I'M JOINED NOW BY JASON WARE
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT
ALBION FINANCIAL GROUP I JASON
IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU THIS
MORNING SO TECH STOCKS
AS SIR GAINING OUT OF THE GATE
HERE THE NASDAQ QUITE NOT AT A
AT A RECORD HIGH. BUT THE SNP
OPENING AT ANOTHER ALL
I'M HIGH AS THOSE BOND YIELDS
ACTUALLY DO CALM DOWN.
DO YOU THINK THAT THESE GROWTH
PLACE SOME OF THESE TECH NAMES
ARE STILL ATTRACTIVE AT THESE
LEVELS.
>> GOOD MORNING CHRISTINE GOOD
TO BE WITH YOU AND WE DO THINK
I THINK GIVE A LONGER TERM TIME
HORIZON, YOU KNOW OWNING THE
APPLES IN THE MICROSOFT
AND ALPHABET ADOBE'S OF THE
WORLD STILL MAKE SENSE OF THESE
ARE BUSINESSES THAT ARE STILL
COMPOUNDING THEIR PER
SHARE FUNDAMENTALS. THAT IS
REVENUES AND PROFITS AND
CASH FLOWS.
>> AT A RATE WELL ABOVE THE
MARKET AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT
WE'VE
HAD ABOUT 6 TO 8 MONTHS OF THE
STOCKS IN GOOGLE'S THAT ABOUT
AN ALL-TIME HIGH MIKE
STOP-START MOVE HIGHER BUT BY
AND LARGE THESE LARGE CAP TECH
IN AN
ASIDE LONG. I DON'T FOR THE
BETTER PART OF LAST 2 OR 3
QUARTER. SO WE'VE SEEN A
CONSOLIDATION PHASE. MEANWHILE,
THE BUSINESS CONTINUES TO
COMPOUND ON ITSELF. I THINK IF
YOU BELIEVE THE SECULAR DURABLE
GROWTH OF THESE COMPANIES OVER
THE NEXT 1, 3, 5, YEARS WHICH
WE DO. NOW SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
TIME TO BE IN THEM IF YOU'RE
NOT IN THEM AND HOLD THEM IF
YOU STILL HAVE THEM WHICH WE
ARE DOING FOR CLIENTS HOW DO
>> MAKE SENSE OF THESE JOBLESS
NUMBERS,
JASON STEELE ELEVATED AND IF
YOU ARE OUT OF EMPLOYMENT YOU
CAN FILE TECHNICALLY AT ANY TO
COLLECT THE STATE UNEMPLOYMENT
BENEFITS SO MAYBE THERE IS A
DELAY BUT I THINK PEOPLE
SCRATCHING
THEIR HEADS. WE SAW EVERY
SECTOR IN THE JOBS REPORT FOR
MARCH THAT WE GOT LAST FRIDAY
SEEN JOB GAINS
YET PEOPLE FILING FOR THE FIRST
TIME UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS IS
STILL HIGH WHY IS THAT.
>> YEAH IT'S A REALLY GREAT
QUESTION AND I THINK THE FIRST
THING YOU'D WANT TO DO IN THE
FIRST THING I DO IS AN
ECONOMIST SAYS I BACK OUT WHAT
WOULD BE KIND OF A
NATURAL RATE. FIRST TIME
CLAIMS AND THAT SOMEWHERE YOU
KNOW IF YOU'RE IN A RECOVERY
DURING A STRONG RECOVERY YOU
CAN EXPECT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
25300,000. FILING
EACH WEEK, SO IF YOU BACKED OUT
THAT WOULD LEAVE AROUND 400
TO 450,000 FOLKS THAT ARE FIRE
FILING ABOVE WHAT WHAT WHAT I
WOULD THE SITTER TO BE A STRONG
ECONOMY AND OF COURSE WE'RE NOT
QUITE IN THE STRONG ECONOMY YET
WE'RE RECOVERING BACK
TO PREPARE MC LEVELS WE STILL
HAVE A HOLE TO FILL IN TERMS OF
THE OUTPUT GAP IN TERMS OF GDP.
