MANY INVESTORS THAT IS ON TOP
OF LAST WEEK'S INVERTED YIELD
CURVE WHICH IS HAPPENING.
JOINING US NOW TO DISCUSS THE
CASE RAHMAN DIRECTOR OF
EVERQUEST CAP, THE INVESTMENT
FIRM. I JASON, IT'S GOOD TO
HAVE YOU WITH US A LOOK AT
PRESIDENT AND HIS
ADMINISTRATION OUT IN FULL
FORCE OVER THE WEEKEND TRYING
TO QUELL.
ABOUT A RECESSION. WHAT IS THE
DATA THAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT IT
AND HOW.
>>THE QUESTION SO THESE ARE THE
FIRST ONE YOU KNOW I WATCHED
THE INTERVIEW WITH LARRY KUDLOW
HE
SAYS WHAT'S WRONG WITH A LITTLE
OPTIMISM. I'M A FAN OF OPTIMISM
AS FIRST AND FOREMOST WE NEED
TO LOOK AT YOU KNOW THE THE
OBJECTIVE DATA THAT'S DRIVING
THIS THIS OPTIMISM OBVIOUSLY
HIS FOCUS ON OPTIMISM I TWICE
AN INTERVIEW IS KIND OF
CONCERNS ME.
IT SEEMED LIKE HE WAS
PRESENTING OVERLY SKEWED DATA
TO TO CONVINCE
PEOPLE THAT THERE'S NOT GOING
TO BE RECESSION. I'M I'M NOT A
PESSIMIST
BUT I'M TRYING TO BE A REALIST
SO THAT BEING SAID THE ONE
PIECE OF ECONOMIC DATA FRANKLY
THAT IS THE MOST CONCERNING
IS THAT THE US MANUFACTURING
LEVELS. AS REPORTED BY THE
MANUFACTURERS THE THE PMI
NUMBER PURCHASING MANAGERS
INDEX IS THE LOWEST
SINCE 2009. AND THAT NUMBER THE
BEING THE LOWEST SINCE 2009 IS
ACTUALLY ACROSS THE BOARD OF
ALL MAJOR ECONOMIES IN THE
WORLD THAT IS NOT THE GREATEST
SIGNAL TO ME AND OBVIOUSLY WE
ARE MOVING AWAY FROM A FRESH
ECONOMY IN GENERAL. SO THAT'S
THE ONE KATIA REGARDING THE
YORKER LISETTE I KIND OF AGREE
WITH NAVARRO THAT IT'S YOU KNOW
IT'S DANGEROUS TO SAY THIS TIME
IT'S DIFFERENT BUT I THINK THIS
TIME COULD BE DIFFERENT WERE
NOT IN A MAJOR INVERSION ALL
THIS FLAT YIELD CURVE IS SAYING
IS THAT THE FED IS WRONG
AND THAT THE MARK. IT'S RIGHT
AT THAT. IT'S GOING TO HAVE.
TUCKER IT'S MUCH MORE. THANKS
YOU KNOW OVER THE YEAH TOO SO I
AGREE
WITH IT, BUT IT'S NOT ONE OF
OUR GOALS ARE.
>>I WANT TO PLAY THAT CLIP FROM
NAVARRO ON A STEADY AND JAKE
TAPPER YESTERDAY ON CNN WHERE
HE DISPUTES THE IDEA OF THE
YIELD CURVE
ACTUALLY BEING INVERTED TAKE A
LISTEN TO THIS.
>>THE YIELD CURVE IS A LEADING
ECONOMIC INDICATOR, TECHNICALLY
WE DID NOT HAVE THE YIELD CURVE
INVERSION AN INVERTED YIELD
CURVE REQUIRES A BIG SPREAD
BETWEEN SHORT AND LONG WAS HE
HAS A SMALLER ONE CORRECT WILL
ALWAYS HAD IS A FLAT YOU COULD
WELL IT WAS INVERTED RUN ON
THAT THAT'S NOT TECHNICALLY AN
INVERSION IT'S A FLAT CURVE
WHICH IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL
OF ANY POSSIBILITY IN THIS
CASE. IN THIS CASE, THE FLAT
CURVE IS ACTUALLY THE RESULT OF
A VERY STRONG
TRUMP ECONOMY.
>>NOW I DO TAKE ISSUE WITH THAT
ANSWER FROM NAVARRO BECAUSE THE
YIELD CURVE BEING INVERTED IS
NOT A QUESTION OF HOW INVERTED
IT IS OR HOW LONG
AND FOR HOW LONG IT WAS
INVERTED TWICE LAST WEEK JASON.
