO SAY LOOK WE'RE
STARTING EARNINGS RIGHT SO WE
CAN OVERSHOOT ON EARNINGS FROM
AT ACTUALLY IT HAS TO
BE DRAMATICALLY. IT'S GOING TO
BE A GOOD THING WE HAVE TO HAVE
SOME GOOD GUIDANCE CALLS WE
HAVE TO BETTER GUYS CAUSE AT
LEAST THAT WE HAVE DEALT IT
TODAY WHERE THEY SAY WE DON'T
COMPETE ON PRICE. WE COMPETE ON
QUALITY THAT'S GREAT. BUT
THAT'S SORT OF A EVERY COMPETE
ON PRICE TO A CERTAIN DEGREE
KNOW SEEMS TO ME TO BE A LITTLE
BIT OF A COP OUT SO EARNINGS
WOULD BE A BIG BIG HELP
OPTIMISM OUTSIDE ANY DEAL WOULD
ALSO BE A BIG HELP ESPECIALLY
COMING FROM CHINA, THE MARKET
IS ENTRENCHED IN
THIS IDEA THAT PRESIDENT XI
JINPING IS PRESIDENT FOR LIFE.
HE ISN'T NECESSARILY. THERE'S
PRESSURE ON HIM INTERNALLY THAT
MIGHT EXCEED THE PRESS THE
ELECTION PRESSURE WE HAVE HERE
THE MARKETS ALSO ENTRENCHED IN
THIS IDEA THAT CHINA'S TRYING
TO WAIT OUT THE 2020 ELECTION.
I THINK THAT'S TRUE
TRUE, BUT IF WE GET OPTIMISM
COMING FROM CHINA, IT MAY KIND
OF CHANGE OPINION
MARKET WIDE THAT COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT GETS BACK UP
TOWARD THOSE HIGHS BUT I SAID
THIS LAST COUPLE TIMES THAT I
WANT
YOU GUYS THERE'S MORE RISK TO
THE DOWNSIDE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE UP
SIDE GOING INTO THE END OF THE
YEAR EVEN THOUGH WE'VE GOT THAT
TAIL WHEN A STORE CULLS FIND.
>> AND THAT 2020.
THEY'RE A CANDIDATE ON THE
DEMOCRATIC THAT YOU THINK COULD
MOVE THIS MARKET SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER OR LOWER IF IF THEY DO.
FACE TRUMP IN THE GENERAL
ELECTION AND ULTIMATELY.
>> I THINK IT'S A QUESTION FOR
THE GENERAL ELECTION. BUT I
THINK THE ELIZABETH WARREN IS
VIEWED AS BEING MORE NEGATIVE
FOR
THE MARKETS, HAVING SAID THAT I
REALLY THINK SHE'S FOLLOWING
THE ACTUAL PLAYBOOK OF GOING
LEFT AND THEN MOVING TOWARD
CENTER IN THE GENERAL I THINK
SHE'LL MOVE MORE TOWARD CENTER
IN THE GENERAL. SHE HAS SOME
OTHER SIDE OF THE REAL POPULIST
IDEAS LIKE CUTTING STUDENT DEBT
COMPLETELY
ELIMINATING IT. THINGS LIKE
FREE COLLEGE A LOT OF THE OTHER
DEMOCRATS SUBSCRIBE TO GUN
COUNTRY FOR ALL THAT THOSE
THINGS ARE ALL VIEWED AS MARKET
NEGATIVE FOR THEM. PART HAVING
SAID THAT I KNOW SHE KNOWS THAT
PROBABLY CAN'T GET MUCH OF IT
DONE AND SHE MIGHT MOVE TO
THE SEC AND THAT MIGHT HELP I
THINK JOE BIDEN IS VIEWED AS A
LITTLE BIT BETTER BUSINESS
CANDIDATE BUT YOU KNOW AT THIS
POINT BECAUSE THEY ALL HAVE TO
MOVE SO FAR LESS
TO GRAB THE BASE OF THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY WIN THE BUT
IT'S TIME TO SEE YOU DO IT I
LIKE ANDREW YANG BUT UH BUT I
DON'T THINK THIS
SHOT HERE.
>> BOB HOW SHOULD INVESTORS
REALLY APPROACH THESE TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS AND THERE'S A LOT
OF THEORY
OUT THERE THE CHINA MIGHT WAIT
UNTIL AFTER THE 2020 ELECTION
BEFORE THEY MIGHT MAKE ANY SORT
OF DEAL. SO WHAT ADVICE DO YOU
HAVE FOR TRADERS OUT THERE TO
KIND OF GO THROUGH THIS.
THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION BUT
ODDLY ENOUGH. WHAT HILLARY
ISN'T
THAT HIGH. AND SO PROTECTION
ISN'T THAT EXPENSIVE RELATIVE
TO THE DAMAGE IT COULD BE DONE.
>> ADMINISTRATION JUST AS WE'RE
DONE WE'RE NOT DOING A DEAL BUT
ON THE ELECTION. THAT SOUNDS
EX-RUSSIAN RIGHT THAT SOUNDS
LIKE TOO. IT GETS TO THAT POINT
PROTECTION IS WHAT YOU WANT
WHAT PROTECTION YOU MORE
PROTECTION THAT YOU DO YOU NEED
TO BE INVOLVED. IF YOU'RE NOT
INVOLVED IN
THE MARKET, IT'S UP SOME WAY
KIND OF TAKE THAT DOWN AT AND
PROTECTION YOU'LL MISS A HUGE
PORTION OF MOVE UP.
THE SURPRISE MOVE UP. IT'S
WHAT'S WHAT'S WHAT'S GOING TO
SHOCK THE MARKET AGREE GRADUAL
DEAL IS GOING TO SHOCK THE
MARKET THAT CAN BE SEEN COMING
FROM A MILE AWAY.
>> I DO IS TO CHINESE COMPANIES
OBVIOUSLY THAT WAS AN IDEA
FLOATED IN
THE PAST. YOU SEE ME PROBABLY
THINK THAT WOULD CAUSE A LOT OF
VOLATILITY IN THESE MARKETS.
>> I DO WHAT I DON'T THINK
THERE'S TOO MUCH PRESSURE.
A GLOBAL
ARE JUST OPENED ITS EASIER FOR
TO DEAL WITH A HIGH TARIFF AN
IPO YOU JUST HAVE SHUT DOWN A
BLACK LISTEN. IT'S
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE. IT'S
INTERESTING TO ME THE BLACKLIST
AND WE GOT BASED ON HUMAN
RIGHTS THAT WAS KIND OF SWITCH.
THAT WAS INTERESTING IS THAT HE
THINKS
THAT IS TRADE RELATED IT IS
SAYING WAIT WHILE A WAS
I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY A
DIFFICULT THING TO GET THROUGH
I THINK THAT'S GOING TO GO IN
FALL BUT PASSED THE
NEW CYCLE AS A BUNCH OF THINGS
THAT ROOM AND THAT DIDN'T
HAPPEN WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST