BE THERE NEXT GUEST JOINING US
NOW GOOD FRIEND OF THE SHOW
HERE ON CHEDDAR KEVIN KELLY IS
THE MANAGING PARTNER OF
BENCHMARK INVESTMENTS. KELLY
BREAK THIS DOWN FOR KEVIN WE
THINK ABOUT ALL OF THE
VOLATILITY THAT WE'VE SEEN HERE
ON THE DAY WHICH RAMP
UP THROUGHOUT THE SESSION
ULTIMATELY MOVING HIGHER BY
ABOUT 30% YEAR ON
THE DAY. YESTERDAY JUST
YESTERDAY WE WERE CELEBRATING
RECORD CLOSES FOR THE NASDAQ
AND THE S AND P WITH THE DOW
CLOSING ABOVE 29,000 FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MONTHS SINCE
SINCE FEBRUARY AND SO TODAY WE
SAW THIS MAJOR ACTIVITY THIS
MOVE LOWER THIS PLUNGE WHAT
HAPPENED FROM YOUR PERSPECTIVE.
>> WELL WHAT HAPPENED
WAS REALLY DIGEST SHEET PERIOD
BECAUSE IF YOU TAKE A STEP BACK
AND THINK ABOUT THAT
UNDERLYING. PAINTINGS THAT ARE
DRIVING THE MARKET IT WAS A LOT
OF MOMENTUM SOLUTION TO TAKE A
STEP BACK AND BREAK DOWN.
TESLA IS CURRENTLY TRADING AT A
125% IMPLIED VOLATILITY.
WHAT THAT NEEDS IS THE IS THE
OPTIONS MARKET.
PRICING THE
7.8 PER SE MOVE EVERY SINGLE
DAY FOR TESLA OVER THE NEXT 30
DAYS RIGHT, LET'S LOOK AT A
COMPANY
LIKE ZOO. IT'S TRADING. IT WAS
AS OF YESTERDAY'S CLOSE TRADING
200% UP ABOVE ITS 200 DAY
MOVING OUT.
RIGHT SO IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT
WAS HAPPENING IN MARKETS IS
THAT YOU HAVE
THIS HUGE EXTENT MOMENTUM TRADE
WHERE ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU KNOW
THE RELATIVE
STRAIGHT INDICATORS THE MOVIE
AVERAGES YOU GET ANY WAY YOU
SLICE OR DICE.
THERE WERE PARABOLIC MOVES
HIGHER AND THE S AND P 500 WAS
UP OVER 13% OVER 2
MONTHS RIGHT
AND SO YOU KNOW YOU'VE GOT TO
JUST TAKE A STEP BACK AND SAY
HEY TREES DON'T GROW TO THE SKY
AND NEITHER DOES THIS STOP.
>> AND SO ONE THING THAT I
PARTICULARLY WAS LOOKING AT
EARLIER TODAY, SURE THE JOBLESS
CLAIMS CAME IN BETTER THAN FOR
THE WEEK OVER WEEK BASIS AND
THEN ADDITIONALLY.
BESTING ESTIMATES THERE AND I
THINK THE MARKETS INITIALLY
JUMPED ON THAT
PRE MARKET. YOU SAW THE DOW GO
INTO POSITIVE TERRITORY AFTER
THE FUTURES ARE POINTING
NEGATIVE AND THEN YOU GET INTO
TODAY'S ACTIVITY AND ONE THING
THAT WAS KIND OF LINGERING IN
THE BACK OF MY MIND WAS COULD
WE ONCE AGAIN BE IN A CASE
WHERE GOOD NEWS ON THE ECONOMIC
FRONT IS ACTUALLY BAD NEWS FOR
THE MARKETS BECAUSE NOW THIS
LESSENS THE EXPEDIENCY WITH
WHICH THE CONGRESS AND
LAWMAKERS ARE GOING
TO LOOK AT A STIMULUS DEAL AND
PUSHING THAT THROUGH AS QUICKLY
AS POSSIBLE DESPITE AIRLINES
AND OTHER
MAJOR SECTORS THAT HAVE BEEN
CLAMORING FOR AN ADDITIONAL
WAVE OF FUNDING IN STIMULUS
AID.
>> YEAH, YOU KNOW WHAT WE'RE
AT ITEM. THERE'S GOING TO BE
REAL I WHETHER THE NEWS IS
GOOD OR.
>> I DON'T THINK CONGRESS IS
GOING TO MAKE A MOVE ONE WAY OR
ANOTHER BECAUSE WE'RE IN THE
FINAL
STRETCH IS OF THE GENERAL
ELECTION YEAR WHERE THERE.