AND CLEARLY THE
LABOR MARKET, IT IS A LAGGING
INDICATOR. SO IT'S GOING TO
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THAT TO
CATCH UP TO THE ECONOMY.
THAT'S THAT'S A NATURAL STATE
OF THINGS THAT SAID WE ARE
STILL AT A VERY HIGH
HIGH LEVEL AND I THINK THAT'S
BECAUSE OF THE UNIQUE
DESTRUCTION OF THE PANDEMIC HAD
IN CERTAIN PARTS OF THE ECONOMY
WHETHER
IT'S LEISURE OR TRAVEL OR
RETAIL THOSE PARTS OF
OF THE LABOR ECONOMY ARE STILL
COMING BACK THEY'RE GOING TO
COME BACK SLOWLY UNTIL WE GET A
FULL RECOVERY WHICH OF COURSE
IS WHAT FOLKS IN WASHINGTON ARE
TRYING TO PURSUE WITH ALL THIS
FISCAL SPENDING WE'RE STILL
GOING TO BE ELEVATED JOBLESS
CLAIMS FOR THE TIME BEING I
WOULD SAY ANOTHER 6 MONTHS OR
SO BEFORE WE SEE THAT COME DOWN
INTO AN AREA WHERE WE WOULD SAY
YOU KNOW WHAT THIS IS LOOKING
MORE LIKE AN EXPANSION NOW.
>> INTERESTING AS 6 MONTHS THAT
IS A WHILE AND I THINK DOES
GO JASON TO THIS FACTOR THAT
WE'VE BEEN MONITORING FOR A
YEAR NOW THIS DISCONNECT
BETWEEN
MAIN STREET AND WALL STREET
THAT IS OBVIOUSLY STILL VERY
REAL AND PALPABLE
I DO WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT SOME
OF THAT FISCAL SPENDING SO 2.3
TRILLION DOLLAR INFRASTRUCTURE
PLAN THAT JOE BIDEN HAS
UNVEILED
WANTS TO PAY FOR IT BY RAISING
THE CORPORATE TAX RATE TO 28%
FROM 21% BUT RECENTLY SAYING
THAT HE IS WILLING TO PAY
POTENTIALLY COMPROMISE ON THAT
CORPORATE TAX ROOM, IT'S HIKE
TO 25%
PER SE OR 28% AS HE
ORIGINALLY PROPOSED WHAT WOULD
THAT DO TO THE ECONOMY WOULD IT
BE A NET POSITIVE EFFECT.
I KNOWING THAT MORE THAN
2 TRILLION DOLLARS IS GOING TO
GO INTO INFRASTRUCTURE,
SPENDING.
>> THE WAY
I LOOK AT THAT IS THE NET
STIMULUS THE MONEY BEING SPENT
ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND THE TAXES
BEING RAISED TO PAY
FOR THAT IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT
THE
BIDEN PROPOSAL LAID OUT WHAT
THEY'RE SAYING IS THEY'RE GOING
TO RAISE IT ABOUT A
125 BILLION IN TAXES OVER
THE NEXT 50 YEARS BUT THEY'RE
GOING TO SPEND AROUND
250 BILLION A YEAR OVER THE
NEXT 8 YEARS ON INFRASTRUCTURE,
SO THAT'S
A NET STIMULUS TO THE ECONOMY
OF AROUND HALF A PERCENT, MAYBE
A
LITTLE MORE. A LITTLE MORE THAN
THAT TO GDP. THAT'S LIKE THE
REALLY FLAT BACK OF THE
ENVELOPE WAY TO THINK
ABOUT IT. NOW IF YOU WANT TO
GET MORE DYNAMIC WHICH I PREFER
TO DO YOU ALSO HAVE TO ASK
WHAT IS THE MULTIPLIER OF THAT
SPENDING IN THE ECONOMY OF THAT
INFRASTRUCTURE, SPENDING
AND MOST ECONOMISTS THAT HAVE
LOOKED AT THIS FOR DECADES WILL
TELL YOU THAT THERE IS A VERY
HIGH MULTIPLIER THAT IS THE
AMOUNT OF EXCESS
GDP THAT'S CREATED BY THAT
SPENDING SO I THINK IT'S
ABSOLUTELY STIMULATIVE TO RAISE
TAXES BUT THEN SPEND A TON OF
THAT IN 2 CRITICAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
THAT IS FAR OVERDUE IN THIS
COUNTRY SO DEFINITELY A PRO
GROWTH. INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN I
THINK RAISING TAXES FROM 21% TO
25 IF YOU'RE JOE MANCHIN OR 28
IF IF YOU'RE
THE FURTHER LEFT IN THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY IS OK WE'RE AT
35 STATUTE
UNDER OBAMA AND THE ECONOMY DID
JUST FINE THE STOCK MARKET DID
JUST LIKE JUST IT'S NOT
SOMETHING TO WORRY ABOUT IN
MARCH.
