♪
>> WELCOME BACK TO SHOWBIZ YES,
WELL MARKETS WERE HIGHER AFTER
YESTERDAY'S FED RATE CUT BUT IT
TAKE THAT BURNETT LOWER AFTER
TRYING TO EXPRESS DOUBTS ABOUT
A TRADE DEAL EARLIER THIS
MORNING FOR THE MARK OPEN AND
NOW PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING THAT
THE LOCATION FOR SIGNING A
PHASE
ONE DEAL WHICH HE SAYS IS 60%
OF THE
OVERALL DEAL WILL BE DISCLOSED
TO SOON
♪
HEAR DISCUSSED A JUMPER
TREATIES IS A PORTFOLIO MANAGER
OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT AT
TOCQUEVILLE.
TWEET FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP HIT
THE TAPE JUST ABOUT 5 MINUTES
BEFORE THE MARKET STILL DOUBT
SO YOU MAKE OF THAT YEAH I
THINK.
>> YOU KNOW THAT TERRORISTS
WITH THE TRADE WARS WITH CHINA
REALLY HE IS A NEGOTIATION WITH
THE NEGOTIATION. SO WE GOT BOTH
PARTIES TO THE TABLE WE
UNDERSTAND HOW THIS PHASE 1, 2,
3, BUT NOW YOU HAVE TO GO SHE
PHASE ONE AND THEN SO THAT THAT
THE LINE IS DRAWN IN TERMS OF
THE PLAYBOOK BUT YOU KNOW BOTH
PARTIES CAN COME TO THE TABLE
OFFICE WHEN WE CAN'T
MOVE FORWARD AND I THINK THAT'S
PART OF THE REASON WHY SOME THE
MARKET DOWN TODAY DO YOU THINK
INVESTORS ARE BECOMING.
>> A LITTLE BIT MORE NO MORE
IMMUNE
TO ANY INCREMENTAL NAMED
DEVELOPMENT JUST UPDATES ON HOW
NEGOTIATIONS ARE GOING TO I
THINK THAT.
>> RIGHT THAT'S RIGHT
PARTICULARLY TWEETS FROM THE
PRESIDENT BUT NOT FROM THE
CHINESE AND HE CLEARLY CHINESE
CAME OUT AND SAID YOU KNOW OR
OR THE RUMORS ARE THAT THERE'S
SOME HESITATION ON THEIR SIDE
AND THAT'S WHAT'S SPOOKING THE
MARKET TODAY THAT WILL BE FOR A
PHASE ONE.
>> WHEN IT COMES TO THIS TRADE
DEAL, A 60% DEAL OF THE OVERALL
DEAL I THINK A LOT OF MARKET
PARTICIPANTS ARE STILL
WONDERING WHAT THAT
LOOKS LIKE. BUT FOR INVESTORS
ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT
STICKING POINTS IN THIS DEAL AS
IT STANDS NOW A POTENTIAL DEAL.
>> I THINK THE FACT THAT ONE
SEED DECEMBER 15 THE BIGGEST
THE NEXT THE DEADLINE AND THAT
WAS WHEN THE US WAS PUT
POTENTIAL GOING INCREASED
TARIFFS ON MORE GOODS SO THE U
S BACKED DOWN FROM THAT I THINK
THAT'S A REALLY GOOD THING
BECAUSE THERE HELPS THAT
PROBABLY BE SOME PRESSURE ON
CHINA'S ECONOMY WHICH IS ONE OF
THE MAJOR DRIVERS OF
GLOBAL GDP AND A CHINESE
ECONOMY CAN FLY ON OR OR AT
LEAST THAT YET THE THE THE
SELLER TO THE DECLINE AND
REBOUND THEN THAT HELP.
>> SAID THE OVERALL
GLOBAL MARKETS.
>> WITH THE 2020 ELECTION
COMING UP WHAT ARE THE POINTS
THAT YOU THINK PRESIDENT TRUMP
IS GOING TO PUSH THEIR ON FOR
EXAMPLE WHERE AGRICULTURAL
BUYING FROM CHINA TO
SUPPORT THE FARMERS IN THOSE
ARE I MEAN PUTTING SAY IT'S ONE
OF THOSE POINTS.
