I WANT TO BRING IN CHRIS
CAMPBELL IS THE CHIEF RACQUEL
AND FORMER U.S. ASSISTANT
TREASURY SECRETARY FOR
FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS CHRIS
GOOD TO SPEAK WITH YOU THIS TO
GET YOUR REACTION FIRST AND
FOREMOST TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN
SEEING ON THE EARNINGS FRONT
THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
>> YEAH LOOK I THINK IT'S
INCREDIBLY GREAT TO SEE THAT
THE MOST COMPANIES OF READINGS
BEING THAT WALL PREDICTIONS.
DEMONSTRATES
THAT THE THE ROARING BACK AFTER
A POSTING ON AFTER
THE PANDEMIC WITH SOME
OBVIOUSLY ISSUES AROUND THE
DELTA VARIANT, YOU KNOW IN
GENERAL I THINK CERTAIN THINGS
ARE
LOOKING UP. INCLUDING
INFLATION. SO. BUT BUT IN
GENERAL, I THINK YOU KNOW
EARNINGS I SPECIFICALLY
EARNINGS I COMPANIES TENDER
TEND TO DO VERY AND PREDICTABLY
IN SOME SECTORS THAT HAVE BEEN
REALLY CLOSE REACHABLE I DURING
THE PANDEMIC.
>> LET'S JUST DISCUSS THE
INFLATION A LITTLE FURTHER AS
WELL BECAUSE WE'VE
HEARD THERE INCLINATIONS FROM
THE FED AND WHAT THEY ARE
LOOKING TO DO WITH POLICY
THEY'VE GOT THEIR OWN TARGETS
OF COURSE, NOT JUST FOR
INFLATION, BUT ALSO ON THE
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION FROM
LOOKING FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY TO
GET BACK TO
PREPANDEMIC EMPLOYMENT LEVELS
WHAT MOST NOTABLY DO YOU THINK
ARE SOME OF THE NEXT NEXT STEPS
THAT YOU ANTICIPATE FROM THE
FACT.
>> A LOOK AT THE DEFENSE GOING
TO DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO
CHANGING RATES AND THAT'S WHAT
WE MEAN EVERYTHING AND SO I
THINK WE'LL SEE SOME TAPERING
WELL BEYOND WELL BEFORE WE GO
TO THE GOING
RATE CHANGES. BUT THE AT ON THE
ON SO I THINK IT STARTED OUT
AND PLAY
YOU KNOW CHURN TERM POLICY JUST
THAT IT'S A TRANSITORY EFFECT I
I I I
VERY MUCH RESPECT HIM AND I
LIKE TO LOOK FORWARD AND I LIKE
WORKING WITH THEM WAS THE
TREASURY. I DISAGREE WITH HIM
ON I LOOK IF YOU LOOK AT THIS
THAT THE PRESSURE THAT
COMPANIES ARE SPECIFICALLY,
ESPECIALLY SMALL
BUSINESSES HAVING. A
SIGNIFICANT HIGHWAY JUST TO GET
PEOPLE BACK TO WORK FORCE.
THAT'S WHICH IS JUST TO COME
BACK DOWN. THERE'S ALSO
PRESSURE I THINK IF YOU LOOK AT
THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT AND
WE'VE ALREADY TO TRAIN DOLLARS
THIS YEAR
RUN ON TRACK TO SPEND ANOTHER
TRILLION DOLLARS AND
SUPERSTRUCTURE PACKAGE THAT THE
SENATE IS LOOKING TO THE PAST
AND LATER THIS YEAR 3.5
TRILLION DOLLARS IN NEW
SPENDING THAT'S YOU KNOW THAT'S
RECORD SPENDING IN THE
U.S. GOVERNMENT AND ALSO ALL
HAVE INFLATION ARE PRESSURING
IF YOU KIND OF THING POSE IN
ONE POINT THAT RADAR TAX
INCREASE. ALL THAT WILL BE
PASSED ON TO CONSUMERS AS AND
SO THERE'S JUST A LOT OF INPUT
AND THEN OF COURSE WITH THE
FEDERAL RESERVE IS DOING 5
YOU KNOW, IT'S A VERY
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIQUIDITY
IN THE MARKETS ALL OF
THAT HOUSE, A SIGNIFICANT
INFLATIONARY PRESSURE AND I
DON'T DOESN'T LOOK AT THAT'S
GOING AWAY ON SICK PERHAPS IT
BUT WE'RE PUSHING FOR PUT YOUR
FOOT ON THE GAS NOT ON THE ON
THE BRAKE ON ANY OF THOSE
THINGS SO I THINK THAT
EXPECT THE FEDERAL RESERVE WHAT
THEY DO I JUST DON'T BELIEVE
THAT WE'RE IN TRY TO TOURS AND
FICTION OR PARADE. I THINK
WE'RE HERE FOR A WALK FOR
TIBET.