>> OKAY, I THINK VERY IMPORTANT
FOR A LOT OF INVESTORS OUT
THERE AS WE SEE OF COURSE ADD
THE CONFLICT TEEN AT UNIONS
THAT
END SOME DATA AS TO WHERE IS
JUST THE SWEET SPOT FOR THIS
CORPORATE TAX RATE ON THE
INDUSTRIALS PRESUMABLY THE DOW
WOULD OUT PERFORM IF WE GET
THIS
INFRASTRUCTURE BUILT PASSED
THROUGH CONGRESS PROBABLY GOING
TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
SUMMER TO SEE THE
AT AT BUT YET WE SEE THE DOW
UNDERPERFORMING TODAY STILL
NEAR A WRECK HER HIGH HOW DO
YOU BASICALLY ALLOCATE
YOUR PORTFOLIO REPOSITION A
URINE. THAT'S INVESTMENTS.
JASON E IF THEY ARE LONG-TERM
INVESTMENTS UP FOR THIS
POTENTIAL 2.3 TRILLION DOLLAR
PLAN.
>> SO SO WE HAVEN'T MADE TOO
MANY CHANGES BASED ON
INFRASTRUCTURE JUST BECAUSE I
THINK A LOT
OF THAT GETS DISCOUNTED VERY
QUICKLY BY THE MARKETS AND
BECOMES MORE OF A TRADE THEM
INVESTMENT AND AS YOU KNOW
CHRIS AND WE'RE VERY LONG-TERM
FOCUS OF ALBION.
THAT SAID I THINK IF YOU WANT
TO SPECULATE AND TRADE A LITTLE
BIT THERE ARE CERTAINLY AREAS
WITHIN. THE INFRASTRUCTURE
PROPOSAL IF YOU WILL THAT YOU
CAN PLAY I MEAN FOR EXAMPLE
WE'RE AN ESG PORTFOLIO WITH
ALBION FOR CLIENTS THAT
ARE INTERESTED ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE DOCTORS
AND OF COURSE THAT PORTFOLIO IS
FAIRLY HEAVY. SOME
SOLAR COMPANIES. YOU
BATTERY TECHNOLOGY.
>> YOU KNOW IT AND THE LIKE SO
BECAUSE OF
>> YOU KNOW I THINK YOU CAN
LOOK TOWARD SOME OF THOSE GREEN
ENERGY PLACE, SOME OF THOSE YOU
KNOW ELECTRIC VEHICLES ET
CETERA THAT ARE CLEARLY GOING
TO SEE A LARGE PORTION OF THE
INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING GOING
THEIR WAY I THINK THAT WAS
MENTIONED AGAIN BY JOE BIDEN
YESTERDAY BY PRESIDENT BIDEN
THEY WANT TO REALLY FOCUS ON
SOME OF THIS GREEN
INFRASTRUCTURE THAT'S A GREAT
WAY TO TO MARRY THE LONG TERM
WHICH WE THINK GREEN ENERGY IS
ABSOLUTELY A LONG-TERM
INVESTORS CAN OWN BUT ALSO WITH
THE SHORT-TERM BOOST OF
ADDITIONAL SPENDING TO GET IN
FREE STRUCTURE INTO THAT PART
OF THE ECONOMY WHICH WE THINK
IS IS ACTUALLY A SMART PLAN.
