BARBARA DURRANT
CEO AND CHIEF INVESTMENT
OFFICER AT CAPITAL PARTNERS, A
BAR, BUT IT'S GOOD TO SEE YOU
THIS MORNING AS SO THESE WEEKLY
JOBLESS CLAIMS
A LITTLE BIT BETTER THAN
EXPECTED AND GDP BASICALLY IN
LINE WITH FORECASTS WHEN YOU
MAKE OF THESE NUMBERS.
>> WELL I THINK THE MARKET IS
REALLY THE NUMBERS ONE WAY OR
THE OTHER BECAUSE THIS IS
REALLY LOOKING BACKWARDS IN
THE MARKET CLEARLY WITH THE
SPEED AND THE FEROCITY OF
MOVING FORWARD IS LOOKING
THROUGH THE 2ND HALF
I THINK YOU KNOW ONE OF YOUR
GUESTS ALLUDED TO THAT BECAUSE
WE'VE GOT A NUMBER OF THINGS IN
PLACE WE'VE GOT INTO TREMENDOUS
FISCAL STIMULUS COMING WE DON'T
KNOW IF THAT 2 TRILLION DOLLAR
PACKAGE THAT BIDEN IS PROPOSING
WILL GET THROUGH EVEN THOUGH
THE DEMOCRATS NOW CONTROL
CONGRESS YOU'VE GOT
THE SAID RE COMMITTING EVERY
TIME THEY GET A CHANCE TO
KEEPING INTEREST RATES LOW,
WHICH IS KEY AND YOU'VE GOT THE
VACCINE ROLLOUT
YOU KNOW WHICH IS GOING A
LITTLE BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
EXPECTED. BUT HOPEFULLY BY SOME
AND LARGE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE
WHO WANT TO GET VACCINATED WILL
BE THE MARKET HAS BEEN LOOKING
THROUGH THE 2ND WE'RE EXPECTING
A MUCH STRONGER
ECONOMIC REBOUND. SO IN THE
NEAR TERM THOSE JOBLESS CLAIMS
ARE GOING TO STAY HIGH. THERE'S
NO QUESTION ABOUT IT BECAUSE
MUCH OF THE ECONOMY.
IT'S STILL IN SHUTDOWN MODE
PEOPLE ARE STILL VERY CAUTIOUS
AND LET'S FACE IT A YEAR OF
YES. I MEAN PEOPLE STILL ARE
GOING TO HAVE PTSD SO IT'S
GOING TO TAKE A WHILE YOU KNOW
TO CHANGE BEHAVIOR, IT'S GOT TO
REALLY BE SAFE FOR THEM TO COME
OUT AND START SPENDING FREELY
AGAIN IN THE CONSUMER AREA.
>> I THINK THAT'S A GOOD POINT
AND OBVIOUSLY IT'S GOING TAKE A
LONG TIME FOR US TO CLAW BACK
ALL OF
10'S OF MILLIONS OF JOBS
COLLECTIVELY THAT WERE LOST AT
THE ONSET OF THE PANDEMIC AND
THEN ON NET A 140,000 JOBS THAT
WERE LOST IN
THE MONTH. DECEMBER I DO WANT
TO JUST ISOLATE THE GDP NUMBERS
OUT FOR A MOMENT, SO 4%
ANNUALIZED GROWTH IN THE 4TH
QUARTER COMING OFF THE 3RD
QUARTER WHICH WAS THE BEST
ON RECORD. BUT THAT WAS AFTER
THE 2ND QUARTER WHICH WAS THE
WORST ON RECORD SO COLLECTIVELY
IT
DOES APPEAR. THE U.S. ECONOMY
SHRANK 3 AND A HALF PERCENT
LAST YEAR IN 2020 THAT WOULD
PUT IT ON PACE FOR THE WORST
GDP CONTRACTION THAT WE'VE SEEN
SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR
WAR AND EVEN THOUGH WE DO
ANTICIPATE TO YOUR POINT
BARBARA ON THAT MILLIONS OF
JOBS, WE'LL BE ABLE TO BE ADDED
TO THIS.
I MEAN AT LEAST IN THE 2ND HALF
OF THIS YEAR WE WILL SEE
WILL BE BELOW COLLECTIVELY.
THE ESTIMATE IS AS PREPANDEMIC
LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT, HOW LONG
DO YOU SEE THIS RECOVERY.
TAKING PLACE.
