LAGGARDS WE'VE GOT
ROEKEL DROPBOX AND SALES FOR
STOCK ON THE TECH NAMES
ACTUALLY WHICH IS TRADITIONALLY
DO THE LAW FOR US THERE ARE
ACTUALLY SOME
OF THE.
>> THE WORST PERFORMERS HERE ON
THE DAY RIGHT GUYS LET'S BREAK
DOWN THIS MARKET CLOSE A LITTLE
BIT MORE HERE'S A NEW RECORD
HIGHS. DAN SCHAFER WHO IS THE
PRESIDENT
ACTUALLY FOR AS THAT MANAGEMENT
JOINING US HERE TODAY, DAN
GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE BREAK
THIS DOWN BIG TAKE AWAY GOING
INTO TURKEY DAY.
>> WELL HISTORICALLY THE MARKET
RALLIES AND THANKSGIVING IT
CERTAINLY HASN'T DISAPPOINTED
THIS YEAR. THE QUESTION
IN TWILLEY CAN YOU KNOW THE OF
THE MONTH IS OUT OVER ITS
FRIDAY'S NOT TO THEY
THE EUPHORIA, THERE'S A LOT OF
MONEY INTO THE MARKETS THROUGH
THE FEDERAL RESERVE THE
QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THAT
LAST AND
IT JUST JUST LOOKS VERY
INTERESTING. UH I DON'T THINK
WE'VE SEEN THIS SINCE THE LATE
20'S, RIGHT.
>> AND I KNOW YOU KNOW DAN, YOU
KNOW WE WE HAVE HAD JOHN A LOT
YOUR FRONT OF THE SHOW HERE
AT THIS POINT AND I JUST FEEL
LIKE YOU'RE HOLDING BACK ON US
IF WE'VE GOT
A LOT OF OF PESSIMISM AND
HEADING INTO YOU KNOW THE NEXT
COUPLE OF MONTHS, YOU SAID HERE
BEFORE YOU SEEM A BIT MORE
SUBDUED TODAY, ADAM NOW THAT'S
BECAUSE IT'S THANKSGIVING
COMING UP ARE OR WHAT BUT WHAT
ARE SOME OF THAT THE CHALLENGES
THAT WE SHOULD BE AWARE OF.
>> WELL I CAN
GET EXCITED YOU WANT, BUT THE
ISSUES THAT I SEE YOU KNOW THE
GDP NUMBERS
THAT ARE.
>> AS THEY COULD AND THEN A
CONCERT GOING. THAT'S THAT'S
THE NUMBER
ONE THING AND NUMBER 2 IS THIS
REPO MARKET WITH THE FEDERAL
RESERVE PUMPING MONEY INTO THE
BANKING SYSTEM. I MEAN TODAY
THEY
BILLION. 21 BILLION OF THAT IS
14 DAY REPOS WHICH MEANS
THEY'RE GOING TO WAIT 14 DAYS
TO GET THAT
MONEY BACK. I JUST DON'T
UNDERSTAND I'VE BEEN IN THIS
BUSINESS SINCE 1983 STARTED AS
A FLOOR TRADER AND I'VE
NEVER SEEN A FEDERAL RESERVE OR
A BANKING SYSTEM DOING WHAT
IT'S DOING WHERE THE MONEY IS
OVERSUBSCRIBED ALMOST DAILY BY
BANKS AND NOT JUST UNITED
STATES BANKS. WHY IS THERE THIS
SHORTAGE SO I'M NOT A I'M NOT
BRINGING IN THE DOOM AND GLOOM,
IT'S GREAT THAT THE STOCK
MARKET'S UP IT'S GREAT THAT THE
PRESIDENT IS TOUTING HOW GREAT
THE STOCK MARKET IT IS SIMILAR
TO THE PRESIDENT IN THE 1920'S.
AND I JUST DON'T SEE
THINGS IF YOU DO CHART OF
EARNINGS VERSUS WITH THE STOCK
MARKET IS SOMETHING IS OUT
OF BALANCE AND AGAIN
CONSIDERING THAT INTEREST RATES
ARE SO LOW WITH THE 10 YEAR
1.7 6% WHICH WAS UNHEARD OF FOR
THE LAST 40 YEARS THAT
SOMETHING IS OUT THERE I JUST
DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS AND THAT
REPO MARKET AND THE WAY THE
CURRENCIES OF TRAINING AND THE
WAY THE MODELS ARE TRAINING AND
THE WAY THE STOCK MARKET'S
TRADING WITH VERY LOW VOLUME
AND VERY
LOW VOLATILITY. 6 IS TO ME THAT
THERE'S SOMETHING BIG AROUND
THE CORNER WHEN I CAN'T TELL
YOU
EXACTLY WHEN I DO TAKE A
CAUTIOUS POSITION AT THIS POINT
AS TO WHAT'S GOING ON IT'S JUST
NOT NORMAL FOR THE STOCKS TO BE
DOING WHAT THEY'RE DOING WHERE
THE MARKETS GENERALLY ME AS
VERY INTERESTING THAN AND SO
WITH THAT.