>> AT QUICKLY JASON LET'S
DISCUSS THE FED MINUTES
YESTERDAY, THE FED INDICATING
THAT IT IS GOING TO STICK WITH
ITS EASY MONETARY POLICY I E E
LOWER RATES LOWER
BORROWING COSTS OUT FOR A WHILE
BECAUSE THIS EMPLOYMENT PICTURE
IS NOT YET EXACTLY WHERE IT
ONCE IT TO BE TO GET THIS
RECOVERY REALLY ON THE RIGHT
TRACK DO YOU ANTICIPATE WITH
INFLATION EXPECTED TO RISE BY
2.2% THIS YEAR THAT ESTIMATE
FROM THE FED AND THEN THE
FED'S HAND WELL BEFORE SOONER
THAT IT WILL BE FORCED TO RAISE
RATES SOONER WHICH COULD OF
COURSE WE KNOW HOW TO DOWNWARD
EFFECT ON THE STOCK MARKET.
>> ALL RIGHT. IT'S A
GREAT QUESTION AND YOU KNOW OUR
VIEW HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO
BE THE WERE TAKEN DRONE
POLICIES WORD THAT THEY'RE
GOING TO BE VERY PATIENT AND
LOOK THROUGH THE CYCLICAL BOOST
TO INFLATION THAT'S COMING IS
PROBABLY ONLY GOING TO LAST 2
OR 3 QUARTERS AND THE FED
UNDERSTANDS THAT IT'S GOING TO
BE FLEETING
BUT IT'S NOT A DURABLE CHANGE
IN THE UNDERLYING DYNAMICS WE
SAW THAT THAT MEANS YESTERDAY
THERE WERE
A FEW THAT OFFICIALS HAVE SAID
YOU KNOW WHAT THIS INFLATION
COMING MIGHT BE BIGGER THAN WE
EXPECTED THERE SOME STRONG BASE
EFFECT THERE'S THERE'S SOME
SUPPLY-DEMAND IMBALANCES THAT
COULD PUSH UP INFLATION OVER
THE
NEAR TERM BUT AN EQUAL AMOUNT
OF FAT PARTICIPANTS SAID YES,
BUT WE'LL GET BACK INTO IT
STRUCK TE'O FORCES THAT PUT
DISINFLATIONARY FORCES LIKE
TECH HOW A GENE DEMOGRAPHICS
AND GLOBALIZATION. THINGS THAT
HAVE KEPT PRICES BELOW 2% FOR
THE BETTER PART LOST IT
TEEN YEARS WHICH HAS BEEN
SOMETHING THE FED HAS STRUGGLED
WITH DESPITE THEIR AGGRESSIVE
MONETARY POLICY FOR A LONG TIME
SO I THINK THE REALITY IS THAT
THIS IS GOING TO SHORT-TERM
BUMP TO INFLATION.
THE FED UNDERSTANDS THAT
THEY'RE GOING TO LOOK THROUGH
THAT AND SEE ON THE OTHER SIDE
THAT WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO
GET BACK TO MORE LIKE 2% OR
LESS THAN 2% THE FED IS TRYING
TO GET AVERAGE OF 2% WHICH
MEANS THEY'RE GOING TO LET IT
RUN HOT FOR A WHILE AS WE SAID
ON THIS PROGRAM SEVERAL TIMES
THE MARKET'S GOING TO TEST THAT
FRAMEWORK THIS YEAR WITHOUT
QUESTION BUT I DON'T THINK
THAT'S GOING TO BLINK AND WE'RE
GOING TO SEE THEM HOLD RATES