WANT TO BRING IN OUR NEXT GUEST
PATRICK HEALY
WAS THE FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT
AT CALIBER FINANCIAL PARTNERS,
PATRICK, GOOD TO SEE YOU THIS
LET'S START PERHAPS WITH SOME
OF THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS THAT
WE'RE GOING TO BE GETTING IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR WHICH ONE ARE
YOU GOING TO BE WATCHING
CLOSEST.
>> SO BACK TO PROVOKE GOOD TO
BE WITH YOU I
AM HIGHLY HE FOCUSED ON
INFLATION NUMBER THAT'S WHAT'S
DRIVING FED POLICY THAT'S
WHAT'S DRIVING FINANCIAL
MARKETS AND YOU KNOW WE A PRINT
OF 4.2% IN APRIL AS YOU
MENTIONED A MINUTE AGO WE'RE
LOOKING AT EXPECTATIONS OF
4.7%. THE TREND IS REALLY
WHAT'S. YEAH
FED POLICY AND AND SORT OF THE
EXPECTATIONS THAT ARE BEING PUT
ON THE STOCK MARKET AND REALLY
ALL RISK BASSETT SO THAT'S
THAT'S THE NUMBER I'M FOCUSED
ON LESS SO THE EMPLOYMENT
NUMBER. BUT WILL BE INTERESTING
TO
SEE HOW THAT TREND CONTINUES IF
THE NUMBER MEETING EXPECTATIONS
ARE WHY HIGHER THAN THAT.
I THINK WE'VE
ABOVE 5% FOR YOU'RE GOING TO
YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MORE AND
MORE SCRUTINY OVER THE FED
AND MORE RHETORIC DISCUSSING
WHETHER THEY HAVE TO ACT SOONER
THAN THEY WOULD OTHERWISE LIKED
IT.
>> AND
SO IT'S.
>> HARD TO HAVE THE INFLATION
CONVERSATION WITHOUT THE
CONTEXT OF THE WAY JUST
CONVERSATION
AS WELL AND SO WITH THAT IN
MIND WHAT HAVE YOU SEEN ON THE
WAGES FRONT AND THE MOST RECENT
NOT JUST MONTHLY
REPORT, BUT EVEN IN SOME OF THE
OTHER AREAS WHERE YOU'VE BEEN
ABLE TO LOOK ACROSS PARSE
THROUGH
WAGE DATA AND UNDERSTAND HOW
THAT IS PAIRING WITH INFLATION
DATA THAT WERE SET TO GAIN
LATER ON TODAY.
>> THAT'S A GREAT WAGE
INFLATION. I VIEW AS A
POSITIVE.
TO SOME EXTENT OBVIOUSLY
BECAUSE IT ALLOWS PEOPLE TO
KIND OF RAISE THEIR STANDARD OF
LIVING THERE
THE DEBATE OVER WHETHER OF SOME
OF THE
POLICIES ARE. EXTENDED
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE ARE
CREATING SOME OF THAT WAGE
INFLATION IN FORCING.
EMPLOYERS TO OFFER A HIGHER
WAGE TO ATTRACTING EMPLOYEES
BACK
TO WORK. I THINK THAT TO SOME
EXTENT TO SOME LEVEL OF WAGE
INFLATION
IS GOOD THE ECONOMY AND FOR
CONSUMERS IN THE UNITED
THAT'S A WELCOME DEVELOPMENT AS
LONG AS WITH WITHIN A CERTAIN
RANGE, BUT SOME OF THE OTHER
INFLATION
THAT REALLY PAX HOUSEHOLD FOOD
PRICES, ENERGY PRICES, THOSE OF
THOSE EFFECT ALL AMERICANS AND
SO ANYONE THAT'S INTO THE
GROCERY STORE RECENTLY OR FILL
GAS TANK IS STARTING TO SEE
THOSE NUMBERS TICK UP AND THAT
REALLY IMPACT PEOPLE'S
PURCHASING POWER. SO IT KIND OF
BALANCING THE 2 OF THOSE SO
WAGE INFLATION. I THINK IT'S
GOOD FOR CONSUMERS, IT ALLOWS
THEM TO. RAISE THEIR STANDARD
OF LIVING BUT AT WHAT
AND AND REALLY IT'S IT'S THAT'S
WHAT'S DEBATE. THAT'S GOING
ON RIGHT.
>> AND JUST ONE MORE QUESTION
AND A FAIRLY SIMPLE BUT WOULD
LOVE TO GET YOUR PERSPECTIVE.
IT IS THE BIGGER KIND
OF RISK HERE WHEN WE THINK
ABOUT THE BASKET OF GOODS AND
SERVICES THAT ARE WEIGHED AS
PART OF INFLATION IS IT ON THE
PRODUCT CIDERS ON THE SERVICE
SIDE.