>> MIND YOU HAVE A LOT OF
ECONOMISTS OUT THERE A LOT OF
PORTFOLIO MANAGERS AND THEY'RE
TRYING TO SEE AROUND THE CORNER
IS WELL WITH ALL THOSE FACTORS
COMBINED AND US BEING IN AND
WHERE WE'VE NEVER REALLY HAD
THIS
MIRROR AT A DIFFERENT FACTORS
KIND OF MEETING AT THE
CROSSROADS AT THE SAME TIME HOW
MUCH HARDER DOES IT MAKE IT TO
PREDICT. WHAT IS AROUND THE
CORNER WHEN IT
WILL HAPPEN HOW YOU KIND OF
HEDGE YOUR OWN POSITION AND
BATS AND TENNIS AND SURELY HOW
THAT'S GOING TO PLAY INTO WHAT
THE MARKETS WILL DO AS THEY TRY
TO REALLY PLAY
CRYSTAL BALL IF YOU WILL IF
THEY'RE TRYING TO TAKE SOME
MONEY OFF THE TABLE HERE AND
THERE OR ROTATE INTO DIFFERENT
SECTORS.
>> WELL THAT'S A REALLY GOOD IT
IN AND YOU KNOW HISTORICALLY I
STUDY MARKET BUBBLES
AND WITH THIS TYPE OF MARKET WE
HAVE NOW WITH THE EXTENSION OF
THE RANGE OF THE S AND P AND
THE DOW AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME
I DO LIKE TIMING WITH MARKETS
THAT THERE IS A LEVEL THAT
POINT IT
WILL TURN THE QUESTION IS
WILL IT TURN SOFTLY OR WILL IT
TURN ABRUPTLY AND IF I GO BACK
AND LOOK AT
THE SILVER MARKET IF I GO BACK
AND LOOK AT THE STOCK MARKET
BUBBLE OF 1929 IF WE GO LOOK AT
1987. THEY HAPPENED OF ROCK
AND THAT
IT'S THE ISSUE THAT I THINK IS
OUT THERE THAT RIGHT NOW
EVERYBODY'S BULLISH AND YOU
KNOW WHAT EVERYBODY GETS ON ONE
SIDE OF THE BOAT IT
GETS DANGEROUS. AND A LOT OF
MANAGERS FROM WHAT I HEAR ARE
SELLING VOLATILITY BECAUSE THEY
THINK THAT THIS IS GOING TO
CONTINUE THAT NEEDS TO BE
UNWOUND AND JUST LIKE WITH THE
NATURAL GAS MARKET THAT BLEW
OUT AT THE END OF LAST YEAR
BECAUSE OF ALL THE SHORTS IN
THE MARKET AT SOME POINT THAT
HAS TO COVER AND THAT'S
WHERE MY INSERTED SO IT'S
ALMOST LIKE PLAYING MUSICAL
CHAIRS WHO'S GOING TO BE LEFT
HOLDING
THE LAST BY AT THE TOP OF THE
MARKET AND HOLDING IT ALL THE
WAY DOWN FOR RIGHT NOW
EVERYTHING LOOKS GREAT THERE'S
NO QUESTION
ABOUT IT. BUT IF YOU LOOK
INTERNALLY INTO THE MARKET WITH
THE COMMERCIALS ARE WHICH IS
THE SMART MONEY THEY SEEM TO BE
SELLING INTO THE STRENGTH HERE
AND I I HAVE A SYSTEM THAT I
DEVICE IED TRADING FOR FUTURES
MARKETS. IT SHOWS ME AT THE
SMALL SPECULATORS ARE IN THERE
WITH A LARGE TRADES ARE IN
THERE AND
RIGHT NOW I'M GETTING A LOT OF
SMALL SPECULATOR BIDDING COMING
INTO THE MARKETS NOT THE LARGE
SPECULATORS RIGHT, SO I'M
SKEPTICAL SO.
>> WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU WHEN
IT'S THE SMALL SPECULATORS.