>> YES, OH, YES, IT'S A GREAT
QUESTION BECAUSE I THINK HERE
IS WHERE IT GETS TRICKY FROM A
TIME STANDPOINT ON TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS BECAUSE THE
PRESIDENT'S FAVORITE PUBLIC
OPINION POLLS, THE STOCK MARKET
AND IF HE DOESN'T GET TRADE
DEAL DONE LEADING UP TO
THE ELECTION. THE STOCK MARKET
COULD SELL OFF THE CHINESE
PRESIDENT XI HAS NO UTTER
MOMENT TO BASICALLY GRAB
HIMSELF POWER FOR
AND IT'S SET FOR AS LONG AS HE
LIVES AND HE KNOWS THAT THE
PRESIDENT WILL BE UP AGAINST
THE WINDOW OF REELECTION AND HE
KNOWS THAT HE HAS TO GET SOME
DEAL DONE WITH THE CHINESE.
SO SO I THINK THAT THE CHINESE
HAVE BASICALLY EVER
3 ABILITY TO STALL AND DRAGGED
THEIR FEET IN TERMS OF THESE
NEGOTIATIONS THE PRESIDENT
KNOWS THE ALL IMPORTANT JOBS
REPORT OUT TOMORROW WHAT WE
ANTICIPATED THIS COULD BE A
MESSY HEADLINE BECAUSE OF THE
GM STRIKE. MOST ECONOMISTS HAVE
LOWERED THEIR NUMBERS TO ABOUT
90,000 JOBS GAINED WHICH IS A
GOOD THING. ATP REPORTERS
YESTERDAY WE HAD 125,000 JOBS
GAME BETTER. THE KNICKS
BACK WE'RE SEEING SOME SLOWDOWN
ON THE MANUFACTURING SIDE
SHOULD BE AS EXPECTED AS WE SEE
INDUSTRIAL AND MANUFACTURING
SLOW GLOBALLY I WOULD EXPECT
THE TYPE OF CADENCE AS WE GO
INTO
TOMORROW'S NUMBER BUT I FOCUS
ON THE WAGE THAT IS THE DRIVER
OF INFLATION AND HAVE TO
PRESUME GIVEN THE COMMENTS OF
THE FED YESTERDAY THAT THEY
KNOW WHAT THE
JOBS NUMBERS TO BE AND THEY
KNOW THAT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE
A INCORRECTLY BAD I THINK WHAT
THEY PROBABLY WOULD HAVE MAYBE
MADE MORE OF A I I'D OTHER SIDE
TO CUT RATES IN DECEMBER
AND I THINK THAT THEY THINK THE
INFLATION IS
RELATIVELY CONTAINED. YOU KNOW,
I'M NOT EXPECTING IT MAY BE A
MESSY HEADLINE BECAUSE THE GM
STRIKE BUT NOTHING OVERLY
SURPRISED TO MARS NUMBER ON THE
FED RATE CUT SINCE YOU BROUGHT
THAT UP
WAS THERE.
>> THE THING IT IN J PALACE
LANGUAGE OR ANY CHANGE THE
NARRATIVE THAT HEARING WILL
IMPACT
INVESTOR CENT.
>> MAKE GOING IS A LARGELY
MONTH THAT I THINK PART OF
TODAY'S SELLOFF TODAY, THE
STOCK MARKET A LITTLE BIT OF
WEAKNESS IS THE FACT THAT
I THINK MANY INVESTORS WERE
EXPECTING A DECEMBER RATE CUT
AS AND THE FED BASICALLY BACK
DOWN
FROM THAT. I THE FED IS ON WIND
ALMOST EVERYTHING YOU DID LAST
ELECTION THE FED INCREASED
RATES. 4 TIMES ISSUE THAT CUT 3
TIMES THEY DID ONE ON INTER
QUARTER
BASIS WHICH WHICH HAS BEEN VERY
RARE THEY ALWAYS SAID EVERY
MONTHLY MEETING IS LIVE, BUT
THEY NEVER IT NEVER CUT IN THE
LIKE MEDIUM NOW
THEY HAVE THEY BASICALLY OF
HAVE HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM THE
PALACE SAID THE COST THE BAR
MONEY AT ONE AND A HALF TO ONE
0.7 5% ON THE FED FUNDS RATE IS
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
ECONOMY THE HUMMING ALONG AT
FULL EMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION
CONTAINED. SO REALLY THAT THE
FED HAS BACKED AWAY AT LEAST
FROM THEIR LANGUAGE FOR THE
REST OF THE YEAR.