>> WELL IT OUT CHRIS AND THESE
ARE EXCELLENT QUESTIONS BECAUSE
THAT IS THE UNKNOWN BECAUSE SO
MUCH IS CONTROLLING
THE PANDEMIC I MEAN RIGHT NOW
WE'RE STILL AT 6.7%
UNEMPLOYMENT THAT'S ALMOST
DOUBLE WHAT
IT WAS. YOU KNOW, JEFF THE
BARELY A YEAR AGO AT 3 AND A
HALF AND WHAT'S HAPPENED
BECAUSE THIS HAS GONE ON SO
LONG YOU REALLY PROBABLY HAD
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO THE
ECONOMY IN TERMS OF JOBS AND
THEY'RE GOING TO COME BACK
QUICKLY. SO I THINK WE'LL HAVE
A STRONG REBOUND IN THE 2ND
HALF OF THE YEAR, BUT IT'S
GOING TO TAKE A WHILE PROBABLY
WILLING TO 22 BEFORE RECOVER
ALL THOSE LOST JOBS.
YOU KNOW A LOT OF PEOPLE NOT
CAPTURE THOSE NUMBERS TO STOP
LOOKING FOR WORK AND SO WE'VE
GOT TO SEE REAL JOB CREATION,
LET'S NOT FORGET SOME 4 YOU
KNOW I THINK 400,000 JOBS ARE
SMALL BUSINESSES 4,000 EXCUSE
ME HAVE GONE OUT OF BUSINESS
AND THAT'S A MAIN DRIVER OF
JOBS. SO WE WILL SEE
IT'S NOT TAKE A WHILE I THINK
WE WANT TO 22.
>> INVESTMENT
OFFICER ID TO GET YOUR TAKE ON
THE STOCK MARKET BECAUSE WE DO
KNOW
IT'S A WILD RIDE AND WE'RE
STILL NEAR RECORD HIGHS BUT A
PRETTY SHARP PULLBACK
YESTERDAY, THE WORST DAY THAT
WE BOOKED HAS SINCE GOING BACK
TO OCTOBER AND A LOT OF
NEW FACTORS IN THIS MARKET IN
ADDITION TO THE CORONAVIRUS IN
ADDITION TO THE DIRE JOBS
PICTURE AND THAT IS THAT HAS
BEEN PLAYING OUT FOR MONTHS DOW
AND
THAT IS THE ENTRANCE OF SOME OF
THESE DAY TRADERS PROPPING UP
HEAVILY
SHORTED STOCKS BY TRIPLE DIGIT
PERCENTAGE GAINS THAT IS DOES
THE ANY IMPACT ON THE OVERALL
SENTIMENT OF THE MARKET IS THAT
A RISK FACTOR FOR THE S AND P
500 EVEN IF YOU OWN THAT
POSSIBLY IN YOUR 4 O ONE K FOR
INSTANCE.
>> YEAH, WELL I THINK PEOPLE
WHO DON'T GAMESTOP WOULD BE
VERY HAPPY RIGHT NOW THEY
SHOULD BE SELLING THAT YOU
KNOW, BUT THE WEATHER'S THERE'S
A COUPLE QUESTIONS THERE IS
VERY INTERESTING BECAUSE WHAT'S
HAPPENING WITH HE'S HEAVILY
SHORTED AREAS WHERE
YOU KNOW SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE
READ IT YOU KNOW AND THE NEED
FOR BELONGING AND A LACK OF
COMMISSION DOES AND PEOPLE ARE
HAVING FUN WITH THIS IS A
DANGEROUS GAME BECAUSE THEY'RE
FORGETTING THAT THE STAFF CAN
COME DOWN, BUT I THINK FOR THE
EYE HE OWES THAT HAVE GONE UP
60%. YOU KNOW THE THE GAME'S
TOP OF THEM
PEOPLE ARE FEELING A LITTLE BIT
SPECULATIVE AND IT IS
HOWEVER, YOU KNOW I DO THINK WE
ARE IN A SECULAR BULL MARKET,
THE MARKET HAS RUN THE FAST AND
FURIOUS, THERE'S ALWAYS USUALLY
A PAUSE AND THAT'S I THINK
PEOPLE ARE AFRAID OF
RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF THAT
HAPPENING BUT THE FACT IS WITH
THE FACT IS WE JUST TALKED
ABOUT THE USUAL QUITE ENOUGH
IF THEM, THERE'S ALSO A LOT OF
CASH ON THE SIDELINE A LOT OF
CASH AND BONDS IF YOU LOOK AT
THE LAST 10 YEARS THERE'S BEEN
SOME 3 TRILLION IN SAVINGS.
MOST OF THAT ALMOST 95% HAS
GONE INTO BONDS AND BONDS ARE
PROBABLY NOT GOING TO DO WELL
THIS YEAR BECAUSE INTEREST
RATES WILL PROBABLY BACK UP A
LITTLE BIT AS THE CAR.