>> REALLY DEPENDS ON WHO YOU
WHETHER YOU'RE MORE CONSUMER
SERVICES OR PRODUCTS, BUT
REALLY I THINK IT'S BOTH.
YOU KNOW THE PEOPLE ARE
STARTING TO GET BACK TO
TRAVELING MORE NOW WITH THE
ECONOMY IS REOPENING.
IF YOU SHOP FOR AN AIRLINE
TICKET YOU'RE SEEING THOSE
PRICES ARE GOING IF YOU'RE
TO A VACATION WITH YOUR FAMILY
OR EVEN COMMUTING TO WORK YOU
SEE IN GAS PRICES RISE.
REALLY IT FOR FOR WHETHER FOOD
PRICES OR RETAIL.
SOME OF THAT IS DISCRETIONARY
AND SOME OF IT IS IS IT'S KIND
OF
A NECESSITY. SO I REALLY THINK
IT'S IT'S FULL OF GOODS AND
SERVICES AND REALLY HOW IT
IMPACTS YOU INDIVIDUALLY.
BENSON, HOW WHAT KIND OF
CONSUMER WE ARE YEAH GREAT
CONTACTS, THERE.
>> YOU KNOW AS WE'RE CONTINUING
TO THINK THROUGH THE IN THE
JOBLESS CLAIMS THE EMPLOYMENT
SITUATION AS WELL AS A WHOLE
YOU KNOW WE'VE BEEN ABLE TO
KIND OF SEE THIS
FOUR-WEEK AVERAGE CONTINUE TO
DIP LOWER AND THAT IS A
POSITIVE TREND. WHAT
SPECIFICALLY SHOULD BE KEEPING
OUR EYE OUT FOR IN THE JOBLESS
CLAIMS DATA.
>> YEAH I WOULD SAY THAT IT'S
JUST FOLLOWING THE TREND
BECAUSE ANY ONE
DATA POINT WELL IT'S IT'S
IMPORTANT IS NOT NEARLY AS
SIGNIFICANT AS THE TREND AND SO
THAT WOULD REALLY BE A COMMENT
I WOULD MAKE NOT
ONLY FOR JOBLESS CLAIMS BUT
ALSO FOR INFLATION AND
REALLY ALL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
SO YOU KNOW FOLLOWING THE TREND
MAKING SURE THAT THOSE NUMBERS
ARE IN REVERSING THEMSELVES.
WE SEE A SPIKE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
CLAIMS I'D BE VERY SURPRISED TO
SEE THAT I THINK THE TREND HAS
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL MONTHS I WOULD
EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND THEN JUST LAST WEEK
PATRICK, HOW WOULD YOU EXPECT
THE FED TO.
>> WE'LL BE READING INTO THE
DATA THAT THEY'VE ALREADY GOT
TO THIS POINT IN TIME
AND EVEN ON THE DATA THAT WE'RE
GOING TO RECEIVE TODAY, HOW
THEY'RE GOING TO BE DIGESTING
THIS.
>> YEAH THAT'S REALLY THE HOT
BUTTON TOPIC OF OF THE MOMENT
RIGHT
YOU YOU SAW THE FED ANNOUNCED
EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT THEY'RE
GOING TO DISCONTINUE ONE OF
THEIR BOND
FACILITIES THAT WAS EXPECTED.
BUT I THINK THERE TRYING TO
SIGNAL TO THE MARKET AND GET
THE REACTION INVESTORS AND
STUFF AND THE STOCK MARKET IN
GENERAL. IF THEY
START TO YOU KNOW MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO MONETARY POLICY, HOW
IS THE MARKET GOING TO REACT TO
THAT. I YOU KNOW YOU HEAR THEM
SAY THAT WE'RE NOT STICK ABOUT
WHAT GOES ON IN THE STOCK
MARKET, BUT I DON'T BELIEVE
THAT AT ALL
I THINK THEY'RE THEY'RE CLOSELY
WATCHING INVESTORS REACTION AND
SO YOU KNOW IF IF THE NUMBER
COMES IN THIS WHILE THAT AGAIN
THIS IS AN IMPORTANT DATA IT'S
IT'S INDICATIVE OF THE TREND
CONTINUING TO TAKE HIGHER FOR
INFLATION. YOU KNOW THEY KEEP
STICKING TO THEIR GUNS AND SAY
HEY IT'S TRANSITORY YOU KNOW
THERE'S A REOPENING TRADE
GOING ON AND SO EACH DATA POINT
IS IMPORTANT THE ONE WILL
RECEIVE THIS MORNING IS ALSO
IMPORTANT BUT IT'S REALLY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS AND SO
THE THAT NUMBER STARTS TO RUN
HOT.
EXCEED EXPECTATIONS. THEY'RE
GOING TO BE FORCED TO ACT IT
WOULD NOT GOING TO IGNORE FOR
MUCH LONGER AND SO I THERE ARE
A LOT OF CLOSE FULL
EYES ON THE NUMBER THIS MORNING
BO