>> HOW MUCH IS IT TO KEEP THE
ECONOMY HUMMING ALONG VERSUS
JUST KEEPING MORE TOOLS IN HIS
TOOL BELTS GIVEN STILL THE
UNCERTAINTY AROUND TRADE AND
JUST MACRO UNCERTAINTY AS YOU
MENTION TRADE AND MANY TIMES
STORING A A NEWS CONFERENCE AND
HE'S FEARFUL I THINK OF USING
TOO MANY OF
HIS TOOLS TRADE IS RESOLVED AND
THEY'RE OFF TO THE RACES AND
THEN HERE WE ARE YOU KNOW 12
MONTHS ARE NOW TALKING ABOUT
THE FED RAISING RATES YOU KNOW
BECAUSE OF THAT THEY WENT TOO
FAR SO I THINK THAT THE THE
OUTCOME OF THE TRADE TARIFFS
THAT BIG AREA OF ALL THAT IS
BEING VERY CONSCIOUS.
>> I THINK ABOUT THIS TIME LAST
YEAR AND THIS IS WHEN WE
STARTED
TO SEE APPLE STOCK A BREAKDOWN
FOR BOTTOMED AT THE VERY END OF
IT 20 18 AT
THE FACT THAT THESE EARNINGS
CAME IN BETTER THAN EXPECTED
THE STOCKS OF 2% TODAY. NOW
WHILE THE OUTSIZE BIT HIGHER
BUT STILL WON,
BUT AT LEAST SHOWS THAT SEEMS
TO BE STEADY HEADING INTO THIS
HOLIDAY SEASON. WHAT SORT OF
OVERALL SENTIMENT IS THAT
PROVIDE THE SHOPPER AND THE
INVESTOR NOW
I MEAN.
>> FIGURE OUT WHERE WE WERE
THIS TIME LAST YEAR THE 4TH
QUARTER OF 2018 THE STOCK
MARKET WAS DOWN 15% AT ONE
POINT
I DID VOLATILITY EXPLODED TO
THE UPSIDE AND AND HERE WE ARE
A YEAR LATER AND OVERALL
EARNINGS ARE PRETTY GOOD BUT
OUTSIDE OF THE CYCLICALLY
SENSITIVE INDUSTRIALS
MATERIALS, STOCKS. SO YOU KNOW
YOU KNOW EARNINGS COMPANIES
COMING IN
75% BETTER. THE COMPANY'S NEXT
WE HAVE 100 OF BEATING ANALYST
EXPECTATIONS ARE NICE AND
CERTAIN TO COMING IN
ON A QUITE HEALTHY CLIP.
SO I THINK THAT IS THE KEY TO
DRIVE THE MARKET HIGHER WITH
THE FED NOW BASICALLY I THINK
CUTTING OFF FOR THE REST OF THE
YEAR PROVIDING ENOUGH STIMULUS
AND HOPEFULLY WE GET SOME
POSITIVE LANGUAGE WITH CHINA
DRIVE THE STOCK MARKET HIGHER.
>> IT DOES SEEM LIKE HOLIDAY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EITHER IN
LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR
CORPORATIONS EVEN BEATING
EXPECTATIONS HOW MUCH MORE
CRITICAL OF THIS HOLIDAY SEASON
BE IN SETTING THE PRESIDENT
FOR 24.
>> WELL THE US CONSUMER IS
KEEPING THE ENTIRE WORLD FROM
GOING INTO RECESSION.
I MEAN YOU KNOW YOU SEE THE
GLOBAL USE EMERGING ECONOMIES
FROM A NATIONAL STANDPOINT IS
TRICKLING DOWN. EUROPE IS
A MESS AND THE US CONSUMER, 60%
OF OUR ECONOMY AND CONSUMERS DO
QUITE IF THE
CONSUMER BUCKLES YOU'RE GOING
TO SEE A SLOWDOWN IN GDP AND
THAT'S GOING TO BE THAT'S GOING
TO REALLY BAD THINGS FOR THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND THE STOCK
MARKET SO I THINK ALL EYES WILL
BE ON HOW HEALTHY THE CAN SUE
THAT WILL BE