SO MANY VARIABLES WHETHER
DONALD TRUMP IS COOL WE DO
REMAIN IN THE PRESIDENCY,
WHETHER THE DEMOCRATS CAN NOW.
RIGHT SO THERE ARE SO
MANY THINGS. HAPPENING ON A
STATE LOCAL AND FEDERAL LEVEL
THAT
NEITHER SIDE. ONE STUDY EVEN
SEEN BLINKING OR CAPITULATED TO
THE OTHER SIDE SO THIS IS THE
ULTIMATE BIPARTISAN PERIOD
RIGHT NOW WHERE OUR PARTISAN
PERIOD WHERE YOU'RE NOT GOING
TO GET EVEN THAT CLAY IT'S THE
OTHER
SIDE SO. I THINK YOU KNOW IF WE
TAKE A LOOK AT THE OPTIONS
MARKET BECAUSE YOU KNOW NORTH
STARTED US OFF AT THE TOP OF
THE HOUR TALKING ABOUT DAYS IS
AS OF A COUPLE DAYS AGO, I WAS
LOOKING AT THE OPTIONS MARKET
IT
WAS ONLY PRICING AT 3.2% MOVE
ON IN LIFE SHE DAY. BUT WHEN I
LOOK FURTHER OUT ON THAT.
♪
IT WAS SAYING THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO, YOU OVER THAT
TIME OF YEAR YOU CAN ACTUALLY
BE A 6 TO 8%
MOVE OVER THE MONTHS FOLLOWING
IT THAT'S BECAUSE IF YOU GET A
CONTESTED ELECTION RIGHT OR YOU
KNOW WE GET A SCENARIO WHERE
THERE'S IN A SO I THINK THAT IS
HE'S ALSO PLAYING INTO THAT
IN TODAY'S MOVES BECAUSE WHY
WOULD YOU NOT TAKE PROFITS OFF
THE TABLE GREAT RECESSION MOVES
OVER THE LAST 2 MONTHS IF
YOU'RE RICH DISH S AND CREW
TICKING ESTHER TAKE PROFITS WHY
NOT.
>> AND SO KEVIN, YOU KNOW IT
ALWAYS KIND OF BRINGS ME BACK
TO THE VERY FIRST TIME THAT YOU
AND I SPOKE WE I WAS IN A PAST
LIFE STILL A
NASDAQ AND WHEN WE WERE
SPEAKING, I BELIEVE IT WAS
RIGHT AROUND THE ELECTION YEAR
AS
WELL EITHER IN AND LEADING UP
TO THE ELECTION OR JUST BARELY
AFTER AND SO NOW AS WE FIND
OURSELVES IN THE GRIPS
OF ANOTHER GENERAL ELECTION AS
YOU WERE COMMENTING ON AND
BRINGING UP THERE. I WONDER
WHERE ARE YOU
KIND OF PRICING IN OR LOOKING
AT WHAT COULD HAPPEN IN
HISTORICALLY WHAT IS THE BEST
CASE
SCENARIO FOR THE MARKETS WHEN
WE THINK ABOUT THIS UPCOMING
ELECTION.
>> SO I THINK THE BEST CASE
SCENARIO FOR THE MARKETS
BASICALLY GETTING RESULTS ON
SENATE SEATS AND GETTING
RESULTS ON THE ON THE
PRESIDENT'S RIGHT BECAUSE
THAT'S WHAT HE DID TO ME
POLICY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU THINK
ABOUT. THIS CD IS SO.
WHAT I MEAN BY THAT IS THAT
IT'S THE POWER OF THE HEAD
RIGHT IN THE PRESIDENCY HAS SO
MUCH POWERS, ESPECIALLY BY
EXECUTIVE ACTION AND WHO THE
PRESIDENT GETS 2.2.
>> YOU KNOW THE.
>> THAT THE DIFFERENT SET 3
DIFFERENT SECRETARIES THAT HE
GETS IT THE POINT WHERE
YOU KNOW IF SHE WEIGHS WHICH
THE LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE,
THERE IS A PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE THAT IS
A WOMAN. SO FOR THE
LIBERTARIAN PARTY ON ALL 50
STATE BALLOTS. SO WE MAY GET
YOU KNOW 2020 YOU NEVER KNOW
YOU'RE GOING TO GET YOU MAY GET
A
FEMALE PRESIDENT. BUT ON THE
CDC YESTERDAY EVEN DID A
MORATORIUM.
ADDITIONS RIGHT HOW DOES THE
CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL HAVE
HER VIEW OVER RENTERS RIGHT I
MEAN
IT'S JUST.
>> WHAT'S THE DIFF YOU KNOW
I EVEN.