READ A LISTEN.
>>I AGREE WITH YOU AND WHAT
YOU'RE SAYING ISN'T AN ARGUMENT
AGAINST WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT
ARE GOING AGAINST ONE TOMORROW
SAYING
IN INVERSION IS AN INVERSION
WEATHER IS 0, 1, BASIS POINTS
OR 3,
4 BASIS POINTS, YOU ETCETERA SO
IT'S ALMOST A MOOT POINT LEAD
WE'RE EVEN TALKING ABOUT
WHETHER HE WAS INJURED OR NOT
OF COURSE THAT WAS RIGHT.
THAT THAT DOESN'T CHANGE
YOU KNOW MY CONCLUSION RIGHT
THAT IT'S NOT NECESSARILY A
PREDICTOR OF A FULL BLOWN
RECESSION IT'S JUST SAYING THE
FED
NEEDS TO CATCH UP TO THE MARKET
THAT'S ALL IT'S A.
>>WHAT JASON WHAT DOES THAT
MEAN TO YOU OBVIOUSLY YOU'RE AN
ADVOCATE IT SOUNDS LIKE 4
CUTTING RATES EVEN MORE THE
MARKET PRICING IN A RATE CUT BY
25 BASIS POINTS AT E ONE OF THE
REMAINING MEETINGS THIS YEAR
WE'RE GOING TO GET 3 IN TOTAL
BEFORE THE YEAR WRAPS UP HOW
MUCH DO YOU I THINK THAT THAT
MEANS TO IT
AND DOWN RATES.
>>SO I'VE BEEN READING CALLS A
BECAUSE AS YOU KNOW YOU KNOW
HOW IT'S GOING TO BE GIVING HIS
ADDRESS THIS
VERY IMPORTANT JACKSON HOLE
KIND CONGREGATION MEETING.
EVERYTHING THAT I'VE READ IS
SAYING THAT IF POWELL DOESN'T
INDICATE A 50 BASIS POINT CUT
YOU KNOW COMING NEXT MEETING
THE MARKET'S GOING TO BE
DISAPPOINTED. I ACTUALLY TAKE
TAKE ISSUE WITH THAT I THINK
ALL WE NEED IS A HAND
OR A DECLARATION IN A SENSE
FROM POWER THAT HE WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SUPPORT THE EXPANSION WHICH
MEANS 25 OR 50 ALL WE NEED IS
ANOTHER RATE CUT WHICH IS WHICH
IS TOTALLY JUSTIFIABLE THAT
SHOULD HAPPEN AND I THINK THE
MARKET
WILL KIND OF SUSTAINED IT'S
IT'S RELATIVELY RECENT BULLISH
DISPOSITION WE DON'T NEED 50
50'S KIND OF SCARY.
>>I THINK OBVIOUSLY BEFORE THE
END OF THE YEAR MARKETS
ANTICIPATING IN TOTAL 75 BASIS
POINTS. I WILL BE CUT LET'S
TAKE A LISTEN TO ANOTHER SOUND
BITE THAT WE HEARD FROM PETER
IT'S LI AMONG THE HAWKISH
MEMBERS THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION OF HIS
ADMINISTRATION ABOUT HARRIS AND
THEIR EFFECT OR IN HIS OPINION
ON IT EFFECT MOST BUSINESSES
TAKE A LISTEN.
>>LET'S WAIT TILL DECEMBER FOR
15 BECAUSE WE BOUGHT THEM ALL
OF
OUR STUFF THAT'S GOING TO BE ON
THE SHELVES. AND WE DID IT IN
DOLLAR-BASED CONTRACTS WHICH
MEANS WE DON'T HAVE ANY
ABILITY. THE SHIFT THE BURDEN
TO THE CHINESE BUT WE'RE ALSO
DOING THIS PRESIDENT IS WE'RE
MOVING OUR SUPPLY CHAIN AND
MANUFACTURING OUT OF CHINA
AS FAST AS WE CAN SO WE'RE IN A
SITUATION HERE WHERE CONSUMERS
HAVE NOT BEEN HURT CHINA'S
DURING THE WHOLE BIRD
AND GUESS WHAT. CONSUMERS SPENT
TRILLION A YEAR.
IF YOU PUT 10% TARIFFS ON
300 BILLION THAT'S 30 THEY KNOW
HOW MUCH THAT IS THAT'S ONE 5TH
OF A PERCENT. A POSSIBLE IMPACT
YOUR AT ONE NOTHING.