>> WELL, THEY'RE USUALLY WRONG
USUALLY BY AT THE TOP AND SELL
AT THE BOTTOM JUST LIKE THE
BANKS, THE HISTORY OF THE BANKS
WITH THE BULL MARKET
IS THEY SELL AT THE BOTTOM AND
BUY AT THE TOP AND THEY'VE BEEN
BUYING GOLD AND I JUST DON'T
SEE THAT GOLD IS GOING TO
CONTINUE SO IT'S JUST A
PSYCHOLOGICAL WAY AT THE MARKET
TRADES YOU KNOW IT WHEN
EVERYTHING'S ON SALE, NOBODY
WANTS IT THEY'RE SELLING IT
WHEN EVERYTHING
LOOKS GREAT. THEY'RE BUYING IT
AND THAT'S THE WAY MARKETS HAVE
TRADED
FOR HUNDREDS, HERE'S IS NO
DIFFERENCE. THE QUESTION IS
WHAT'S HOLDING UP
THE MARK. WE HAVE COMPANY
EARNINGS OUT THERE THAT ARE NOT
GROWING OR NOT DOING
EXPECTATIONS. WHAT THEIR STOCK
PRICES ARE FOR THE EQUITY
MARKET IN GENERAL AND IF
EVERYTHING WAS SO GOOD WHY ARE
NOT INTEREST RATES ON THE
TREASURY'S BACK TO 5% AT LEAST
OR 4%
THEY'RE NOT THERE AND YOU LOOK
AT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND
EVERYBODY SAYS WELL THE GLOBAL
ECONOMY IS NOT DOING WELL, BUT
THE UNITED STATES
DIDN'T RATE. IT JUST DOESN'T
MAKE SENSE IF YOU
MATHEMATICALLY PUT IT TOGETHER
IT DOESN'T
MAKE SENSE AND THAT'S THE
PROBLEM THAT I SEE AND WHAT I
RELATED TO AND TO MARKET
CORRELATIONS I SEE THE SAME
THING SO TO ME IT'S JUST A
MATTER OF TIME.
>> RIGHT I GUESS THEIR RESPONSE
TO THAT AS EVIDENT. THE US,
SOME OF THE EARNINGS REPORTS
AND SENTIMENT THAT WE'VE
HEARD ON THESE EARNINGS CALLS
AS WELL AS THE CONSUMER TO
CONSUMERS SO STRONG
THAT REALLY HELPS THEM BYPASS A
LOT OF THEIR CONCERNS AND THEN
FOR THE RETAIL COMPANIES.
THEY'RE EVALUATING WHERE THEY
HAVE MORE 4 PRICE ALAS THE CITY
SO THAT THEY
CAN PASS OFF SOME OF THE COST
TO CONSUMERS WHERE APPROPRIATE
BUT IN OTHER PRODUCTS PERHAPS
KEEP THEM STABILIZED AS WELL IS
THE CONSUMER REALLY THAT STRONG
TO OFFSET ANY OF THESE CONCERNS
THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE.
>> NO I DON'T BELIEVE THAT
BECAUSE IF YOU LOOK AT SICK OF
A SALES AND YOU LOOK AT
CONSUMER WAGES AND THEN YOU
LOOK AT CONSUMER DEBT
INCREASING DRAMATICALLY.
YOU GET THE PICTURE DOESN'T
MATCH UP IT'S NOT LIKE PEOPLE
ARE MAKING MORE MONEY MORE
DOLLARS
PER HOUR AND HAVE SAVINGS AND
ARE SPENDING EXTRA MONEY
THEY'RE JUST CONTINUING THE
BORROWING SYSTEM THEY USED BACK
IN 2007 8 WHEN
THEY USE THEIR HOUSE NOW THEY
ARE USING CREDIT AND ON TOP OF
THAT WITH INTEREST RATES
SO LOW CREDIT CARD INTEREST
REMAINS A HIGH LEVELS FOR A LOT
OF CONSUMERS THAT'S A
BIG PROBLEM. A LOT OF THE
MILLENNIAL GENERATION HAS
TROUBLE MAKE A MEETING THEIR
BILLS THEY'RE LIVING IT UP
HOME, THEY HAVE HEALTH COSTS
THAT THEY DIDN'T HAVE BEFORE US
A REPORT THAT MILLENNIALS ARE
NOT AS HEALTHY AS THE OLD THEY
THE POPULATION AHEAD
OF THEM. THERE ARE OTHER
FACTORS THAT COME INTO PLAY NOW
THE GOVERNMENT CAN PLAY AROUND
WITH THE NUMBERS AS MUCH AS
THEY WANT I NEVER BELIEVE THE
UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS BECAUSE
THE WAY THEY CREATE THOSE.
BUT THE UNDERLYING THE OTHER
LINE THE ISSUE IS THE VELOCITY
OF MONEY WERE NOT
GETTING THE MOVEMENT OF MONEY
THAT WE USED TO GET SPECIALLY
WITH INTEREST RATES AT THESE
LEVELS WHICH MEANS TO ME THAT
INTEREST RATES ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE TO GO LOWER. YEAH AND
THE ECONOMY AT SOME POINT WILL
TURN IT AND THE GDP, THE FED
EXPECTATIONS OF
THE GDP IS IS REALLY LOVE IT
JUST IT'S JUST N