>> CAN YOU HELP US KIND OF
THINK ABOUT THE MINDSET OF
THE CONSUMER RIGHT NOW A LITTLE
BIT MORE ESPECIALLY AS WE HAVE
INCREASINGLY AS CONSUMERS IN
ONE FASTER ANOTHER CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WHERE SUPPLY CHAINS
HAVE MEANT THAT WE'RE GETTING
PRODUCTS LATER WHERE SOME OF
THE LABOR SHORTAGES HAVE MEANT
THAT FLIGHTS MIGHT BE CANCELED
WHERE ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT
POCKETS OF
THE REOPENING WHERE WE WOULD
HAVE TYPICALLY SPENT INTO THERE
IS A FAR DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE
THAT ACT ACTUALLY BEING TAKEN
ON WHAT DOES THE CONSUMER MAKE
OF THAT RIGHT NOW AND
WILL THAT HINDER SOME OF THE
OWN THOUGHT PROCESS ABOUT
WHETHER OR NOT THE CONSUMER
STILL FINDS VALUE IN CERTAIN
POCKETS OF WHERE THEY WOULD BE
SPENDING AND WHERE COMPANIES
HAVE BEEN CITING PENT-UP
DEMAND.
>> LATER ON TOP OF WHICH ALL OF
THE THINGS YOU DO THIS YOU JUST
YOU JUST MENTIONED THE DELTA
VARIANT THERE'S A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE. WHERE THERE'S WAS A
BIT YOU KNOW.
IT REALLY DOES NO ONE KNOWS
REALLY WHAT'S HAPPENING THERE
AND YOU KNOW LOOK AT THE FACTS
ARE LOOKS LIKE YOU KNOW IT'S
IT'S THAT'S
A LETHAL IF YOU'VE BEEN
VACCINATED AND I KNOW SO YEAH,
THERE'S THERE'S SOME GOOD SIGNS
THERE. BUT THE END OF THE DAY.
BUT THE CONSUMER CAN CONSUMERS
GENUINELY AN ALMOST
UNPRECEDENTED LEVELS
OF SAVINGS BUT THEY'RE KIND OF
MONEY BURNING A HOLE IN THEIR
POCKET. WELL, I'M LOOKING
FOR WAYS TO UNLEASH THAT
CAPITAL IS ALL THAT SORT OF A
STORE SAVINGS. AND YEAH I THINK
IT LOOK AT IT MANY PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN LOCKED DOWN FOR ALMOST 2
YEARS NOW. WE WANT TO GET OUT
SO YOU KNOW THAT THOSE
INDUSTRIES THAT TRAVEL LEISURE
GOING TO BE A GREAT BENEFIT IN.
BUT YOU MET YOU MENTION
SOMETHING WHICH ISN'T PROBABLY
IMPORTANT THAN JUST THE
EXPERIENCE THAT CUSTOMERS ARE
EXPERIENCING DURING THOSE TIMES
OF TRAVEL HIS BUSINESS HAS BEEN
A CHALLENGE.
NO FLIGHT DELAYS FLIGHT
CANCELLATIONS.
YOU KNOW RAISING RAISING
SIGNIFICANT RAISING PRICES
ON HOTELS. ALL OF THIS IS GOING
TO MISS US A BAD TASTE CASE
THEM. MOST THE MOST
AMERICAN CONSUMERS.
>> AND THAT COULD BE DUE TO A
FEW FACTORS WHETHER THAT'S ON
THE LABOR SIDE AND HAVING
ENOUGH EMPLOYEES TO MAKE SURE
THAT THOSE
ROUTES ARE SUCCESSFULLY
OPERATED FROM THE AIRLINE
PERSPECTIVE THAT COULD BE AS
WELL BECAUSE OF FUEL PRICES
THAT WE'VE BEEN TRACKING THAT
AIRLINES HAVE HAD
TO PAY HIGHER FOR AS WELL, YOU
KNOW AS WE CONTINUE TO LOOK
TOWARDS THE REST OF
THIS SUMMER AND PARTICULARLY
WHEN SOME OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT
BENEFITS ROLL OFF THE TABLE
WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO BE
WATCHING FOR CLOSEST IN THE
LABOR KIND OF EQUATION AS WE
KIND OF SEE A PUSH AND PULL
BETWEEN COMPANIES AND EMPLOYEES
AS TOO WHAT THAT FULL RETURN TO
WORK MAY LOOK LIKE.
>> YEAH, I THINK
IT COULD BE CRAVING INTERESTING
AND VERY IMPORTANT TO THE
PEOPLE WHO WOULD
HAVE JOBS PREPANDEMIC WHO LEFT
THOSE JOBS FOR WHATEVER REASON
FURLOUGHED OR FOR WHATEVER
REASON THEY GO BACK TO THE SAME
KIND OF JOB OR DO THEY
GO SEE RETRAINING OR HOW THE
SUMMER TRAINING DURING THE
PANDEMIC AND MOVED TO
DIFFERENT FIELDS. AND AND THEN
KENNELLY WHAT'S GOING TO ALSO
REALLY IMPORTANT IS
PREMIUM THAT THAT THAT
EMPLOYERS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO
PUT ON A SPENDING TO CHURCH
TRACKING LABOR. THAT'S GOING TO
BE INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT BECAUSE
AGAIN, IT MEANS
SIGNIFICANT ME AND IT'S A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE THE
PRICE THAT THAT PEOPLE WILL PAY
FOR THE GOODS
AND SERVICES WHEN THEY ACTUALLY
GO IN AND CONSUME THE
RESTAURANTS OR WHATEVER THEY
CAN DO BECAUSE THOSE THAT ARE
GOING TO BE AT IT
AND SO ALL OF THOSE THINGS ARE
REALLY IN CREDIT PROBABLY AND
YOU MOST NOTED THERE'S NO NO IT
I THINK THE ROLE FROM INSURANCE
IS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST
THRUST OF THIS GOING TO PUT
PE