>>JASON WE'D SEEN IT FROM A
POLICY GROUP JUST A FEW
WEEKS AGO THAT THE TARIFF
IMPACT THE MONTH OF JUNE ON
BUSINESSES AND CONSUMERS WAS
MORE THAN 3 BILLION DOLLARS.
THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS OUT OF
CHINA A SUPPLY CHAINS THAT THEY
SPENT DECADES BUILDING AND ARE
VERY INTRICATE PROCESS SEAS.
I THINK THAT'S WHY SOME OF
THESE BUSINESSES AND INVESTORS
ARE CONCERNED NO.
>>I'M MOVING THE SUPPLY CHAINS.
TO VIETNAM AND OTHER COUNTRIES
IN THAT REGION. FRANKLY WHAT TO
SPEAK OF BACK HOME
TO TO THE TO THE USA. IT'S NOT
A FLIP OF US ON THE LIGHT
SWITCH FROM FROM ON TO OFF IT
CAN TAKE YEARS TO MAKE THOSE
ADJUSTMENTS SO I'M ACTUALLY
KIND OF SURPRISED. HE WAS
DISCREDITS HIS OWN. YOU KNOW.
HE WAS DISCREDITED HIMSELF Y Z
THAT THIS ISSUE HE'S MAKING
SUCH A LANDER STATEMENT SAID
YEAH, YOU KNOW WE'RE JUST GOING
TO SWITCH WEISZ'S EVERYTHING'S.
YEAH I DID WHAT I COULD.
>>AND LOOK EVEN IF A COMPANY
DOES CHOOSE TO MOVE SOME OF ITS
PRODUCTION TO ANOTHER COUNTRY,
IT'S NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO
BE TO THE UNITED STATES DOESN'T
HAVE THE INFRASTRUCTURE TO
HANDLE THIS TYPE OF HIGH TECH
ATTACK. MANUFACTURING THINK
ABOUT GOPRO FOR EXAMPLE WE'VE
INTERVIEWED NICK WOODMAN THE
FOUNDER AND CEO GO PRO ON THE
SHOW COMPANY MOVING PRODUCTION
FOR US DOWN CAMERAS OUT OF
CHINA BUT NOT THE UNITED STATES
MOVING THEM TO MEXICO BECAUSE
IT IS CHEAPER THAN THE UNITED
STATES. I
JUST I WANT TO AND TALKING
ABOUT WHILE BECAUSE ARE THERE
REPORTS THAT THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION PRESIDENT
HIMSELF SAYING THAT IT COULD BE
A SLIGHT REPRIEVE FOR US
BUSINESSES DOING BUSINESS.
WITH THE CHINESE COMPANY.
HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THE
NARRATIVE AROUND WHILE ACTUALLY
BEING A SECURITY CONCERN VERSUS
A BARGAINING CHIP WHEN IT COMES
TO NEGOTIATIONS.
>>YOU KNOW WHAT IT SEEMS LIKE
TO ME IF IF YOU JUST ASKED ME
MY MY MY FIRST AS WELL AS SOME
SUN ECONOMIC RESEARCH AND
ANALYSIS.
IT'S REALLY. TRUMP IS SEEN THE
NEGATIVE EFFECTS
OF HIS OF HIS STANCE AND HIS
EMOTIONAL STANCE OF HIS
ECONOMIC STANCE TOWARDS THESE
MORE AND MORE AND MORE
TERRORISTS AND I THINK HE'S
FRANKLY STARTED TO CAVE IN A
LITTLE
I THINK NOTHING'S CHANGED FROM
WHAT WHAT WHILE WAY IS OR ISN'T
DOING WITH THIS, YOU KNOW
TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND YOU
KNOW POTENTIAL THEFT AND A
SECURITY CONCERNS. IT'S NOT
LIKE THEY'RE CHANGING ANYTHING
TO DO IT. IT'S JUST LISTEN TO
TRUMP'S MEETING WITH THESE
SECONDS TRUMP IS ACTUALLY YOU
KNOW STEPPING OUT OF HAVING
THESE CALLS WITH JAMIE DIAMOND
AND YOU KNOW SEALS MAJOR
BANKS HE'S HAVING DINNER WITH
TIM COOK. I THINK HE'S A
STARTING TO REACH OUT A LITTLE
BIT TO THESE EXECUTIVES WHO ARE
BEING AFFECTED BY THE STAIRS
AND SAY HEY WHAT YOU GUYS THINK
I SHOULD DO.
>>A LUCKY CERTAINLY GOT TO HAVE
THE BACKING OF THE BIGGEST IN
THE US JASON AS HE DOES RAMP UP