I MEAN YOU KNOW GAIN STRENGTH
AS YOU CAN SEE A LOT OF CASH
COMING IN OFF THE MARKET SO I
THINK YOU STILL HAVE TO
BE INVESTED. YOU KNOW, BUT
THERE'S A LOT OF WORRY RIGHT
NOW UNDERSTANDABLY BECAUSE
THINGS HAVE CALM FAST AND
FURIOUS, BUT I THINK THAT
JUST MEANS THEY A BIT OF A
PAUSE COULD BE A BIT OF A
PULLBACK I DON'T SEE ANY
CORRECTION BECAUSE THERE'S
REALLY UNDERLINE FED LIQUIDITY
AND THE FISCAL STIMULUS COMPANY
COMING REALLY PROVIDE DOWNSIDE
SUPPORTING THIS MARKET AND WE
CAN'T FORGET THAT THAT IS THE
BIG DRIVER
RIGHT NOW.
>> OKAY SO LET'S ADD REALLY IN
ON THAT A LITTLE BIT BARBARA
BECAUSE IT DOES APPEAR THAT YOU
OUR LONG-TERM BULLISH ON THIS
MARKET MANY OF THE MARKET GUESS
THAT WE TALK TO YOU OR
LONG-TERM BULLISH AS WELL BUT
FOR AN AMERICAN YOUR ANXIETY
LEVEL MIGHT BE RISING THE COURT
OVER THE COURSE OF THESE PAST
FEW DAYS NOT JUST BECAUSE
BECAUSE OF THE CORONAVIRUS NOT
JUST BECAUSE OF THE JOBS MARKET
BUT NOW BECAUSE THIS
WORD BUBBLE IS USED WHEN WE
TALK ABOUT THE OVERALL STOCK
MARKET AND WAS HAPPY. THESE
MEANS INDIVIDUAL NAMES IS THAT
A SIGN THAT THE
OVERALL MARKET IS LOOKING AT
BUBBLE TERRITORY. SO FOR OUR
VIEWERS I JUST WANT YOU TO
BREAK THAT DOWN
COLLECTIVELY ON THE S AND P THE
NASDAQ AND THE DOW DO WE LOOK
LIKE WE'RE IN A BUBBLE.
>> OVERALL NOW
AND BECAUSE ONE THING I THINK
THAT WHEN YOU'VE GOT SUCH LOW
INTEREST RATES YOU KNOW AND THE
PROSPECT OF THE ECONOMY PICKING
UP. YOU KNOW THAT THAT
IS WHAT DRIVES EARNINGS DRIVE
THE MARKET SO I THINK IT CAN
SUPPORT HIGH VALUATIONS HOWEVER
FROM IS WHEN YOU HAVE FRESH
CASH WHERE DO YOU LOOK AND SO
YOU'RE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SEE
THIS CHURN AND THERE ARE BUBLIK
STOCKS LIKE THERE'S NO QUESTION
THE GAME STOP FOR THEM
WORLD ARE IN BUBBLE TERRITORY.
BUT THAT I THINK IS A VERY
SPECIAL CASE AND REFLECTING THE
RISE OF THE
RETAIL INVESTOR WHICH IS HERE
TO STAY SO NO, I DON'T THINK
WE'RE IN BUBBLE TERRITORY.
I THINK WE ARE OKAY BUT
I THINK IT'S TOUGHER RIGHT NOW,
YOU KNOW EVEN IF YOU LOOK AT
WHEN THE ECONOMY OPENS UP THE
LOOK AT THE CYCLICALLY
SENSITIVE THEY'VE RUN UP.
YOU KNOW YOU LOOK AT THE ONES
THAT HAVE BEEN TRASHING ON THAT
LITTLE TRAVEL LEISURE THESE ARE
LACI WHICH ARE STILL UNDER
TREMENDOUS PRESSURE AND THE
INDUSTRY BUT SHOULD START TO DO
BETTER. SO A LOT OF THIS IS
THIS KIND OF IN THE
SHORT RUN IN THE STOCK YOU
KNOW, BUT I DON'T THINK YOU
SELL YOU TRIM BACK POSITIONS
WHERE YOU HAD MAJOR GAINS BUT I
THINK YOU STAY. THE COURSE
AND I THINK WE'RE NO NOT
ANYWHERE NEAR BUBBLE TERRITORY.
YOU HAVE TO VALUATION A LOT
HIGHER THAN THEY ARE TODAY.
>> ALL RIGHT OUR BARBARA WE DO