>> YEAH I THINK WHETHER IT'S
THE EPA WAS ARRESTED PART OF
ENERGY AND THE ISSUES I BELIEVE
WHAT THEY CAN
DO ANY LOOK AT THE DEPARTMENT
OF LABOR DAY. WE'RE THEY WERE
DICTATING. POLICY SECTION OF
ALL OF THAT
THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE
COMMISSION WHEN IT CAME TO
FINISH AREA MALLS. SO I YOU
KNOW THAT'S WHAT I THINK THE
MARKET IS LOOKING AT.
WHAT THEY SAID IT'S GOING TO
LOOK LIKE AND THAT WAY PEOPLE
WILL
BE ABLE PLACE WHERE THEY WANT
TO PUT THEIR CAPITAL
GOING FORWARD.
>> ABSOLUTELY AND SO LET'S KIND
OF TAKE THIS MORE COMPANY LEVEL
AS WELL BECAUSE I KNOW THAT YOU
MENTIONED TEST A
MOMENT AGO, APPLE WAS THE BIG
NAME OF THE DAY THAT WAS
CERTAINLY MOVING BUT NOT A TON
NEWS, THE NEWS ABOUT THE IOS
UPDATE THAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN
ENOUGH TO SEND SHARES LOWER BY
MORE THAN 5%.
>> SAYING SHE YOU KNOW THE
D D BIG PAIR ALL MOVES IS THAT
WE CURRENTLY ARE DAYS THE
FEDERAL RESERVE EA'S GAME ON
FOR ASSET INFLATION. HE'S SO
WHAT I MEAN BY IS YOU'RE NOT
GOING TO LOOK OUT.
60 COM MARKETS FOR 10 YEARS
BECAUSE YOU'RE GOING GET
NEGATIVE REAL TURNS RIGHT SO I
PUT MY MONEY DO THE 10 YEAR
TREASURY UP GETTING 0.6 6%
EVERY SINGLE YEAR GET INFLATION
IS GOING UP TO THE TUNE OF 2%
OR MORE EVERY SINGLE YEAR SO I
WOULD PUT MY MONEY AND STOPPED
I WOULD PUT MY MONEY THE APPLE
FOR 10 YEARS RIGHT SO THAT'S
THE WHOLE IDEA HERE
IS THAT NOW THAT THE RISK FREE
RATE IS 0 A DEBT COST LESS I
CAN
LEVERAGE RETURN, RIGHT SO THAT
ARE SO SO THAT'S WHAT'S
HAPPENING YOU'RE HAVING A
COMPOUND IN FACT IN MOVEMENT
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER YOU'RE
GETTING EPISODIC MOVES ANY WHY
SHOULD WHY IT WILL BE 5% WHILE
IT'S MOVING 5% BECAUSE IT'S A
FIXED INCOME REPLACEMENT NOW TO
UTILITY RIGHT EYE ON THAT AND
TRY TO GET A DIVIDEND FOR
10 YEARS AND HOPE I GET CAPITAL
APPRECIATION AND GET REAL
RETURNS.
>> WE'VE BEEN MARVELING AT THE
NUMBER OF NEW INVESTORS
THAT HAVE DOVE INTO THE MARKET
HAD FIRST AMID THIS PANDEMIC
AND PERHAPS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
SOME OF THE LOWS THAT WE
HAD SEEN IN LATE MARCH EARLY
APRIL IN SOME INDIVIDUAL NAMES
AND SO AS THE MARCH BACK UP HAS
BEEN SET
YOU SEE MORE INVESTORS HOP IN
OVER THAT TIME, BUT THEN
ADDITIONALLY ONCE WE GET TO
SOME OF THE PSYCHOLOGICAL
LEVELS LIKE WE WERE WATCHING AT
THE DOW 29,000 EVEN SOME NEW
ALL-TIME HIGHS FOR
APPLE FOR TESLA AND THEN THAT
LEADING TO SOME OF THE STOCK
SPLITS TO ONCE AGAIN MAKE
SHARES MORE AFFORDABLE WHERE IS
ITS THAT THE NEW INVESTOR THAT
HAS JUST ENTERED INTO THE RIVER
OR ALL OF AN
ELECTION YEAR FINDS THEMSELF AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND WHAT IS
THE BEST WAY FORWARD WITH IN
THAT MINDSET.
>> YEAH, SO SO IF YOU'RE NEW
INVESTOR. COMING IN AND I'M
GLAD THEY ARE.
THEMSELVES BECAUSE THERE'S NO
STRONGER POWER ON THIS EARTH
THAT COMPOUNDING RETURNS RIGHT
SO AS LONG AS THEY'RE INVESTING
EVERY SINGLE MONTH AND THEY CAN
DOLLAR COST AVERAGE.
THEY'RE GOING TO BE OK THAT
YOU'RE INVESTING FOR THE LONG
TERM NOW IF THEY'RE IF THEY'RE
SPECULATING IN TRADING DAY ALL
BETS ARE OFF RIGHT SO WHO KNOWS
WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN THAT
REGARD. BUT YOU'RE
THAT YOU'RE SEEING THE DEAL
WITH HIM BEST OR RIGHT NOW AT
THE NEW SPECULATORS SOMEBODY
TALK
ABOUT THEM, I'M GOING TO WEAR
TO BUY THINGS THEY KNOW AND
LIKE ED ARE NOT WORRIED ABOUT I
WERE HIM I'D
BUY THAT YOU KNOW 50 TIMES THIS
YEAR'S EARNINGS ARE 2022 YARDS
OR 2023, AND THEY DON'T CARE
BECAUSE THEY'RE INVESTING FOR
THE LONG TERM SO
FOR EXAMPLE YOU AND I BOTH ARE
I'M SURE YOU LOOK LITTLE 11
THAT RIGHT SO WE HAVE SOME OF
THEIR GEAR WRITING I LOOK AT
THAT STOCK ON ITS OWN AND LOOK
AT THE MARKET CAP AND VALUE
WAY SHE DID BUT IF YOU AND I
YOU KNOW KEEP BY LOU LEVY.
IT'S EVERY
SINGLE MARK. IF YOU FIND THE
STOP IN 10 YEARS. I THINK YOU
AND I ARE GOING TO HAVE A GREAT
TIME TO BE COCKTAILS OVER 8.
THAT'S THE WHOLE IDEA HERE IS
THAT THE NEW IN THAT
MISTER EAST BY WHAT THEY KNOW
AND LIKE LOOK AT DRAFTKINGS
MICHAEL JORDAN'S ON THE BOARD
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME.
SO YOU KNOW THEY'RE BIDEN AIDES
AND KNOW LIKE IN
YOUR BODY USE OVER THE LONG
TERM AND THEY'RE GOING TO DO
VERY WELL GOING FORWARD
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE LIKE I SAID
COMPOUNDING RETURNS.
>> JUST VERY QUICKLY, KEVIN
WE'VE GOT TO GO IN ABOUT 15
SECONDS BUT OUR SIZE AND SOME
OF THE BIGGEST NAMES BECAUSE OF
THE NEW WAVE OF INVESTORS THAT
IS PUSHED THEM.
MANY OF THE BIG NAMES ABOVE 70.
WE OF COURSE WHICH IS THE
THRESHOLD WHEN THAT RSI INDEX
IS
ABOVE 70. IT IS CONSIDERED
OVERBOUGHT AND SO ARE WE GOING
TO SEE A LOT OF KIND OF
FLEETING AWAY FROM OR MOVING
AWAY
FROM RATHER. THOSE BIG NAMES
BECAUSE OF THAT SENSE THAT IT
IS OVER BODDEN IT'S TIME TO
ROTATE.
>> I DON'T THINK YOU'RE GOING
TO SEE A GIANT OF SELLING
BECAUSE WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN
IS NEXT EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS
OR GO
AND TO REFLECT MANAGEMENT'S
JUST GUIDED IN THE PREVIOUS
ONE, SO I THINK WE'RE GOOD
DIGESTION PERIOD WHERE
SEPTEMBER IS NORMALLY HIGHER
ALSO MONTHS AND YOU KNOW WE'RE
GOING
TO GO INTO THE HOLIDAY SEASON A
THE BIG GAINS THAT.
ARE GOING TO BE THE NAMES WE'RE
GOING TO KNOW WHAT USE
ESPECIALLY ON THE E-COMMERCE
SITE RIGHT SO.
YOU KNOW FOR ME I I DON'T THINK
THERE'S GOING TO BE A GIANT CAT
CLASSMATE
PULLED OUT. YEAH, I DON'T KNOW
IF WE GO DOWN ANOTHER 5.10%
SURE BUT YOU CAN PUT YOUR
CAPITAL WORK. THERE WAS A LOT
OF PEOPLE HAVE I GOT A SHOPPING
LIST AND I'M THE GUY STOPS AT
IT, WHICH IS WHAT LOOK INDIA
FOR EXAMPLE I BUY IT AT 30'S
AROUND 4 SET UP FOR 85 JUST
INCLUDING RIGHT UP TO 5.15 ON
THE WAY TO LOOK COMES BACK
DOWN.
>> ALL RIGHT KEVIN KELLY
MANAGING PARTNER OF BENCHMARK
INVESTMENTS, I KNOW THAT 11
PARENTS ARE PROBABLY ON THAT
SHOPPING